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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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Banding and where it sets up is always the wildcard Wiz.  And it can set up anywhere.  I think the way it looks now...inland areas away from the water, are looking very good.  If you get into the banding...sure you’re going to maximize your amounts More than those who don’t.  


Feb 13 we weren’t forecast to get into the banding....but we all know how that worked out. Point is, it’s very hard ahead of time to know where those features actually set up?  

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

How many states of emergencies do we usually get for snow :);) 

Lol..you know Kevin...the take away from his post is it’s looking good, and looking long duration.  

 

Just now, ineedsnow said:

18 plus whoever gets into the good banding I think.. where that is probably wont know until it starts

Yup..no different than any Big Dog system. And if and how it slows down/or stalls is going to be critical.

 

 

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It’s not really a fire hose. I don’t see much banding either with the first part. It’s more of a WAA thump. After that’s over it goes to some lighter precip. That could be rain, sleet/freezing rain, or lighter snows depending on where you are. Then later Monday and Monday night and mix goes to snow. That’s when there may be some banded nature to the snow as the mid level lows track favorably. I’m wondering if Monday night is one of those deals where QPF is undermodeled.  That’s a good erly flow with favorable mid levels. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not really a fire hose. I don’t see much banding either with the first part. It’s more of a WAA thump. After that’s over it goes to some lighter precip. That could be rain, sleet/freezing rain, or lighter snows depending on where you are. Then later Monday and Monday night and mix goes to snow. That’s when there may be some banded nature to the snow as the mid level lows track favorably. I’m wondering if Monday night is one of those deals where QPF is undermodeled.  That’s a good erly flow with favorable mid levels. 

That’s the part we are referring to. Legro was talking about. It’s legit and people will wake up WTF’d Tuesday morning when it’s still pounding 

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19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Banding and where it sets up is always the wildcard Wiz.  And it can set up anywhere.  I think the way it looks now...inland areas away from the water, are looking very good.  If you get into the banding...sure you’re going to maximize your amounts mii ok re than those who don’t.  


Feb 13 we weren’t forecast to get into the banding....but we all know how that worked out. Point is, it’s very hard ahead of time to know where those features actually set up?  

It certainly is difficult...although I don't think it's impossible. I think the more difficult aspect perhaps is determining where the pivot point (if one occurs) occurs...that's when you get your axis of extreme totals. 

As it stands now...my wager would be that the best banding ends up either north of CT...or just into northern CT. One thing to keep in mind too that if there is going to be a region of extreme lift...there has to be a region of extreme subsidence...I know maybe it's too far out to look at details regarding bufkit but there are the signals of subsidence...if anything I think it can be more difficult to determine the subsidence aspect. 

But anyways...one thing I think we know for sure if the closer you get to the CT coast...the less snow you'll get lol. 

 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not really a fire hose. I don’t see much banding either with the first part. It’s more of a WAA thump. After that’s over it goes to some lighter precip. That could be rain, sleet/freezing rain, or lighter snows depending on where you are. Then later Monday and Monday night and mix goes to snow. That’s when there may be some banded nature to the snow as the mid level lows track favorably. I’m wondering if Monday night is one of those deals where QPF is undermodeled.  That’s a good erly flow with favorable mid levels. 

This should be pinned in the thread lol...pretty perfect summation of how this will transpire. 

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not really a fire hose. I don’t see much banding either with the first part. It’s more of a WAA thump. After that’s over it goes to some lighter precip. That could be rain, sleet/freezing rain, or lighter snows depending on where you are. Then later Monday and Monday night and mix goes to snow. That’s when there may be some banded nature to the snow as the mid level lows track favorably. I’m wondering if Monday night is one of those deals where QPF is undermodeled.  That’s a good erly flow with favorable mid levels. 

Spot on

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s the part we are referring to. Legro was talking about. It’s legit and people will wake up WTF’d Tuesday morning when it’s still pounding 

Still pounding on Tuesday morning?  What model is showing that?

Meanwhile, I have a noon flight out of BOS on Tuesday.  Not worried at all about departures; hopefully there won't be any impact from a back-log of planes not to getting in.  Not sure how airlines make up for that....there are only so many seat available for rebooking.  How do they ever catch up?

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6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Still pounding on Tuesday morning?  What model is showing that?

Meanwhile, I have a noon flight out of BOS on Tuesday.  Not worried at all about departures; hopefully there won't be any impact from a back-log of planes not to getting in.  Not sure how airlines make up for that....there are only so many seat available for rebooking.  How do they ever catch up?

Everything has snow into Tuesday morning. Please please put the FV3 away 

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It could be sweet Monday night. I think east of the river slots a little Monday with lighter crap falling. Precip shield should broaden later Monday and Monday night. 6z tucked the low closer to Chatham it looked to near stall at the end of its run. Any areas near BOS and south the flipped to rain should go back to snow then. 

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Rather sharp cutoffs to northern and southern sides of warning snows. 

Lots of panic melts on way w models waffling later 

still would take just north of hunter mtn for. Locking up 8” at this timeframe 

you can see the models bump qpf in Berks , N Catskills 

lots of Potential in SNE . Banding maybe rather stationary late Monday .

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