Monday 12/2 Threat Disco

[ORH_wxman]

Watch the WCB portion from like E CT up through SE NH...it actually tries to get some easterly inflow by the time it reaches that point so it is in the beginning stages of transforming into the CCB. There could be some big time enhancement there for a time. 

[moneypitmike]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It could be sweet Monday night. I think east of the river slots a little Monday with lighter crap falling. Precip shield should broaden later Monday and Monday night. 6z tucked the low closer to Chatham it looked to near stall at the end of its run. Any areas near BOS and south the flipped to rain should go back to snow then. 

That's about 80% of New England

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Hippy ftw.

Yeah--GC cashes in on that.

 

I'm still not seeing this "people waking to pounding snow" on Tuesday morning that Kevin's talking about.  Aside from people working 3rd shift, am I missing something?

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Regionwide foot plus save the coast seems very likely 

I dunno. I'd say outside se mass and immediate coast, regionwide 6"+ is likely. I can still see a lot going wrong with temps on the front end and banding on the back end

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

It's the stupid POS ridiculous God awful should be wiped from model guidance snow maps which are leading to the stuff like "euro being the outlier" and "the notion of significant differences between the models". 

The upper-level features on the GFS and Euro...and all other guidance suggests a fairly robust storm here...while there are some differences in the surface evolution and what transpires post-WAA regime all models suggest robust activity Monday...obviously where depends on what many have already discussed. 

People are going to drool over the Euro showing 15-25''...call the GFS garbage b/c it only shows 10-15' and then be all upset and call the storm a bust b/c they didn't get 15-25'' and say the GFS "actually scored a win b/c it hit totals right"...when in reality all model guidance did a great job with this...just minor details in smaller-scale features. 

Point being Wiz that the Euro has been lead, solid and consistent with features besides snow maps 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lots of Met discussions lol. I always like a great discussion.  You still on the ice train for you?

I think ice gets up into ORH south and east for a time as precip lightens Monday . Big ice maybe Merritt pkwy?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The amount of new posts per hour is one of best indicators of how models are looking for snow in SNE .

We bang 

We also are a couple runs from a Jonestown scenario for half of us 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

It's the stupid POS ridiculous God awful should be wiped from model guidance snow maps which are leading to the stuff like "euro being the outlier" and "the notion of significant differences between the models". 

The upper-level features on the GFS and Euro...and all other guidance suggests a fairly robust storm here...while there are some differences in the surface evolution and what transpires post-WAA regime all models suggest robust activity Monday...obviously where depends on what many have already discussed. 

People are going to drool over the Euro showing 15-25''...call the GFS garbage b/c it only shows 10-15' and then be all upset and call the storm a bust b/c they didn't get 15-25'' and say the GFS "actually scored a win b/c it hit totals right"...when in reality all model guidance did a great job with this...just minor details in smaller-scale features. 

20' or bust

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wizzie rants are the best rants

Any big timing differences regarding starting times?

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

We also are a couple runs from a Jonestown scenario for half of us

One could argue some of us already drank the Coolaid. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's the stupid POS ridiculous God awful should be wiped from model guidance snow maps which are leading to the stuff like "euro being the outlier" and "the notion of significant differences between the models". 

The upper-level features on the GFS and Euro...and all other guidance suggests a fairly robust storm here...while there are some differences in the surface evolution and what transpires post-WAA regime all models suggest robust activity Monday...obviously where depends on what many have already discussed. 

People are going to drool over the Euro showing 15-25''...call the GFS garbage b/c it only shows 10-15' and then be all upset and call the storm a bust b/c they didn't get 15-25'' and say the GFS "actually scored a win b/c it hit totals right"...when in reality all model guidance did a great job with this...just minor details in smaller-scale features. 

If you draw a map with anything less than a foot for I84, I will tie you up with your mouth open and feed you McDonald’s cheeseburgers over and over again....until you gain 10lbs and vomit.

Go big or get fat. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Hoth said:

One could argue some of us already drank the Coolaid. 

So it’s just a matter of time ...if anyone has subscribed to the 12”> or bust logic 

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So it’s just a matter of time ...if anyone has subscribed to the 12”> or bust logic 

 

ASH is in a good spot.

[SouthCoastMA]

It's more fun when the sensitive inland folks are melting while snow is being stolen like candy from a baby. 

[tamarack]

GYX not too enthusiastic, except maybe for the far south/SE parts of its CWA.  Even the 10% chance at Farmington is only 3" and the "most likely" is <1".  06z GFS op is a whiff Augusta and points N and W.  Still lots of time for jigs and jogs.
Stake showing 4" and it's high LE and solid, so we're not whining too much here.  Especially since this last event was showing up as a 50° torch-deluge on models several days earlier.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I dunno. I'd say outside se mass and immediate coast, regionwide 6"+ is likely. I can still see a lot going wrong with temps on the front end and banding on the back end

It’s a complicated setup.... you’re almost relying on two separate mechanisms to produce maximum snow. I’d feel pretty good NW of ORH.. SE is still a questions. 
 

We are also still like 3 days out 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

ASH is in a good spot.

Ya unless u have a much bigger press S from your Shiatstreak (which we have to watch modeling tonite/)

[ineedsnow]

6z EPS about a foot here must be some big members

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

It's more fun when the sensitive inland folks are melting while snow is being stolen like candy from a baby. 

Our day will come. If I score a couple with this one, I’ll consider it a win. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

6z EPS about a foot here must be some big members

Speaking of a big weenie 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya unless u have a much bigger press S from your Shiatstreak (which we have to watch modeling tonite/)

Even if his kids shatted all over the models today, you still crush. Enjoy your 12+++.

[ineedsnow]

SREFS should be fun to look at soon

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So it’s just a matter of time ...if anyone has subscribed to the 12”> or bust logic 

 

So so hard to ignore QPF at this point

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

So so hard to ignore QPF at this point

DGZ gets slotted a bit so keep that in mind. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So so hard to ignore QPF at this point

Often times it is overdone though.  Think of the numerous rainers we have had this fall where models were pumping 3-4” amounts and few got close to those. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Often times it is overdone though.  Think of the numerous rainers we have had this fall where models were pumping 3-4” amounts and few got close to those. 

In winter it can be underdone as well. it’s the lowest scoring parameter. But it’s hard to ignore qpf here based on waa and long duration ull potential. May be more banded in nature but some spots will put up top echelon type amounts.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Often times it is overdone though.  Think of the numerous rainers we have had this fall where models were pumping 3-4” amounts and few got close to those. 

You guys to MHT and ALB look pretty good. You may hang on to steadier precip Monday. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

In winter it can be underdone as well. it’s the lowest scoring parameter. But it’s hard to ignore qpf here based on waa and long duration ull potential. May be more banded in nature but some spots will put up top echelon type amounts.

Any snow is good snow but I’m trying to keep expectations in check.  Still early. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys to MHT and ALB look pretty good. You may hang on to steadier precip Monday. 

RT 2 from north of BOS to ALB has been my favorite zone and still looks great.  

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

In winter it can be underdone as well. it’s the lowest scoring parameter. But it’s hard to ignore qpf here based on waa and long duration ull potential. May be more banded in nature but some spots will put up top echelon type amounts.

I feel like the WAA QPF could be over-done (we see that a lot) but that the mid-level magic stuff is under-done.

[512high]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys to MHT and ALB look pretty good. You may hang on to steadier precip Monday. 

Forgive me...density type for duration? fluff/cement? thanks ahead of time