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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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12z model cycle is bringing stronger and increased confidence of a high impact, short duration snow event for the Cape and Islands.  Time window looks like between 6:00 am EST to 6:00 pm EST Tuesday, during this window, travel and visibilities could be lessened to 1/4 mile at times.  Blizzard conditions as winds increase and heavy snow band enters the region.  Snowfall rates over 1-2"/hour is possible.  This could lead to 12"+ widespread amounts from the Canal to Provincetown, MA

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I don't know who's said what or what was posted recently among too many pages ... but man, that 00z GFS surface evolution was a face smack for storm enthusiasts. 

How often does one see a 975 mb low stall collocated on top of Nantucket Island for like 9 to 12 hours, and have almost nothing put down on Earth to show for it, NW of the CC Canal ? 

Answer - it's like impossible.  Yet, the GFS has no compunctions in attempting to sell that rarefied and particularly special kind of butt banging - 

But, in more rational terms ... I wonder if this first wave escaping seaward is taking too much moisture/baroclinic parameters with it relative to the GFS evolution.  Seems a viable reason.  In that paradigm, this thing is dynamically challenged do to our greed on the first wave - haha.   So not so rational but that's funny...  

There is a reason we typically don't get "two" snow storms inside of 30 hours.  I've seen it happen ... 1996 did that in December - or darn close.  But this is no analog even remotely to that circumstance back whence, and what we do have is middling mid/U/A vestigial vortex moving along a favorable climate track ... with seemingly less left over from last night's 'wringing out' to work with... Such that QPF is challenged ?  I almost wonder if there is a deformation band or two around that NW arc, possibly as far NW as mid western NH, but it's like transparent CB's in the summer.  ...I mean, in deference to the GFS model run.  Haven't seen any other guidance.  The NAM is is a teaser - 

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