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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

I didn't realize you were a summer resident.  My brother and I used to take care of some guy's summer place (landscape) back when I was in high school or college.  Taking that first ferry from New London every morning really sucked for kids who really wanted to sleep.  On the plus side, the nanny who's job it seemed consisted of dropping the kids off at tennis camp was really hot, and she'd spend the time lounging at the pool in a really skimpy bathing suit.  Sounds like it a scene from a movie......

That's awesome, Mike, and every word of that description sounds spot on. The landscaping and au pair businesses never slow out there. The nanny drops off the kids for tennis lessons, golf, sailing etc. in the morning, then retires to a pool or hits the beach. They tend to be culled either from the NE boarding school ranks, or recruited from Germany or eastern Europe. I have on a few occasions stumbled upon the latter variety sunbathing nude on my beach. To quote Kramer, "yo yo ma!"

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31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just try to follow and sorry about the very mean response you got . Tact is lacking and we dont know why he is so angry, probably up all night changing poopy diapers. PS you can direct message me and I will answer your questions 

 I imagine you are a youngster learning, we were all there one time. Massachusetts has some pretty grumpy people so be careful 

Seems like you are in a bit better mood today...you must've released all that anger you had from Ryan warning people about the snow potential by taking our advice and spraying all those dog dookies against the fence. I'm glad. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t think any eps member missed the region. Would be a pretty big model failure even at d4.

It's not whiffing. We prob want it a bit south for the inevitable north tick that happens between 48 and 24 hours when he models start sensing all the southern convection....then we get the messenger shuffle inside 24h that ticks it back a shade SE. But you gotta withstand that 48 to 24 trend. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's not whiffing. We prob want it a bit south for the inevitable north tick that happens between 48 and 24 hours when he models start sensing all the southern convection....then we get the messenger shuffle inside 24h that ticks it back a shade SE. But you gotta withstand that 48 to 24 trend. 

Not that Canadian and GFS are overly useful but they seem to show the N and S goal posts. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's not whiffing. We prob want it a bit south for the inevitable north tick that happens between 48 and 24 hours when he models start sensing all the southern convection....then we get the messenger shuffle inside 24h that ticks it back a shade SE. But you gotta withstand that 48 to 24 trend. 

watching models long enough, you know some sort of head fake is coming...It is much better to see the high building right now versus lifting out...90+ hrs feels like an eternity right now

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From the latest BOX AFD just fo posterity 

All eyes are on the latter half of the weekend as unsettled, likely
wintry weather returns to southern New England. All is
predicated on the evolution of a low pressure system that takes
form in the lee of the Rockies on Saturday before crossing the
midwest on Sunday and New England Monday. Along the frontal
boundary a secondary triple point low is generated near the
Delmarva late Sunday which will cross near or adjacent to our
south coast Mon/Tue bringing both rain and snow. Early Sunday
the high moves overhead before being pushed out by the
approaching low. Clouds push in by daybreak ahead of the
precipitation but may be late enough to drop Sunday morning`s
low temps to radiate a few degrees cooler than otherwise. Precip
moves in from west to east by late morning/afternoon into
Sunday evening, with the best chance for heavier precip Sunday
night and Monday. Numerical guidance continues to indicate
potential for our first real impactful winter storm of the
season, though the details are uncertain; as we approach a
significant snowfall is looking like a better and better
probability for interior locations, while several factors would
lead us to believe those in the lower elevations/closer to the
coast will be dealing with some kind of unpleasant snow/rain
combo or mostly rain. The GFS continues to be further north with
the warm low level air, keeping the significant snow confined
mostly to the slopes of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills,
while the EC paints a cooler picture with snow further south but
mostly rain for the south coast/coastal plain. At this point
the forecast will continue to be based on a blend of these
solutions, which would, given the cold antecedent airmass, start
most everyone as snow initially before switching to a rain snow
mix or a all rain outside of northern/western MA. As the system
exits to the east cold air will be wrapped around the backside
on N/NW winds meaning a likely changeover back to snow for most
everyone late Monday into early Tuesday. Given the trend in
recent model runs to slow the progression of the trough and keep
the parent low further north for longer, and the relatively
warm ocean waters this early in the season, am leaning toward a
mainly interior snow event with this system. However, there`s
still plenty to be worked out with this system, including how
strong the winds will be, potentially gusting 25 to 35 mph. Stay
tuned.
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