RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: ehhh...it's kinda a broad circulation so hard to really tell where it exactly tracks over but Branford is close enough to LI just a ferry trip away It’s not over your fanny: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That RGEM run was ridiculous. Ticked a little colder too. And that's excluding round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Real interesting map. NYC gets a 16 dot. I am guessing the best of the deform band is that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He went from hoping for sunshine 36 hours ago to embracing the big snow. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: ehhh...it's kinda a broad circulation so hard to really tell where it exactly tracks over but Branford is close enough to LI just a ferry trip away Welcome to the coast (well for this storm at least)It’s always fun to laugh at the inland folks who freak out over the possibility of getting one hour of sleet in between their foot plus of snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 The 12k and 3k NAM both show the 0C 700 mb getting to Boston but crashing back after about 2 hours. The GFS doesn't get the line even to the south coast. The NAM barely gets the 850 up to Boston, while the GFS has it up to MA/NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Welcome to the coast (well for this storm at least)It’s always fun to laugh at the inland folks who freak out over the possibility of getting one hour of sleet in between their foot plus of snow. I get a yard of sleet a season. 3' of pure sleet, every single season. No, you're the liar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Real interesting map. NYC gets a 16 dot. I am guessing the best of the deform band is that way Toss that right into the sound with the other trash. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s not over your fanny: I guess looking closer on the cod map there could be another closed contour over LI...anyways the entire thing is rather broad and that's going to keep the lift much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Toss that right into the sound with the other trash. Models are close now. Probably some waffling north and south but getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Real interesting map. NYC gets a 16 dot. I am guessing the best of the deform band is that way It's an algorithm problem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He went from hoping for sunshine 36 hours ago to embracing the big snow. Such a big gradient between Brian and me 20 miles to the north. A friend of mine runs a big plowing operation. 7 plow trucks. He is in Florida till later Tuesday and just texted me should he come back early. I don't think he would be able to change ticket anyhow with Sunday being such a busy travel day. Slightest shift in storm track puts me in heavy snow. I'm kind of leaning cold dry air eats up northern edge so amounts will not be as high as GFS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I get a yard of sleet a season. 3' of pure sleet, every single season. No, you're the liar. Try living south of the Merritt , that 3’ of sleet ends up being 34f and rain lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, JC-CT said: It's an algorithm problem 1.3" liquid in 3 hrs its a physics problem too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I guess looking closer on the cod map there could be another closed contour over LI...anyways the entire thing is rather broad and that's going to keep the lift much further north. Yea and we are also nitpicking broadness and placement of mid levels from a subpar model too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: It's an algorithm problem That can't see a BL problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It's an algorithm problem Bizzare convective blob of precip. GFS stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: Such a big gradient between Brian and me 20 miles to the north. A friend of mine runs a big plowing operation. 7 plow trucks. He is in Florida till later Tuesday and just texted me should he come back early. I don't think he would be able to change ticket anyhow with Sunday being such a busy travel day. Slightest shift in storm track puts me in heavy snow. I'm kind of leaning cold dry air eats up northern edge so amounts will not be as high as GFS says. Wait 6 hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea and we are also nitpicking broadness and placement of mid levels from a subpar model too. yup lol. oh well...time to go home...no traffic either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Amped said: 1.3" liquid in 3 hrs its a physics problem too. Its obviously an error but ironically the RGEM drops ~20mm from 72-84 in the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: That can't see a BL problem. If I had to guess, it is taking thermals at hour 72 and applying previous 6 hour qpf to it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Try living south of the Merritt , that 3’ of sleet ends up being 34f and rain lol. I lived there growing up. It snows hard for an hour, then changes over. You get a lot of teases in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 congrats nne 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Bizzare convective blob of precip. GFS stuff. 3 lows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 3 lows lol Wouldn't trust the GFS at all but funny RGEM has the same blob. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Its obviously an error but ironically the RGEM drops ~20mm from 72-84 in the same area. RGEM runs out to 72hrs? Gotta watch that cold pool aloft with the ULL. Some sort of a band will form on the NE edge of it. NYCs best shot at getting accumulating snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Winter Storm Watch here for 5-10" of snow/sleet and freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Thats the biggest GFS hit here yet...unless it’s mostly liquid, that’s a Very big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Amped said: RGEM runs out to 72hrs? Gotta watch that cold pool aloft with the ULL. Some sort of a band will form on the NE edge of it. NYCs best shot at getting accumulating snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 @ORH_wxman, when should we expect the Messenger SE ticks begin? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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