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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Don't see spread yet, just the mean. Mean would be great for you.

Might almost taint ORH on the mean. Close call. But the GFS suite is definitely the warmest right now. 

I still have a feeling we're gonna need some buffer in the final 36-48 hours. That's a really vigorous ULL that will produce plenty of SE convection. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Might almost taint ORH on the mean. Close call. But the GFS suite is definitely the warmest right now. 

I still have a feeling we're gonna need some buffer in the final 36-48 hours. That's a really vigorous ULL that will produce plenty of SE convection. 

Yeah some ticks south, before the inevitable north trend perhaps. 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't see how the interior to CNE for now still isn't favored and I say this as someone who would benefit from a south tick. I expect a tickle or two back north on Sat guidance. Just my guess. 

Yeah. We're looking at a powerful ULL and it is dec 1-2. Really early in season. I feel like there's going to want to be a tug north...I've always felt ptype issues are the main worry for anyone south of MA/NH border rather than suppression. 

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