Torch Tiger Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 lol, ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 FWIW 18Z GFS Weatherbell total snowfall product. Assuming 10/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS was congrats Ray. I eagerly await getting back to my computer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: GFS has and likely always will suck for nor'easters. Tossed. He’s comparing gfs and icon. That’s like putting the bengals against the dolphins to showcase what the NFL is all about. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Vs ICON In all honesty the ICON snowfall map is what I expect since it gives me little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Took an early stab at a map for CT. Probably could have just did first call at work tomorrow but I'll be busy in the evening and most of Saturday (as usual). I am very intrigued by the WAA snow potential...some pretty solid lift and plenty of moisture. This only includes the WAA snow and not Monday's or phase two's output. Early thoughts are it's more rain or a mix here with major snows north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I eagerly await getting back to my computer Crushed you and i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: How much for us coasties? Looked like several inches for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He’s comparing gfs and icon. That’s like putting the bengals against the dolphins to showcase what the NFL is all about. Haha you are right. Just making an observation that’s all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Full on weenie mode. You know ...at times like these the multiple model runs and swings are almost as fun as the storm itself. just keep me in the game another 36 hours . Don’t mind my spot in Nashua on this . Back up spot Bedford,Ma 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Full on weenie mode. You know ...at times like these the multiple model runs and swings are almost as fun as the storm itself. just keep me in the game another 36 hours . Don’t mind my spot in Nashua on this . Back up spot Bedford,Ma I’ve always enjoyed the chase. So much so that the actual event sometimes ends up feeling ordinary. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ve always enjoyed the chase. So much so that the actual event sometimes ends up feeling ordinary. The sadness when the snow starts ending is sad. U know the feeling lol. Hypothetically Especially if the future pattern doesn’t look so good. I call that post snowstorm depression. Model tracking is deff one of the funnest parts and also frustrating at the same time haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ve always enjoyed the chase. So much so that the actual event sometimes ends up feeling ordinary. Yeah tracking ea run is the part I like learning as we go, Once the actual event is here, I start looking for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: The sadness when the snow starts ending is sad. U know the feeling lol. Hypothetically Especially if the future pattern doesn’t look so good. I call that post snowstorm depression. Model tracking is deff one of the funnest parts and also frustrating at the same time haha My wife has a picture of me right as the 4/1/97 storm was ending. I looked like a guy that wasn’t gonna see snow for 7-8 months... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: My wife has a picture of me right as the 4/1/97 storm was ending. I looked like a guy that wasn’t gonna see snow for 7-8 months... Haha you should deff share that one day. Of course if you want to. I could imagine. I’m 22 and people look at me like I’m crazy when I say I’m sad the snow is ending. Most people don’t like the snow. Oh well too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: My wife has a picture of me right as the 4/1/97 storm was ending. I looked like a guy that wasn’t gonna see snow for 7-8 months... I was stuck in Roscoe,NY 17 was shutdown. Epic spring storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 GFS MOS 8-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 45 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The Southeast convection is going to play a pretty large role in this, because the ridging ahead of the upper low factors into both the north/south and the east/west position of low pressure. The higher heights ahead of the upper low would suggest a threat for a more west low track. Isn't that more pronounced with Miller a systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Isn't that more pronounced with Miller a systems? Certainly, but there is going to be convection with this one. It's rarely handled well by NWP, especially a couple days out. It's definitely not my specialty, but I would hazard a guess that's why we always seem to be seeing subtle (sometimes not so subtle) shifting run to run. These higher resolution NWP systems are very sensitive to convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: GFS MOS 8-4 That's a lotta muthafukkas! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: 12/7/03 That was a nice one alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 24 minutes ago, dryslot said: GFS MOS 8-4 That thing is nuts. VSF on VT/NH border is 2-8-4, lol. MOS gone wild. Even 2-4 up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: That thing is nuts. VSF on VT/NH border is 2-8-4, lol. MOS gone wild. Even 2-4 up this way. Days and Days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Looks like a sharp cutoff between the haves and have nots. I'm right on the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Looks like a sharp cutoff between the haves and have nots. I'm right on the border And it'll change, only 12 more model runs until it starts? The consensus and confidence levels seem like they should be pretty high, but we've already seen 2 systems in the past couple weeks do some pretty decent moves inside of 36 hours. I could see Dendrite looking like he's out of it and then gets 15" or the same with even the south coast if it tickles a little more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: And it'll change, only 12 more model runs until it starts? The consensus and confidence levels seem like they should be pretty high, but we've already seen 2 systems in the past couple weeks do some pretty decent moves inside of 36 hours. I could see Dendrite looking like he's out of it and then gets 15" or the same with even the south coast if it tickles a little more south. If you had to pick a spot right now that would see 8” from this....where would it be ? i would go Bout 15 miles N of hunter mountain at 2k , E slope Catskills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If you had to pick a spot right now that would see 8” from this....where would it be ? i would go Bout 15 miles N of hunter mountain at 2k , E slope Catskills See I like further east.... like the east slopes of the Berks into northern ORH hills, SVT and Monadnocks. Probably high terrain of RT 2 corridor right now is my gut feeling. These bowling ball set ups, the last few days of model runs, and a small dose of climo added in... that seems to be the zone where if you bowled 50 of these across the country, you'd end up seeing the most snowfall in that RT 2 zone, IMO. But it could also crush NYC or Pinkham Notch, some decent time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If you had to pick a spot right now that would see 8” from this....where would it be ? i would go Bout 15 miles N of hunter mountain at 2k , E slope Catskills How much for Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He’s comparing gfs and icon. That’s like putting the bengals against the dolphins to showcase what the NFL is all about. That’s hurtful for us Dolphins fans 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Yeah tracking ea run is the part I like learning as we go, Once the actual event is here, I start looking for the next one. Like the run up to Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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