WinterWolf Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Banding and where it sets up is always the wildcard Wiz. And it can set up anywhere. I think the way it looks now...inland areas away from the water, are looking very good. If you get into the banding...sure you’re going to maximize your amounts More than those who don’t. Feb 13 we weren’t forecast to get into the banding....but we all know how that worked out. Point is, it’s very hard ahead of time to know where those features actually set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 18 plus whoever gets into the good banding I think.. where that is probably wont know until it starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 These Slow moving, stacked East flow firehoses are always prolific snow producers. They don’t happen that often, but when they do go back and look at past results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: How many states of emergencies do we usually get for snow Lol..you know Kevin...the take away from his post is it’s looking good, and looking long duration. Just now, ineedsnow said: 18 plus whoever gets into the good banding I think.. where that is probably wont know until it starts Yup..no different than any Big Dog system. And if and how it slows down/or stalls is going to be critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 NNE needs some ICON type solution where the closed H5 low goes right over SNE. Ain’t happening James. That confluence is exactly what we don’t want to see from here to Dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 We haven't had a slow mover like this in some time - if it stays as modeled. Still a ways out for the later part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 It’s not really a fire hose. I don’t see much banding either with the first part. It’s more of a WAA thump. After that’s over it goes to some lighter precip. That could be rain, sleet/freezing rain, or lighter snows depending on where you are. Then later Monday and Monday night and mix goes to snow. That’s when there may be some banded nature to the snow as the mid level lows track favorably. I’m wondering if Monday night is one of those deals where QPF is undermodeled. That’s a good erly flow with favorable mid levels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not really a fire hose. I don’t see much banding either with the first part. It’s more of a WAA thump. After that’s over it goes to some lighter precip. That could be rain, sleet/freezing rain, or lighter snows depending on where you are. Then later Monday and Monday night and mix goes to snow. That’s when there may be some banded nature to the snow as the mid level lows track favorably. I’m wondering if Monday night is one of those deals where QPF is undermodeled. That’s a good erly flow with favorable mid levels. That’s the part we are referring to. Legro was talking about. It’s legit and people will wake up WTF’d Tuesday morning when it’s still pounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s the part we are referring to. Legro was talking about. It’s legit and people will wake up WTF’d Tuesday morning when it’s still pounding As long as it's consentual 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Banding and where it sets up is always the wildcard Wiz. And it can set up anywhere. I think the way it looks now...inland areas away from the water, are looking very good. If you get into the banding...sure you’re going to maximize your amounts mii ok re than those who don’t. Feb 13 we weren’t forecast to get into the banding....but we all know how that worked out. Point is, it’s very hard ahead of time to know where those features actually set up? It certainly is difficult...although I don't think it's impossible. I think the more difficult aspect perhaps is determining where the pivot point (if one occurs) occurs...that's when you get your axis of extreme totals. As it stands now...my wager would be that the best banding ends up either north of CT...or just into northern CT. One thing to keep in mind too that if there is going to be a region of extreme lift...there has to be a region of extreme subsidence...I know maybe it's too far out to look at details regarding bufkit but there are the signals of subsidence...if anything I think it can be more difficult to determine the subsidence aspect. But anyways...one thing I think we know for sure if the closer you get to the CT coast...the less snow you'll get lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not really a fire hose. I don’t see much banding either with the first part. It’s more of a WAA thump. After that’s over it goes to some lighter precip. That could be rain, sleet/freezing rain, or lighter snows depending on where you are. Then later Monday and Monday night and mix goes to snow. That’s when there may be some banded nature to the snow as the mid level lows track favorably. I’m wondering if Monday night is one of those deals where QPF is undermodeled. That’s a good erly flow with favorable mid levels. This should be pinned in the thread lol...pretty perfect summation of how this will transpire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not really a fire hose. I don’t see much banding either with the first part. It’s more of a WAA thump. After that’s over it goes to some lighter precip. That could be rain, sleet/freezing rain, or lighter snows depending on where you are. Then later Monday and Monday night and mix goes to snow. That’s when there may be some banded nature to the snow as the mid level lows track favorably. I’m wondering if Monday night is one of those deals where QPF is undermodeled. That’s a good erly flow with favorable mid levels. Spot on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s the part we are referring to. Legro was talking about. It’s legit and people will wake up WTF’d Tuesday morning when it’s still pounding Still pounding on Tuesday morning? What model is showing that? Meanwhile, I have a noon flight out of BOS on Tuesday. Not worried at all about departures; hopefully there won't be any impact from a back-log of planes not to getting in. Not sure how airlines make up for that....there are only so many seat available for rebooking. How do they ever catch up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Euro still a great front end dump for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 This looks great, sub zone and all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 6z Euro absolutely crushes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, ineedsnow said: 6z Euro absolutely crushes Nothing but noise from 0z through 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, JC-CT said: Nothing but noise from 0z through 90 I want to lock it in but still far in reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Still pounding on Tuesday morning? What model is showing that? Meanwhile, I have a noon flight out of BOS on Tuesday. Not worried at all about departures; hopefully there won't be any impact from a back-log of planes not to getting in. Not sure how airlines make up for that....there are only so many seat available for rebooking. How do they ever catch up? Everything has snow into Tuesday morning. Please please put the FV3 away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Man, those were some tasty overnight runs. We coastal folks keep expectations tempered, but perhaps we can get thermals to tick down a touch over the next day or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, ineedsnow said: I want to lock it in but still far in reality 6-9" from the waa starts in 2.5 days and ends at 72 hours. If it stays cold, it's gonna snow like a mfer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, ineedsnow said: I want to lock it in but still far in reality How close are we to though? I mean, when the GFS and the Euro appear to be at least on the same page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Lotta QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Euro through 90 has 14 here and still going oh how I pray.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 12 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Euro still a great front end dump for sne I like the front end thump for us...it should rip for several hours Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 It could be sweet Monday night. I think east of the river slots a little Monday with lighter crap falling. Precip shield should broaden later Monday and Monday night. 6z tucked the low closer to Chatham it looked to near stall at the end of its run. Any areas near BOS and south the flipped to rain should go back to snow then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 The front end dump definitely looks to be focused further west, as far as the best stuff is concerned. Then Monday later in the day it cranks for eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 6z RGEM out to 84 is definitely bun worthy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: 6z RGEM out to 84 is definitely bun worthy! Looks very cold thru 54 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Rather sharp cutoffs to northern and southern sides of warning snows. Lots of panic melts on way w models waffling later still would take just north of hunter mtn for. Locking up 8” at this timeframe you can see the models bump qpf in Berks , N Catskills lots of Potential in SNE . Banding maybe rather stationary late Monday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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