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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Hey neighbor...plainville here. Hoping for the same. Up at about 500 ft. Not sure if that will play a role on all snow..or some mixing, but, for Defember first.. I'll take it for sure!

Oh absolutely.  Lots of precip seems to be in the cards for us...we take.  Fun tracking and exciting times for us this weekend.  Enjoy pal.  And A lil elevation never hurts too.

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Thank goodness for folks out here that the WAA frontogenesis in part one of this system looks far more robust than Boxing day ever was, where many picked up less than 3" total.   Almost like we get a SWFE to start and then we'll take any bonus we get from mid level magic thereafter, along with the caution flags associated with downsloping and banding that we're used to in the valley.  Give us the relatively high floor, evenly distributed, and the usual favored spots for dynamic systems can do their thing after that.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He's lurking in the weeds waiting for the token uber amped euro run that jackpots him to Hermiker NY. 

There were some decent little mid-level changes later on in the system there on the EURO and UKMET.  I liked the banding getting further NW on the second round.  

Certainly don’t need to jack, just drop 4-8” while SNE gets 18” and call it a day.  

I doubt the Euro’s 0.87” QPF works out but the UKMET almost had 1.0” at MPV, so not out to lunch.  

The entire SNE crowd does not want to see me and Dryslot start posting more frequently though lol.

This is about the time frame we started seeing some model swings with the other storms...after days of consistency so we’ll see if it takes us anywhere.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Honestly, best of both worlds right on that EURO run?  

SNE gets smoked with the WAA and then mid-level magic for the deeper interior on the second half.... while Weymouth gets absolutely destroyed in CJ magic. 

88CB1585-09C1-4BC2-AE5C-864F61C5487F.thumb.png.7078b398031521a81ebef9a2669f58cb.png

 

Ea Euro Ensemble run has been ticking up on the QPF as more members are coming on further NNW.

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Havent been following closely the past few days but already afraid to look at soundings and fear how this story plays out. even if models show 925/850/700 0c line near or south of any given point, there will inevitably be a warmer layer in there ripping north quicker and farther N than anticipated to muck everything up and when that happens, its basically over for the waa part. then we are relying on the wcb ml banding to make up for the sneaky changeover that happened sooner than predicted. I'm not saying it is time to panic in much of SNE, but it is close.

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

we know

still that is an abortion for that area

Meh. The ASH area is in one of the best spots for front end. Gonna be hard to jack in both parts of the storm.

This is an incredible event for this early in the season so unless someone really gets raked over the coals in an epic subsidence zone and gets like 3" for the entire event...then they aren't getting my empathy. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Meh. The ASH area is in one of the best spots for front end. Gonna be hard to jack in both parts of the storm.

This is an incredible event for this early in the season so unless someone really gets raked over the coals in an epic subsidence zone and gets like 3" for the entire event...then they aren't getting my empathy. 

I don't want empathy 

Just a Continued disco in here that isn't afraid to say wether the shafted areas on models via coastal look to have increasing confidence or not and what needs to be watched 

 

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don't want empathy 

Just a Continued disco in here that isn't afraid to say wether the shafted areas on models via coastal look to have increasing confidence or not and what needs to be watched 

 

The stuff Monday afternoon/night is definitely favored to be better further west. It's looked that way for a few runs now. But eastern spots will probably get in on it late Monday night and early Tuesday. 

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32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There were some decent little mid-level changes later on in the system there on the EURO and UKMET.  I liked the banding getting further NW on the second round.  

Certainly don’t need to jack, just drop 4-8” while SNE gets 18” and call it a day.  

I doubt the Euro’s 0.87” QPF works out but the UKMET almost had 1.0” at MPV, so not out to lunch.  

The entire SNE crowd does not want to see me and Dryslot start posting more frequently though lol.

This is about the time frame we started seeing some model swings with the other storms...after days of consistency so we’ll see if it takes us anywhere.

I always worry about QPF a little at this range. The area of 1"+ rarely ever ends up being as widespread as modeling thinks. I get especially skeptical when the QPF starts tickling 2" over large areas.

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