JC-CT Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I love herpes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: @CT Rain here’s your herpes run Yes, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: I think there's a general questioning of how far that push actually is--and thoughts that it isn't as far as earlier modeled. It’s usually pushes further north than modeled so I’m buying that. But I’m favoring a more robust ccb...which since last night has been trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: All models are showing a warming inland after the WCB pushes through and we lose the dynamics. I doubt ORH warms out of the 20s despite what all models show. Models always underestimate the wedge inland. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: RI is a great state I would be happy to be annexed away from CT. Lol Lets do this!! Not sure if this was what was meant but I lived in SE CT for years and the general flavor of that area is quite distinct from the rest of CT and shares a lot more similarities (and accent) with Rhode Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s usually pushes further north than modeled so I’m buying that. But I’m favoring a more robust ccb...which since last night has been trending that way. All models are showing this CCB developing. This could be a pretty hellacious 6-12hr blitz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: I doubt ORH warms out of the 20s despite what all models show. Models always underestimate the wedge inland. Scooters been saying for days anywhere NW of PVD never sniffs 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Sticking with 8-14'' here. Tonight should perform but I'm not convinced about tomorrow into Tuesday adding all that much more on. Going to be lots of subsidence areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: All models are showing this CCB developing. This could be a pretty hellacious 6-12hr blitz The revised disco coming out of Philly was alarming, they said there could be "large changes" to their forecast for Monday, because of the growing threat of a narrow band of 1-2" per hour rates there for several hours for a total of 4-6+ inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Well I had a little false start here. Dropped a coating on everything. Now quit. 19 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 42 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: There was that time that CT and Block threatened an annexation 40 years or so ago. Hollow as it was. New York once traded Greenwich to CT in exchange for Fishers Island. Oops. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: New York once traded Greenwich to CT in exchange for Fishers Island. Oops. There are 236 proud NY residents there, ok? Lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Scooters been saying for days anywhere NW of PVD never sniffs 32 I’m not sure. Deep interior no, but it’s possible you get bear or a tick above 32 briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Radar for this first thump heading NE is not impressive at all..shredded look. If this is round 1....it’s going to disappoint. Unless the precip fills in as it heads in? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Happy Birthday Jerry! A real pain forecast, less because of rain-snow issues and more because of complex evolution. Great disco everyone. Some thoughts: Likely oversimplified, but the way I view this entire system of "round 1", "round 2", and in between, is a stretched out and messy secondary coastal transfer. What we're calling "round 1" is still part of WAA associated with the primary low over the Lakes. Yes, 2ndary surface reflections start to pop up by 0z Mon (when the round 1 thump is well underway in SNE and mixing already nearing BOS), but 850 winds are still from the south going all the way back to ~ Michigan. For eastern SNE, IMO the bigger potential snow will be impacts of an eventually dominant 2ndary coastal Monday night - Tues. Powderkeg potential that is not spoiled by round 1. How that develops has been a mess, with multiple pieces of vorticity circling around the ULL, hence multiple surface lows appearing to pop up and bobble back and forth over 24 hours between 0z Mon - 0z Tues. Whichever of these multiple lows dominates will determine how hard we (eastern SNE) get hit by its CCB after 0z Tues in "round 2". Remember this "round 2", even though we are considering it part of the same storm, is still over 24 hours out. I think the baroclinic zone remains closer to the coast and we see bigger impact solutions of a CCB lock in through today. As for a forecast? Easier to separate the different storm parts, and the bigger total numbers of all rounds put together could appear to disappoint if we have 12 hours of lighter rain in between. For the Boston metro area, I'm thinking: 3-6 in round 1, maybe 4-8 in far western burbs... then another 4-8 in round 2 (though I'm much less confident of this for reasons above and its > 24 hours away)... for an event total 7-14. Obviously biggest bust potential is in the CCB round 2 where this could even bust too low if one of the multiple surface lows dominates sooner and closer. Awesome start to met winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Speaking of Fairfield county. Per capita who cares 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: @CT Rain here’s your herpes run One of the worst infections I've ever seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: There are 236 proud NY residents there, ok? Lol Lol! @StormSurge among them! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Radar for this first thump heading NE is not impressive at all..shredded look. If this is round 1....it’s going to disappoint. Unless the precip fills in as it heads in? nothing but pellets here so far, need some stronger echoes before the warm air takes over or its nothing but sleet for us...on the bright side, air temps are really struggling at the moment 26.3°/17° atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Happy Birthday Jerry! A real pain forecast, less because of rain-snow issues and more because of complex evolution. Great disco everyone. Some thoughts: Likely oversimplified, but the way I view this entire system of "round 1", "round 2", and in between, is a stretched out and messy secondary coastal transfer. What we're calling "round 1" is still part of WAA associated with the primary low over the Lakes. Yes, 2ndary surface reflections start to pop up by 0z Mon (when the round 1 thump is well underway in SNE and mixing already nearing BOS), but 850 winds are still from the south going all the way back to ~ Michigan. For eastern SNE, IMO the bigger potential snow will be impacts of an eventually dominant 2ndary coastal Monday night - Tues. Powderkeg potential that is not spoiled by round 1. How that develops has been a mess, with multiple pieces of vorticity circling around the ULL, hence multiple surface lows appearing to pop up and bobble back and forth over 24 hours between 0z Mon - 0z Tues. Whichever of these multiple lows dominates will determine how hard we (eastern SNE) get hit by its CCB after 0z Tues in "round 2". Remember this "round 2", even though we are considering it part of the same storm, is still over 24 hours out. I think the baroclinic zone remains closer to the coast and we see bigger impacts of a CCB lock in through today. As for a forecast? Easier to separate the different storm parts, and the bigger total numbers of all rounds put together could appear to disappoint if we have 12 hours of lighter rain in between. For the Boston metro area, I'm thinking: 3-6 in round 1, maybe 4-8 in far western burbs... then another 4-8 in round 2 (though I'm much less confident of this for reasons above and its > 24 hours away)... for an event total 7-14. Obviously biggest bust potential is in the CCB round 2 where this could even bust too low if one of the multiple surface lows dominates sooner and closer. Awesome start to met winter! Great disco and thank you! I have to get back to the old hood for a memory lane snow walk with you as we did the night we left in heavy snow and returned in heavy rain (which changed back to snow to save the night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, Logan11 said: Well I had a little false start here. Dropped a coating on everything. Now quit. 19 degrees. The real deal underway now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: nothing but pellets here so far, need some stronger echoes before the warm air takes over or its nothing but sleet for us...on the bright side, air temps are really struggling at the moment 26.3°/17° atm Still feeling freezing rain could be an issue in the valley later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: nothing but pellets here so far, need some stronger echoes before the warm air takes over or its nothing but sleet for us...on the bright side, air temps are really struggling at the moment 26.3°/17° atm Ya, the first surprise is that everyone, in the interior at least, was supposed to start as snow. That isn’t the case at all; so that’s surprise number 1, from round 1 lol. More surprises to come I think....but yes, it’s cold out there for sure-colder than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: Still feeling freezing rain could be an issue in the valley later. Agree. I like the under on snowfall for rd1 but over on ice potential in the usual spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Euro gone wild for round 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro gone wild for round 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Pretty good thump in CT for round 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro gone wild for round 1 The look in real time is Not impressive at the moment... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Pounded . Poundings,, Pounder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I think round two will be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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