JC-CT Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not confident that will work out...but we'll see. Lol me neither. But this thing is kinda unpredictable in its pinwheeling llcs. Not really the kind of look I like for widespread high totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, JC-CT said: Lol me neither. But this thing is kinda unpredictable in its pinwheeling llcs. Not really the kind of look I like for widespread high totals. Pretty good rule of thumb is that when Albany gets over 18", I won't. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Just a slight nudge east and we are good. GGEM gets the good SW of us into NYC. Lol, nice screwgy for CT on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My point is, look at the RGEM and euro snow output...the heaviest now extends further ne into Maine. That was not the case yesterday. This is becausw the H7 low matures more slowly. However what we need at this point is simply a further east track, rather than a slower capture. What has happened is that while the system has trended towards a slower maturation, which is good, it has also trended north, which is not. This is why NH and ME are availing of the slower capture by way of heavier snows and we aren't. I understand, warned about this a few days ago. My main concern then was too much warm air and eventual dryslot, and watching the ccb snow itself out way west and north. now some h7 maps look close to that. Basically a hugger for all intents and purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: We’ve gotten big hits. Both 2011 storms we were in the deform pivots. We got bombed Feb and Mar 01. Maybe 2021 will be our next big year. They speak in years and we speak in decades. I think they got nailed with the jackpot four times in about one month just a few years ago. Congrats dendrite is a misnomer being perpetuated by the fake news media to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Can’t find a single outlet going more than 2-5” here.... NW folks getting their revenge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just from an observation standpoint, the wind continues. Obviously not as strong as the past 2 days, but steady and gusty all night long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 17 minutes ago, Hoth said: Lol, nice screwgy for CT on that. On everything, it happens sometimes. Climo favored area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Looks like nammy is ticking se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Well.. 4"-8" is nothing to shake a stick at for December 1-2. Yes... It kind of is a let down when they had the bigger Snows into most of CT. Could it shift east slightly at the last second? Maybe. But, if that happens, we will only be surprised and excited for that shift. In the end... This is still a great way to get Snoe for the rest of the North East Region. There will be more, and , with this set up...we should have our turn in Southern New England. Im still excited for this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks like nammy is ticking se. Looks warm though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks like nammy is ticking se. bit more snow on the front end around here....definitely cooler to start Midlevels warm pretty quickly, lots of sleet even up into central NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: They speak in years and we speak in decades. I think they got nailed with the jackpot four times in about one month just a few years ago. Congrats dendrite is a misnomer being perpetuated by the fake news media to our south SE NH has had some biggies of 20+. It’s just cycles. We don’t do too well with the 30” ones though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Yeah NAM jogging a little less amped. 06z was pretty zonked though so not a total surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Why is it so warm at the surface in the middle of the night with heavy precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Spanks45 said: bit more snow on the front end around here....definitely cooler to start Still punches the dry slot into our fannies. Maybe it can get the ccb going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Nice 1-3”/2-4” on front end down in SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: SE NH has had some biggies of 20+. It’s just cycles. We don’t do too well with the 30” ones though. Did he move here after 07-08? That was the season where congrats dendrite really started...though it wasn't coastals obviously that year...just a barrage of SWFEs that kept jackpotting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Looks weak Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3km NAM is still very very torchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 big dry slot monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Still punches the dry slot into our fannies. Maybe it can get the ccb going. really warm at the surface, raining everywhere except Litchfield county....either the models are missing the colder surface temps or they are picking up on the warm ocean/sound temps being so early in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks weak Monday morning. Nam has an open low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Spanks45 said: really warm at the surface, raining everywhere except Litchfield county....either the models are missing the colder surface temps or they are picking up on the warm ocean/sound temps being so early in the season I don't buy the warmth at the surface... though the 3km NAM typically handles 2m temps the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: 3km NAM is still very very torchy. That cooked us twice up here so far this season with a lot more mixed precip than expected in November. Be interesting to see what the HRRR-X has.... as unstable as that thing is if those thermals go with the 3km NAM once inside 36 hours its something to take seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 30 minutes ago, Hoth said: Lol, nice screwgy for CT on that. Doubt it plays out like that. NYC gets more than Boston and Hartford. Usually only happens in suppression or lows stalling see of LI like 1888 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Looks slower redeveloping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 You get a nice h7/h85 track to go underneath but you’re so badly torched from the waa that you can never recover in time to benefit from it. Gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I don't buy the warmth at the surface... though the 3km NAM typically handles 2m temps the best. lots of 32-34 readings around west of the river, It could just as easily be 30-31 readings with drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 So early in the season, I got to go with climo. Been burnt too many times with that warm nose. Down here in RI, I never expect anything substantial in snow totals until after Christmas. But any frozen stuff I can get this early in the season... I’ll take it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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