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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Most likely.  Was just shocked to see how warm the mid-levels were with that heavy WAA precip.  

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3km is warmer than the 12km. Idk if I buy it being that warm, but I wouldn’t just toss it like he did...maybe keep it in the back of my mind and see how the 12z models trend way upstairs. The 3k even tries to mix up to CON.

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Hopefully we'll see some shifts SE with the next set.

IIRC correctly, the Messenger ticks were most pronounced as the event was unfolding (citing a lot of RUC and radar images), along with comments along the lines of 'like the NAM showed 2 days ago'.  I'd just whimper into my coffee as this occurred. 

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Hopefully we'll see some shifts SE with the next set.

IIRC correctly, the Messenger ticks were most pronounced as the event was unfolding (citing a lot of RUC and radar images), along with comments along the lines of 'like the NAM showed 2 days ago'.  I'd just whimper into my coffee as this occurred. 

Lol, less wiggle room to handle those error bars in your old hood, Mike. Sip your coffee with confidence, even élan, for this one. 

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is really targeting Dendrite WSW to Albany area. 

From there through the Berks/NW CT this will be something. 

Being tucked as it's slated, unless something crazy like the 00z NAM plays out, it will go down as a 'solid start' for the bulk of SNE.

Nice way to start the season.

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48 minutes ago, dendrite said:

3km is warmer than the 12km. Idk if I buy it being that warm, but I wouldn’t just toss it like he did...maybe keep it in the back of my mind and see how the 12z models trend way upstairs. The 3k even tries to mix up to CON.

An inch by my area?

Tossed as far as the eye can see.

I actually forecasted some sleet into s NH, but those totals are absurd.

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19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

6z Euro? 

What are it’s thermals for WAA thump near NH border

It's all snow up there on the thump. Basically N of pike looks pretty snowy on 06z euro for the WCB. 

It is trending a little better with the ULL snows too. Starting to tighten it up a bit. Best zone is from dendrite to ALB as Scooter said, but it starts trying to wrap into SNE as we go through Monday night. I could see an additional several inches for many. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's all snow up there on the thump. Basically N of pike looks pretty snowy on 06z euro for the WCB. 

It is trending a little better with the ULL snows too. Starting to tighten it up a bit. Best zone is from dendrite to ALB as Scooter said, but it starts trying to wrap into SNE as we go through Monday night. I could see an additional several inches for many. 

How did it trend from 00z?

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11 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

1-3 for New York City? Lol you guys are so biased!

biased...more like intelligent. Ray is a phenomenal forecaster who uses absolutely zero bias in his forecasts. He devotes a great deal of time into making (and what usually end up being) very solid calls. Go stick to your ridiculous snow maps and let the people who actually forecast based on science/meteorology do their thing. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's all snow up there on the thump. Basically N of pike looks pretty snowy on 06z euro for the WCB. 

It is trending a little better with the ULL snows too. Starting to tighten it up a bit. Best zone is from dendrite to ALB as Scooter said, but it starts trying to wrap into SNE as we go through Monday night. I could see an additional several inches for many. 

Will do you believe the ULL and it’s associated WCB are still the biggest wildcard left with this system 

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

An inch by my area?

Tossed as far as the eye can see.

I actually forecasted some sleet into s NH, but those totals are absurd.

You know how the nammy works...it’s usually the warmest in that 700-825 layer with WAA. It seems to verify about half the time. But the 3k is a good 1-2C warmer than it’s lower res cousin.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You know how the nammy works...it’s usually the warmest in that 700-825 layer with WAA. It seems to verify about half the time. But the 3k is a good 1-2C warmer than it’s lower res cousin.

No way I'm getting 1".

Tossed.

I have no issues with the 12km NAM.

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