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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With a fairly wintry next 14 days. And one or two more threats next 10 days.. will be a nice holiday vibe after countless awful December’s 

I'm confused, it looks fairly torchy in the LR after this week. I hope it is wrong, but that big AO spike does match with the timing. Let's hope it gets muted as my nephew would love to ice skate again on a pond at Christmas time when he comes up from the south. 

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Actually...now the northern edge just 20 miles south of me seems to be eroding.  Oy...

Measured 1.5" in like 5 spots at 8:30 fyi

Yeah, models were forecasting that WAA punch to really slow down as the mid level lows start developing and the SW flow shuts off.

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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

That is reassuring for many given that the NAM has a reputation for being pretty good in these kind of scenarios in the short term yes?  And it has more recent data than the last EC.

I never trust the NAM until I see the white's of its eyes lol.

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Just now, wxsniss said:

0z NAM maybe a slight tick east vs. 18z but still a good hit for eSNE, really nails outer Cape... and so close to a much bigger hit

24+ hours away... no further clarity or definite trend re: round 2 at this point

Ya its better in CT and SE mass and actually a bit worse in my area over to say Ray but we are splitting hairs

Bottom line is we want that MSLP Just east of CHH at 12z and not 150 miles east of Cape ann

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like its slipping away.

Yes it does look that way. But i'm not done with it.

The solutions that truly rock and that would lead to the higher end of your forecast had the LOW parked a hair east of CHH at 12z to 18z .  We need at least a compromise between the relative garbage showing now (yes it still hits SE areas and PSM to downeast maine but its a scraper) and what we saw at 12z ... to do  warning snows midnite Monday to noon tuesday

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya its better in CT and SE mass and actually a bit worse in my area over to say Ray but we are splitting hairs

Bottom line is we want that MSLP Just east of CHH at 12z and not 150 miles east of Cape ann

I knew I should have waited for 18z suite to do final call...can't trust a 36 hr forecast from guidance.

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Yes it does look that way. But i'm not done with it.

The solutions that truly rock and that would lead to the higher end of your forecast had the LOW parked a hair east of CHH at 12z to 18z .  We need at least a compromise between the relative garbage showing now (yes it still hits SE areas and PSM to downeast maine but its a scraper) and what we saw at 12z ... to do  warning snows midnite Monday to noon tuesday

Eh....10" over 3 days blows.

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yup.  Fun to watch and look at but toss em

I mean everyone likes posting them but they seldom verify with so may run to run changes or at all, Everyone sees those big totals and just goes all weenie over them, Folks need to step back, This is the first event of the season for many, And many years this date has produced nothing, Take what you get and deal with it.

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I mean everyone likes posting them but they seldom verify with so may run to run changes or at all, Everyone sees those big totals and just goes all weenie over them, Folks need to step back, This is the first event of the season for many, And many years this date has produced nothing, Take what you get and deal with it.

Agree, its only Dec 1st and I have 7+ inches, if there's no part two or its less I consider this a good start to winter.

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