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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Josh Cingranelli on NBC 30 This morning said they’re thinking mostly snow In CT away from the coast Now as the latest guidance is showing colder air..at least that’s their take currently.  I’m sure when the lull hits it goes to drizzle/or ZR drizzle if below 32 obviously.  

Last couple cycles have ticked a touch warmer in the mid levels so while surface is steady , it results in more pinging. imo only.

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

I think the NAM would even smoke much of CT with round 2. that's some pretty impressive frontogenesis which traverses the state in association the the CBD. 

Mid levels are warm verbatim. The WAA with part 1 brings a healthy melting layer above H85 down there.

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3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

NAM is still a sleetfest s of the pike and def S of the CT MA border

YEah my gut is the pellets tickle the pike region but probably after most of the meat of the WCB has fallen...CT is a tougher call. There's some runs that show a large portion of the WCB as being sleet...but some show a lot of snow first. 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mid levels are warm verbatim. The WAA with part 1 brings a healthy melting layer above H85 down there.

ughhh yeah you're right. Introduces perhaps the possibility of some light (but maybe a tad prolonged) duration of FZDZ? 

What also has me worried here with part 1 and more robust totals is there really isn't much to keep the colder air locked in at the llvls...typically not a good signal for bigger thumps down in CT. 

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not really a fire hose. I don’t see much banding either with the first part. It’s more of a WAA thump. After that’s over it goes to some lighter precip. That could be rain, sleet/freezing rain, or lighter snows depending on where you are. Then later Monday and Monday night and mix goes to snow. That’s when there may be some banded nature to the snow as the mid level lows track favorably. I’m wondering if Monday night is one of those deals where QPF is undermodeled.  That’s a good erly flow with favorable mid levels. 

Yea I agree with this. Could be very meh for part 1. Little accums. All the goods Monday pm and on... 
 

Still thinking the best accums will be west and south —NNJ southern upstate NY NE PA. For our sub forum still thinking this is south of pike special. Highest amounts, south and west. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

DGZ gets slotted a bit so keep that in mind. 

Initial Waa then like Will says east flow development.  We have seen this movie. Some slots for sure but its still a -5/6 anomalous inflow slow mover. Unless we see a standing wave situation its hard to see anyone south of 1 inch qpf. Backside ratios look to be impressive.  RH on the backside through the column is great.

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Just now, jbenedet said:

Yea I agree with this. Could be very meh for part 1. Little accums. All the goods Monday pm and on... 
 

Still thinking the best accums will be west and south —NNJ southern upstate NY NE PA. For our sub forum still thinking this is south of pike special. Highest amounts, south and west. 

Part 1 meh? I think it will do pretty well as long as you don’t expect 10”. I’m not sure pike south does as well as you think given mid level issues.

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5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm glad the seemingly paltry round 2 (in MA) on the NAM is at the relatively useless range of its run.

Congrats NYC as it shows though.

The NAM for the last couple of years has been much better beyond 60 but I’ve found you can only trust it’s solution in that range when it “drum beats” showing virtually the same idea over and over for 3-4 runs.  If you see any sort of waffling it can be tossed.  

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Part 1 meh? I think it will do pretty well as long as you don’t expect 10”. I’m not sure pike south does as well as you think given mid level issues.

I guess I mean in terms of how it stacks up. Much falls as frozen...little stacks up...much wasted. Seems like a 1-3” deal. And then a break, and part 2 is when it all comes together...and south and west looks best for the second half.

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