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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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Took an early stab at a map for CT. Probably could have just did first call at work tomorrow but I'll be busy in the evening and most of Saturday (as usual). I am very intrigued by the WAA snow potential...some pretty solid lift and plenty of moisture. This only includes the WAA snow and not Monday's or phase two's output. Early thoughts are it's more rain or a mix here with major snows north

 1794555005_1stcallsnowmap.png.613bd2087b9f5fb7b446c24630653e90.png

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 Full on weenie mode. You know ...at times like these the multiple model runs and swings are almost as fun as the storm itself.

just keep me in the game another 36 hours . Don’t mind my spot in Nashua on this . Back up spot Bedford,Ma

I’ve always enjoyed the chase. So much so that the actual event sometimes ends up feeling ordinary. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve always enjoyed the chase. So much so that the actual event sometimes ends up feeling ordinary. 

The sadness when the snow starts ending is sad. U know the feeling lol. Hypothetically Especially if the future pattern doesn’t look so good. I call that post snowstorm depression. Model tracking is deff one of the funnest parts and also frustrating at the same time haha

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3 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

The sadness when the snow starts ending is sad. U know the feeling lol. Hypothetically Especially if the future pattern doesn’t look so good. I call that post snowstorm depression. Model tracking is deff one of the funnest parts and also frustrating at the same time haha

My wife has a picture of me right as the 4/1/97 storm was ending.   I looked like a guy that wasn’t gonna see snow for 7-8 months...

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Just now, weathafella said:

My wife has a picture of me right as the 4/1/97 storm was ending.   I looked like a guy that wasn’t gonna see snow for 7-8 months...

Haha you should deff share that one day. Of course if you want to. I could imagine. I’m 22 and people look at me like I’m crazy when I say I’m sad the snow is ending. Most people don’t like the snow. Oh well too bad

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45 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The Southeast convection is going to play a pretty large role in this, because the ridging ahead of the upper low factors into both the north/south and the east/west position of low pressure.

The higher heights ahead of the upper low would suggest a threat for a more west low track. 

Isn't that more pronounced with Miller a systems?

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Isn't that more pronounced with Miller a systems?

Certainly, but there is going to be convection with this one. It's rarely handled well by NWP, especially a couple days out. 

It's definitely not my specialty, but I would hazard a guess that's why we always seem to be seeing subtle (sometimes not so subtle) shifting run to run. These higher resolution NWP systems are very sensitive to convection. 

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11 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Looks like a sharp cutoff between the haves and have nots. I'm right on the border

And it'll change, only 12 more model runs until it starts?  The consensus and confidence levels seem like they should be pretty high, but we've already seen 2 systems in the past couple weeks do some pretty decent moves inside of 36 hours.  I could see Dendrite looking like he's out of it and then gets 15" or the same with even the south coast if it tickles a little more south.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

And it'll change, only 12 more model runs until it starts?  The consensus and confidence levels seem like they should be pretty high, but we've already seen 2 systems in the past couple weeks do some pretty decent moves inside of 36 hours.  I could see Dendrite looking like he's out of it and then gets 15" or the same with even the south coast if it tickles a little more south.

If you had to pick a spot right now that would see 8” from this....where would it be ?

i would go Bout 15 miles N of hunter mountain at 2k , E slope Catskills 

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If you had to pick a spot right now that would see 8” from this....where would it be ?

i would go Bout 15 miles N of hunter mountain at 2k , E slope Catskills 

See I like further east.... like the east slopes of the Berks into northern ORH hills,  SVT and Monadnocks.    Probably high terrain of RT 2 corridor right now is my gut feeling.

These bowling ball set ups, the last few days of model runs, and a small dose of climo added in... that seems to be the zone where if you bowled 50 of these across the country, you'd end up seeing the most snowfall in that RT 2 zone, IMO.   But it could also crush NYC or Pinkham Notch, some decent time left.

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