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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How did EPS turn out regionally?

This was the storm total on 18z run... but since it started at 1pm it likely included most of the front end precip too. 

These maps are way too coarse though for this close in.  EPS at this time frame seems to lose a bit of its luster when trying to find specific details.

9C1B8B8D-6869-4934-863B-25E662B587B4.thumb.png.9d9d443aad17afce4c722c247fcdda6d.png

D056939B-8D57-467E-B2BB-26CF3AC8B626.png

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

This was the storm total on 18z run... but since it started at 1pm it likely included most of the front end precip too. 

These maps are way too coarse though for this close in.  EPS at this time frame seems to lose a bit of its luster when trying to find specific details.

9C1B8B8D-6869-4934-863B-25E662B587B4.thumb.png.9d9d443aad17afce4c722c247fcdda6d.png

Thanks. That map looks totally reasonable overall . Give or take an inch . I bet that includes a few inches of sleet in places 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s funny.. and it makes sense.. but most of the posts are generalized to the posters area that they live . So when Runaway says it looks good. We know EMA probably isn’t and vice versa. 

I mean that’s how the forum works though.... I wouldn’t expect Runaway to say “It looks great” and assume he’s talking about Stowe, VT.  Likewise if Jerry is getting stoked it’s probably not because a run blitzed Albany.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This was the storm total on 18z run... but since it started at 1pm it likely included most of the front end precip too. 

These maps are way too coarse though for this close in.  EPS at this time frame seems to lose a bit of its luster when trying to find specific details.

9C1B8B8D-6869-4934-863B-25E662B587B4.thumb.png.9d9d443aad17afce4c722c247fcdda6d.png

D056939B-8D57-467E-B2BB-26CF3AC8B626.png

nice haircut on qpf for NE MASS /S NH

Either way im putting on the snow pants and winter gear and going for a walk in Nashua when that heavy blob moves over head in about 90 min or so

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Thanks. That map looks totally reasonable overall . Give or take an inch . I bet that includes a few inches of sleet in places 

So that’s one thing I was thinking.... those snow maps don’t include sleet in their totals, only precip coded as snow.  

You could add 2-3” of sleet to the snow totals the models show.  Like if that 3KM NAM has 2-3” of snow, that might be 4-6” of overall accumulation on like 1” water....it won’t add those inches of sleet in.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

So that’s one thing I was thinking.... those snow maps don’t include sleet in their totals, only precip coded as snow.  

You could add 2-3” of sleet to the snow totals the models show.  Like if that 3KM NAM has 2-3” of snow, that might be 4-6” of overall accumulation on like 1” water....it won’t add those inches of sleet in.

We will easily have 1-3” of sleet in N CT. Already like an inch of it on top of the snow 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We will easily have 1-3” of sleet in N CT. Already like an inch of it on top of the snow 

Yup that's what I was thinking.  Even with some small snow grains mixed in and stuff, probably could put 2-3" of very dense white material down.

This time of year, just get the QPF frozen and on the ground.  Makes for a great base and very torch resistant.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Yup that's what I was thinking.  Even with some small snow grains mixed in and stuff, probably could put 2-3" of very dense white material down.

This time of year, just get the QPF frozen and on the ground.  Makes for a great base and very torch resistant.

With a fairly wintry next 14 days. And one or two more threats next 10 days.. will be a nice holiday vibe after countless awful December’s 

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