OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: What does this graphic mean? It's the 90th percentile of all analog matches. So 90% of all analogs had this much snow or less. It's kind of a measure of the upper limit of the system according to analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: CIPS analog going full KU 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What does this graphic mean? It took me a few minutes to figure it out. do you have a 10% and 50% probability as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It's the 90th percentile of all analog matches. So 90% of all analogs had this much snow or less. It's kind of a measure of the upper limit of the system according to analogs. So this system is progged to overperform relative to analog composite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So this system is progged to overperform relative to analog composite? It’s good news. This is going to be a huge storm and on top of that 30-40 hours of precip. Remember we were talking about this a couple of weeks ago with you guys I wanted a 36 inch storm that lasted 36 hours. I’m tired of those 8 hour blizzards! I’m hyped!!!! what is crash predicting lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Last really long duration winter storm I can recall was in early Feb '15. Got about 2 feet over something like two or three days in Cambridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So this system is progged to overperform relative to analog composite? Mostly it shows you the "potential" of a certain upper air pattern. It's not like this system has potential only up to advisory snowfall, it has the potential to really turn into something meaty. Of course the 10th percentile (think of it as "at least this much snow") is 0, so there are wide goalposts. Median is respectable for early Dec though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So this system is progged to overperform relative to analog composite? Start high and go to 99 as needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Ray mini melts from 12z euro and now the north trend will commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: Mostly it shows you the "potential" of a certain upper air pattern. It's not like this system has potential only up to advisory snowfall, it has the potential to really turn into something meaty. Of course the 10th percentile (think of it as "at least this much snow") is 0, so there are wide goalposts. Median is respectable for early Dec though: This is much easier to understand. Makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Been ripping them back today Just added another lolSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Start high and go to 99 as needed. Its a GFS analog though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ray mini melts from 12z euro and now the north trend will commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Its a GFS analog though.... FV3? It's really just analogs based on the upper air pattern of the GFS at that forecast hour, so in general much better than an MSLP or QPF prog from the GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Its a GFS analog though.... Right. It's based on the latest GFS update, which most don't trust, so take it with a grain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 hours ago, moneypitmike said: On the bright side. It’s trending so the city can pick up my leaves. You and I are on the same wavelength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ray mini melts from 12z euro and now the north trend will commence. We’ll be saying congrats PF in 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: FV3? It's really just analogs based on the upper air pattern of the GFS at that forecast hour, so in general much better than an MSLP or QPF prog from the GFS. Upper air analog to 12 07 03 and 01 04 03 gave me wood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Upper air analog to 12 07 03 and 01 04 03 gave me wood. Was in college then in VT. Deets on those systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 This should be a major snow event somewhere...just a matter of where. Potent 500mb energy like that and pretty favorable for cycolgenesis south of LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 12/03 is on of my favs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Was in college then in VT. Deets on those systems? 12/7/03 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Upper air analog to 12 07 03 and 01 04 03 gave me wood. 12/6/03 was a full blown blizzard but what the hell was 1-4-03? I looked it up on rays winter storm archive, its like a total dud, nothing. Also, 12/6/03 was a cut off bowling ball similar to this so i get the analog there but 1/4/03 was an open wave, so im not sure how that was an analog at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 12/03 is on of my favs. That was one of my worst bone jobs. I'd be more than happy to give it another whirl, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 12/03 is on of my favs. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1/4/03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Was in college then in VT. Deets on those systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: 12/6/03 was a full blown blizzard but what the hell was 1-4-03? I looked it up on rays winter storm archive, its like a total dud, nothing. Also, 12/6/03 was a cut off bowling ball similar to this so i get the analog there but 1/4/03 was an open wave, so im not sure how that was an analog at H5 1-4-03 I vaguely remember as being a small event that had a mega gradient. NYC was all rain and 33 yet places like BDR/HPN/HVN snowed all day and had like 4-6 inches I think. It was somewhat like a 12/9/95 or 12/9/05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: 12/6/03 was a full blown blizzard but what the hell was 1-4-03? I looked it up on rays winter storm archive, its like a total dud, nothing. Also, 12/6/03 was a cut off bowling ball similar to this so i get the analog there but 1/4/03 was an open wave, so im not sure how that was an analog at H5 Definitely progged to be more robust at 500/300 Sunday than 1/4/03 was, but the mid levels back in 2003 were a fair analog match for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: 12/7/03 This is the 12/5-6/03 blizzard, so what is that? There were two back to back major nor'easters 1 day apart in Dec 03? I don't remember that, something isn't adding up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: 12/7/03 That Map is grossly inaccurate. NYC got 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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