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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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Just now, powderfreak said:

The Herpes Canadian version of the 3km NAM has an awesome firehose mid-level band aimed at you.  

84A61FAC-EF96-46DD-8590-842EE005D7D7.thumb.png.e5da8b6886f40edda5bb9ee4c11f837d.png

Will mentioned that idea earlier today where there’s never much lull tomorrow after flip back to all snow and hills kind of keep accumulating with Easterly inflow. Any thoughts on amounts ? About  3” now . I always value your input 

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11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I’ll take that 18z EURO hiccup. 
 

Round 1 laid an egg. Hoping for a few from round 2. 

Yeah that was still a very nice look for E MA despite the shift east. Esp right on the coast. Midlevel features look sweet. 

It'll be interesting to watch this unfold tomorrow. I still have no idea what might fall. Bust potential all over the place. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Any thoughts on amounts ? About  3” now . I always value your input 

I honestly haven’t a f*cking clue.  Literally you could find model guidance that would support any outcome at this point.  

I think it’ll be a little hit or miss but banding is going to set up somewhere.  I do think those global model snow maps of huge areas of big totals will be more localized but I think everyone just has to wait and see where mid-level banding sets up.  You could be ripping for 6+ hours straight while a county to the east or west is just seeing -SN.   

I certainly think a huge CCB will never be off the table.  Even if models are east, I feel like we often see all of Eastern New England covered in this huge snow shield just when we finally accept it won’t happen.

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Less consolidation with the first pulse/cyclone developing after a couple runs trying to move toward more...  It appears it's reverted back to this one now eventually stripping away the baroclinic instability seaward and starving the mid and upper level mechanics once they arrive.  May not be real - wonder if the 18z gets the full compliment of grid input, too. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Part 1 so far working out ok for Logan, although was hoping for 2-4 here. No idea about part too given how complicated it is.  Hopefully a few inches.

I’m not sure how the hell they are 9 miles and light rain.  The Ptype aside those DBZs should at least be producing 4-5 miles light rain  

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Well, as we get closer in time the shifts should become less evident I would think. This was pretty big.  Any snow is good snow 

Yeah, this is a pretty solid WAA thump underway.  SN+ here and the echos moving in from the SW look insane!  I could get nothing tomorrow and it would still be an awesome early Dec event.

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47 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

But I'm one of them and that's what really matters. ;)

in so many ways...

round 1 seems pretty good though.  i think I'm near 2 inches, can't see the grass, and unless I'm weenieing out too much, I think the radar looks quite good with a decent shield of some steady moderate snow creeping north and just about to cross 89 and head towards CON and then me.  Also a lot of redevelopment of echoes in ny and pa which I would image would move over this way whether or not we get a big coastal tomorrow night.  I figure I'll get at least 6 out of this, and probably more, and that's a good start on the season on Dec 1.  :hurrbear:

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1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

in so many ways...

round 1 seems pretty good though.  i think I'm near 2 inches, can't see the grass, and unless I'm weenieing out too much, I think the radar looks quite good with a decent shield of some steady moderate snow creeping north and just about to cross 89 and head towards CON and then me.  Also a lot of redevelopment of echoes in ny and pa which I would image would move over this way whether or not we get a big coastal tomorrow night.  I figure I'll get at least 6 out of this, and probably more, and that's a good start on the season on Dec 1.  :hurrbear:

The real thump is with that stuff moving in now. I do have some questions as to how far north it makes it, but our warning area looks pretty solid.

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