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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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Euro is def. maturing the system more slowly...this is a trend that I was cautioning Luke about.

If this continues, amounts will end up somewhat less over NYS, and higher back this way and especially into ME.

Ideally, that trend would continue along with a slightly further se track.

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

i cant post a single map from anywhere right now as my max total size is down to a strange 0.38MB, anyone know why that is, i tried to msg dendrite but didn't hear back

Delete old attachments....click on your profile and select "my attachments" from menu..delete some.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro is def. maturing the system more slowly...this is a trend that I was cautioning Luke about.

If this continues, amount will end up less over NYS, and higher back this way and especially into ME.

Ideally, that trend would continue along with a slightly further se track.

I like it the way it is. ;)   It has a front end of 1.2" (defined as by midnight Sun/Mon). Part #2 is about another 1"....I think it's actually showing more from part 2 out toward Cooperstown this run. 

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the track of the slp and H5, H7 for this storm felt eerily similar to Dec 24-26 2002 and Jan 3-4 2003, i checked CIPS and sure enough they both were in the top 10 analogs.

12-6-2003 being the top analog. That was a different situation though as i believe the airmass was signicantly colder to work with. The other two were boarderline like this storm.

 

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

the track of the slp and H5, H7 for this storm felt eerily similar to Dec 24-26 2002 and Jan 3-4 2003, i checked CIPS and sure enough they both were in the top 10 analogs.

12-6-2003 being the top analog. That was a different situation though as i believe the airmass was signicantly colder to work with. The other two were boarderline like this storm.

 

I'll take a warmer 12-6-2003.....cf porked me in that one...subsidence hell.

12", with 36" 10 mi ese of me.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take a warmer 12-6-2003.....cf porked me in that one...subsidence hell.

12", with 36" 10 mi ese of me.

I don't think that storm was much where I lived below Albany (in Saugerties then). This area here may have done better. So it may have been a further east solution relative to this one.

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22224hrsnwwrng.thumb.jpg.1b7001c3e1e05f20c9ad7555be5a928d.jpg

You dont see this get used to much but i imagine they are going with 24hr totals for this storm, in some places 12 or 24 won't matter. But for CT and surrounding locales probably need the 24 threshold.

I still like 12-25-02 for the best fitting analog. Surface track, H5 and H7 are very close throughout the duration. 12-07-03 might be the top analog for the storm at the 72 hour panel but subjectively, 12-25-02 makes more sense to me. Plus the airmass is closer to that storm and no 12-07-03

 

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