SnowBrosForever Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 OK, Question here. Normally when I pull up NWS, I can get a forecast for my ZIPcode. Tonight, when I type in the ZIP, the page defaults to "Coastal Cumberland" instead of the ZIP, as in Coastal Cumberland County, of which we are a part. And suddenly we are looking at 9-16 inches through tomorrow afternoon, which isn't close to what I am seeing on the latest HRRR or the NAM. Never seen this NWS default before in my (admittedly) limited experience watching the weather up here in Pine Tree Land. Is this done to save NWS time? Or because the forecasts across these contiguous ZIPS are virtually identical? Or is this some kind of alternate met universe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 I wasn’t expecting much personally in my location - but it did end up being a disappointment when “part 2” was on the table for almost 2 days worth of modeling and then suddenly disappeared a few hours before it’s going to happen. Would rather have it just been modeled out to sea earlier on. But that’s emotion talking, not science. You have to wonder if this storm will end up being a case study for the scientists and engineers who work on the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 2 hours ago, bobbutts said: That 2-4 tonight and 1-2 they have for me tonight into tomorrow isn't happening is it? I’ll believe it when I’m shoveling it, or sweeping it off the steps which is more likely...or even more likely that I’m sweeping off the old snow that has blown into the steps. This round 2 has been dead to us since the downsloping started kicking in this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Surface map of our power house storm this link shows the current location and intensity of our coastal storm, it has intensified about 4mb/hour in the last hour dropping from 987 to 983mb but is a lot further south than the models showed it intensifying. This storm is coming much closer to CHH than modeled, the 00z NAM keeps the heavy snow potential in line with the Cape. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Pressure in Harwich is down to 993.5mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Models are not matching up the QPF shield coming up from the southeast about to rock CHH well. They are hours late with this part of the low. I think the models have been poor today in their handling of the upper level support and real center of the low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Pivot over my head baby, pivot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Just looked out the window to check out the snow, and a fox ran across the yard. Clearly a good omen for tonight, and the rest of the winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBrosForever Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 We see them all the time at our place. Some people even feed them, so they feel quite entitled to stroll across patios, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Latest observations compared to models suggests the latest guidance other than the 00z NAM are off with the surface low evolution and precipitation shield. This is coming west. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The only storm I remember school being cancelled in high school was the Blizzard of 2005 when they cancelled school for the entire work week. The storm happened over the weekend and dropped over 24" widespread from eastern CT to the Cape, highways were not plowed enough to ensure safe travel so they cancelled the entire week. The winter of 2000-2001 or 2001-2002 we had a winter storm warning in place and school was cancelled, not sure it was determined the prior night or that morning, but we got nothing that storm. It went south. Again I graduated high school twelve years ago. This offers explanation... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Anybody know when BOX will pull back from that ridiculous snow forecast? 8in is not happening here. I'm kind of surprised that they issued that at 5:45pm when a lot of the 18z suite had come out already and clearly showed the goods headed East out into the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 So...this is what an occluded POS looks like. Cool. Jk I already knew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 JC it is not occluded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: JC it is not occluded. And you aren't a It's just getting tapped into the gulf stream. This could be 50" for Cape Cod, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Just now, JC-CT said: And you aren't a It's just getting tapped into the gulf stream. This could be 50" for Cape Cod, MA. Occlusion means at every level, the surface center is hundreds of miles southeast of the region and down to 981mb. Bombing out 4mb/hour and 8mb/2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Occlusion means at every level, the surface center is hundreds of miles southeast of the region and down to 981mb. Bombing out 4mb/hour and 8mb/2 hours. It def. isn't occluded, but that doesn't mean it is hitting us. Irony is that my first call looks perfect...I stressed the dual forcing from cf to the east and mid levels to the west in RD 2. Shame on me for trusting guidance 24-36 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 The low is way too east to make a dent for coastal regions. It also ruined our chances down here for several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Occlusion means at every level, the surface center is hundreds of miles southeast of the region and down to 981mb. Bombing out 4mb/hour and 8mb/2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: The low is way too east to make a dent for coastal regions. It also ruined our chances down here for several inches. Maybe for NYC area, not for Cape and Islands, models sling shot the surface low NW and the further south this happens the better chance for Cape and Islands to cash in big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Occlusion means at every level, the surface center is hundreds of miles southeast of the region and down to 981mb. Bombing out 4mb/hour and 8mb/2 hours. Yay fractions..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: The low is way too east to make a dent for coastal regions. It also ruined our chances down here for several inches. We got a nice event out of it, but relatively speaking, there was a great deal of potential left on the table. immense energy essentially produced west and east of us, skipping over us in the atmosphere. We were left with WAA to scrounged a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: 3z surface pressure pattern check out this link Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Maybe for NYC area, not for Cape and Islands, models sling shot the surface low NW and the further south this happens the better chance for Cape and Islands to cash in big time. You will get like 1-3" of slush on the back end...it will take forever to flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Well I haven't looked at a model in a while, but I thought when the cold front overtakes the warm front that's occlusion. I don't really know these things, I'm more into debits and credits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Just now, JC-CT said: Well I haven't looked at a model in a while, but I thought when the cold front overtakes the warm front that's occlusion. I don't really know these things, I'm more into debits and credits. Not necessarily, when it is stacked in all levels, surface to H5 and the centers are aligned in the column that is occlusion like with hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 Just now, JC-CT said: Well I haven't looked at a model in a while, but I thought when the cold front overtakes the warm front that's occlusion. I don't really know these things, I'm more into debits and credits. The parent system that clobbered NYS is occluded, but the coastal is just taking off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The parent system that clobbered NYS is occluded, but the coastal is just taking off. Yeah down to 981mb, according to the observations that Plymouth State Weather center uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Buoy SE of ACK at the benchmark, is showing a pressure of 989mb as of 3z. This would suggest the PSU weather center surface analysis is actually on point and the SPC is still off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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