40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Everything has moved to that idea but agree it’s too far. Expect a bounce back today. Pray. I don't agree with you. Nothing has moved towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: UK has lead the way. I see the NWS has us in the 8-12 inch range for both systems....more like half that if we are luck right looking at things right now, clearly a lot can change, I hope they are right and I am wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: No. Might have trended slightly north if anything. Well, north is same as west ha. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How much did it show for western CT 4-6 inches for most of Fairfield county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't agree with you. Nothing has moved towards it. The tucked in surface with a CT dry slot...yes it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Wow, a whopping 4" up here. Next! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I see the NWS has us in the 8-12 inch range for both systems....more like half that if we are luck right looking at things right now, clearly a lot can change, I hope they are right and I am wrong Knowledgable dudes here say to expect the se ticks to happen later today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 6 to 18 here I could see either.. 12z should be fun I missed tracking snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, Greg said: This ought to be one hell of a festive day of model watching. I think the trends and the typical model biases will show their cards today but in the end I think we do ok. The risks of festive and bridge-jumping are both very real today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 hour ago, BrianW said: That little sliver of 8-12 along the MA/NH border is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, mostman said: That little sliver of 8-12 along the MA/NH border is funny. MS Paint fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The tucked in surface with a CT dry slot...yes it has. Maybe it has on a more westward surface low, I don't even know, but again....nothing has trended towards the notion of a shredded system for New England....which is my apparently very elusive point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, mostman said: That little sliver of 8-12 along the MA/NH border is funny. I think the reason why the weather office did that is because they believe that the higher omega maybe a little south of what some of the hi res models may be showing but obviously this can change on the spin of a dime with future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Greg said: I think the reason why the weather office did that is because they believe that the high omega maybe a little south of what some of the hi res models may be showing but obviously this can change on the spin of a dime. That would be a page out of last season...always a 7-10 split around here. Then the coastal nails dendrite to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe it has on a more westward surface low, I don't even know, but again....nothing has trended towards the notion of a shredded system for New England....which is my apparently very elusive point. A shredded system or not is not what I’m debating. We’ll just shake hands here and pray the later capture verifies, regardless of our points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 14 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: 4-6 inches for most of Fairfield county Thanks. Given the time of year I would take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That would be a page out of last season...always a 7-10 split around here. Then the coastal nails dendrite to the north. Exactly. I'm with you. Just hope that a slightly later capture/ southeast track of the coastal can keep us both in the heavier omega instead of punting it to the Albany to Concord, NH to Portland, ME area. You want that last piece further south around Northeast, Ma to Jaffrey/Fitchburg to just south of Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: A shredded system or not is not what I’m debating. We’ll just shake hands here and pray the later capture verifies, regardless of our points. And I'm not debating a track too close for huge sne snows...in fact, I favor it. What we need most is simply further east track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 They have me at 3-12 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: A shredded system or not is not what I’m debating. We’ll just shake hands here and pray the later capture verifies, regardless of our points. Just a slight nudge east and we are good. GGEM gets the good SW of us into NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: And I'm not debating a track too close for huge sne snows...in fact, I favor it. What we need most is simply further east track. we are toast if the waa snow/ice underperforms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That would be a page out of last season...always a 7-10 split around here. Then the coastal nails dendrite to the north. We get nailed a lot less than you think. Rarely do we jackpot on coastals or even close to it. We tend to pile up our 70 inches by adding small events that you don't get down there. Every once in a while we do really well in a coastal, i.e. Jan 201 or Oct 2011 but usually it is you down there over to ORH that gets the best, and then the crazy deform that always ends up in VT and ENY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well, heading out to soccer tourney in Lancaster. Ma. 8:00 game today and 8:00, 11:00 tomorow. Should be pleasant to stand in 20’s and wind . Enjoy the SE trends as they come in on 12z runs. Best of luck to the ladies. Then enjoy your foot. Siggy ice still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Just a slight nudge east and we are good. GGEM gets the good SW of us into NYC. Where’s the Jan 15 east jog when we need it? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: we are toast if the waa snow/ice underperforms My point is, look at the RGEM and euro snow output...the heaviest now extends further ne into Maine. That was not the case yesterday. This is becausw the H7 low matures more slowly. However what we need at this point is simply a further east track, rather than a slower capture. What has happened is that while the system has trended towards a slower maturation, which is good, it has also trended north, which is not. This is why NH and ME are availing of the slower capture by way of heavier snows and we aren't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Where’s the Jan 15 east jog when we need it? Not until tomorrow if it played out like that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, JC-CT said: Not until tomorrow if it played out like that lol I'm not confident that will work out...but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, mahk_webstah said: We get nailed a lot less than you think. Rarely do we jackpot on coastals or even close to it. We tend to pile up our 70 inches by adding small events that you don't get down there. Every once in a while we do really well in a coastal, i.e. Jan 201 or Oct 2011 but usually it is you down there over to ORH that gets the best, and then the crazy deform that always ends up in VT and ENY. We’ve gotten big hits. Both 2011 storms we were in the deform pivots. We got bombed Feb and Mar 01. Maybe 2021 will be our next big year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Where’s the Jan 15 east jog when we need it? I mean, what is 30 miles over 36 hours? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Best of luck to the ladies. Then enjoy your foot. Siggy ice still on the table It’s frigid. But good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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