Torch Tiger Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 current weenie threshold (locally) 4-8" = solid 8"+ = banger <4" bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I don’t even know what to say other than I’m in agreement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: current weenie threshold (locally) 4-8" = solid 8"+ = banger <4" bust Fair 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I would bring Taunton up in the BOX map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I'm waiting till early tomorrow to do a map, feel its just too early but i get why news stations and nws has done theirs, completely. The start of the storm is only ~36hrs away but the end is still 3.5 days out or 84hrs. Waiting for the 00z/12z main suites, then ill post a first call, Sat night maybe 2nd call and Sunday morning before the storm begins final call. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I still feel pretty good here. I think we’ll produce nicely in the snow department on Monday and very early Tuesday. This event looks high impact to me outside of the usual SE CT spot. Even there I think they do ok. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I still feel pretty good here. I think we’ll produce nicely in the snow department on Monday and very early Tuesday. This event looks high impact to me outside of the usual SE CT spot. Even there I think they do ok. Everyone will probably end up getting 6+ and the usual hole over Groton/ New Londong of 3-6 or even 1-3. Poor guys. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 10 hours ago, tamarack said: GYX not too enthusiastic, except maybe for the far south/SE parts of its CWA. Even the 10% chance at Farmington is only 3" and the "most likely" is <1". 06z GFS op is a whiff Augusta and points N and W. Still lots of time for jigs and jogs. Stake showing 4" and it's high LE and solid, so we're not whining too much here. Especially since this last event was showing up as a 50° torch-deluge on models several days earlier. Not singling you out, but I thought this was a good post to highlight for everyone how those probabilities work. Since we have an addiction and track these things routinely at days 5-7+, often times we are discussing a storm before the NWS offices are putting out QPF/snow forecasts. So the probabilities that you are referencing here only captured part of the coming storm. We're required to have 72 hours of QPF/snow, so unless someone intentionally adds extra hours of those variables, our snow probabilities will be partial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: Not singling you out, but I thought this was a good post to highlight for everyone how those probabilities work. Since we have an addiction and track these things routinely at days 5-7+, often times we are discussing a storm before the NWS offices are putting out QPF/snow forecasts. So the probabilities that you are referencing here only captured part of the coming storm. We're required to have 72 hours of QPF/snow, so unless someone intentionally adds extra hours of those variables, our snow probabilities will be partial. Indeed, I've been careful to specify exactly what time BOX's forecast is covering before wishcasting it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I was hesitant putting out a map today, but with the travel weekend and all it made sense and I was on for the first call tonight. Me, @SR Airglow, and a few others make up the SCW team. I’m a little higher on snow accumulation than Ryan but I think it’s reasonable. I think the icing (sleet/zr) will be an issue in much of CT. Final call late tomorrow I think. I think that is a very reasonable first call... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Reasonable first call. I believe most of the accumulation for CT will come in on the second half with the storm gets going S of LI and drifts east, and the problem with that is its still 2.5-3.5 days out. Lots of variables with the storm and i think confidence is low/bust potential high. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I was hesitant putting out a map today, but with the travel weekend and all it made sense and I was on for the first call tonight. Me, @SR Airglow, and a few others make up the SCW team. I’m a little higher on snow accumulation than Ryan but I think it’s reasonable. I think the icing (sleet/zr) will be an issue in much of CT. Final call late tomorrow I think. That's a keeper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Reasonable first call. I believe most of the accumulation for CT will come in on the second half with the storm gets going S of LI and drifts west, and the problem with that is its still 2.5-3.5 days out. Lots of variables with the storm and i think confidence is low/bust potential high. That gets lost in all these discussion, Still a lot of time for changes one way or the other, Seems like this one has been tracked for an eternity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 hour ago, dryslot said: If we would taint here i think many would be smashing there phones. You taint there while me and PF frolic in the powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Can't do the EC but this is the GFS/GEM trend for 500mb track at hr 78 for the past 9 cycles. GEM has made huge swings, while GFS has been much more consistent. GEM started very far north then jumped south, then corrected in the middle while GFS was pretty consistent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Wtf is up with Tapatalk? Every pic is a broken link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Can't do the EC but this is the GFS/GEM trend for 500mb track at hr 78 for the past 9 cycles. GEM has made huge swings, while GFS has been much more consistent. GEM started very far north then jumped south, then corrected in the middle while GFS was pretty consistent. Your ggem gif is from 168 to 84 and your gfs gif is from 126 to 78... From 120 and closer they are comparable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Looks like records are going to fall for BDR. The record snowfall amount for the past 70+ years on Dec 1st is a TRACE. Dec 2nd 2.5" and Dec 3rd 1.4". All those are in jeapordy. With Dec 1 the most likely to fall. It's crazy that over 70 years, that many records in december are only T, 1 or 2" of snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Your ggem gif is from 168 to 84 and your gfs gif is from 126 to 78... From 120 and closer they are comparable. hmm im going to blame it on the fever, let me correct this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Your ggem gif is from 168 to 84 and your gfs gif is from 126 to 78... From 120 and closer they are comparable. Gotta watch those 6hr vs 12hr increments when making loops over on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I can see PF now sitting in a rocking chair, Rocking back and forth rubbing his hands together going Oh boy, Oh Boy ,Oh boy! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I’m really excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Where are the U-Wind anomaly progs? Bet this has some pretty decent values with that long duration east flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Gotta watch those 6hr vs 12hr increments when making loops over on TT. Thats so weird because both models have 6hr increments at those times, they just choose to use 6hr for GFS and 12hr GEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Where are the U-Wind anomaly progs? Bet this has some pretty decent values with that long duration east flow. Ginxy posted them a day or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Edit: its because GFS runs every 6 hrs and GEM runs every 12 on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Ginxy posted them a day or two ago. Damn, missed 'em. If anyone has the link I'd love to take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Color me a bit skeptical for now. Could easily see 3-4" of utter crap here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Edit: its because GFS runs every 6 hrs and GEM runs every 12 on TT Because it is a comparison of a particular time to prior runs, and it has the ggem at 0z and 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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