STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: NAM is late with ULL capture so CCB develops further East. Gets eastern areas pretty good Looking at Tues 6z to 18z the 12z nam is Better and significantly deeper with mid levels than 6z . Close to an absolute mauling Cape Ann to PSM to Portland Maine looks like best shot of Being crushed Tuesday am but it ain’t written in Stone . That was very close to a burial for all areas E of ORH on round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I'm putting my eggs in the round 1 basket. I don't really trust the coastal potential back here with any great confidence. Let's see how models handle it today. Gut call right now is 8-12" here from both acts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, correnjim1 said: True unfortunately I'm confident I'll get there...there is still some time lol How far do you live from Logan? If we get a decent round 2 you may be in a very good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 33 minutes ago, dendrite said: We’ll get some snow...probably just not blockbuster unless we get a little bust in our favor. You’ll do better down there. edit...I keep forgetting you’re in Boscawen now too. I’m probably 7 or 8 miles ssw of you. 6-10 seems like a reasonable goal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looking at Tues 6z to 18z the 12z nam is Better and significantly deeper with mid levels than 6z . Close to an absolute mauling Agreed. Just a 6hr difference in that ULL capture will make a world of difference over eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I'm in East Boston....i can see Logan from my window lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, correnjim1 said: I'm in East Boston....i can see Logan from my window lol You should be the snow measuring guy! Also keep the temperature records.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, mostman said: Ugly for me and many. 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm putting my eggs in the round 1 basket. I don't really trust the coastal potential back here with any great confidence. Let's see how models handle it today. Gut call right now is 8-12" here from both acts. I’m focused on round 1 here. Maybe it’s from old habits from when I was in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm putting my eggs in the round 1 basket. I don't really trust the coastal potential back here with any great confidence. Let's see how models handle it today. Gut call right now is 8-12" here from both acts. I don’t know your topography but I’ll be shocked if you come under a foot. Thinking 12-18 there with room for more if things breaks right. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: True unfortunately I'm confident I'll get there...there is still some time lol I think your going to end up in a WSW relatively soon based on trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 No idea what to expect here.. These are the worst kind of storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: You should be the snow measuring guy! Also keep the temperature records.....lol. Well wouldn't need more then a grammar school kids ruler for this one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, Greg said: I think your going to end up in a WSW relatively soon based on trends. That would be great....i would love my call to be a huge bust lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanwxnh Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I’m probably 7 or 8 miles ssw of you. 6-10 seems like a reasonable goal From a few miles away from you, yes, I concur. I'm hoping we don't get that traditional morning weenie event so schools and businesses think it's done. Oh well, Winter is here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Radar currently looking unimpressive heading up from the southwest for round 1. Let’s see if it blossoms more in the next few hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t know your topography but I’ll be shocked if you come under a foot. Thinking 12-18 there with room for more if things breaks right. Enjoy. Elevated valley location with higher hills to my W and N. I'm around 350'. I often do much better than the S valley but I'm not convinced of the higher QPF totals with this complex of a set-up. I could see this area going 5-7" for round one and 3-5" for round two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Elevated valley location with higher hills to my W and N. I'm around 350'. I often do much better than the S valley but I'm not convinced of the higher QPF totals with this complex of a set-up. I could see this area going 5-7" for round one and 3-5" for round two. You’re the pivot point. Those crush. Something has to be completely off for this to bust up there. Not saying it’s a lock, nothing is, but it’s about as close you can lock a foot in as there is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You’re the pivot point. Those crush. Something has to be completely off for this to bust up there. Not saying it’s a lock, nothing is, but it’s about as close you can lock a foot in as there is Savoy is a lock . East Slope Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Savoy is a lock . East Slope Berks They also have elevation whch also helps add a few mesoscale inches for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 sitting at 24/8, gonna take a while to get saturated here, and the radar don't look too impressive SW of us...a bit shredded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Any coincidence that both Tip and Crankywx have been missing for 6 days each. Heh... I just returned late last evening. I think I made it pretty clear I was heading out of town for the holiday, and probably wouldn't be reachable ? At least I thought I did Anyway, interesting system here, but there are some distractions to consider. I'm not fully onboard after getting caught up with trends over the last three days that a double hit/impact scenario is a "definite" on the tote-board. It could be a passe characterization deal, annoyingly subjective that starts fights in reanalysis and imby opinion making. Tongue in cheek there... but, there are scientifically appropriate limitations for the double-whammy idea. Namely ( one ) despite the "cut-off" structure of this, the progressivity of the flow is still there. I've read back a few pages; there's some tendency to conflate that appearance of this vortex with cut(ing) off. That's not reeeally what's happening here in terms of what it typically means to cut-off a mid level vortex due to total wave space/cyclogenetic feed-backs from UVM/thermodynamic processing ( deepening the core to the point that internal heights fall beneath the trough's ambience) a time span amid the coastal low model in which they tend to do their most damage. That's hint number one that in general...this could behave oddly; hence a bit distracting. This is already closed off, progressively rollin' along, and therefore toting along already occluded structures with it. That said, yes ... it's still getting some kick-backs from cyclogenesis/processing ( particularly exemplified in the 06z's "however" quite bizarre total behavior surface and/to aloft). The 500mb surface plumbs to 528 or a touch beneath, and moves from S of ISP to east of PWM out there between 36 and 48 hours, ... a rather ideal climate track actually for Worcester up to SE NH; even if the deepening is modest from around 534 that is true. Climate alone on the mid level "magic" egh... little dicey here. Kind of off-setting flavors. The next distraction: Both the speed of the flow surrounding the trough, combined with the fact that the trough is so anomalously large, are imposing an interesting(anomalous) surface evolution tendency along and off the Mid Atlantic to east of Cape Code. Those two factors working together arrange for cyclogenesis parameterization to excite a "premature" low along the Delaware/NJ lat/lons, which reading back several pages folks are referring to event #1? That spin-up is a wave along a quasi warm front ..fine, typical detonation point for 2ndary and so forth anyway, if not along a triple point, that's understandable. However, this is happening way out ahead of our deeper later/better mechanical forcing associated with the vortex. I guess a simple way to say, the 2ndary Miller B model is being unusually stretched (circumstantially) here. The mid level velocities way out ahead of that better forcing are high, and this increasing in time is acting like a diffluence ...floating a match over gas fumes, igniting a surface low that then becomes problematic: It is sufficiently capturing the baroclinic field and strips a good bit of it away seaward in the extended rich velocity field. Then of course the more important Q-G forcing associated with the closed vestigial trough/vortex approaches that same area, but ends up initially challenged to detonate a new/'real' supportive low. That's why we are seeing this tendency in the GFS and NAM to belay the new, I guess we'd have to call it "tertiary cyclogenesis" in this case. Fascinating how the 06z GFS tries to atone by capturing and foisting a long seaward exposed low way back NW toward the Maine coast Tuesday morning. Man, talk about a model suffering a migraine! Thing is ... these models don't really depict scenarios that are 'physically impossible' ? No ... they are still governed by the principles of geophysics in their make-up... We can only deduce which outcome is more or less possible based upon experience, climate/empirical past, local time-scale trends/seasonal tendencies, education, and yes ... a bit of art ( ha, sometimes the latter happens too liberally in the weather -related social media, too, but that's another story...). We've seen premature ejaculations many times in the models along the M/A spanning yesteryears in the modeling behavior. Troughs encroach hyper volatility scenarios/set-ups and we've watched successive model runs correct toward a more cohesive western low as the near term came into focus. I don't know about that, this time, however. The hotness of this prom date is there but ...this trough migration and quasi-closed vortex (again) being so anomalously large, along with unusually high mid and upper level wind speeds surrounding its rampart approaching a sexy deep layer baroclinic field presently situated(ing) along and off the M/A is certainly a viability for early ... ah, fun. Heh..so I'm not readily sure the typical westerly correction vector applies because of this total scenario's uniqueness. But if the first low does develop earnestly ... I wouldn't be shocked if the 2nd system ends up E. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Yup, Tips back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Welcome back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Reggie with the CT hole for 2 runs in a row now....it thinks we "roast" while NJ gets buried, it also thinks that low stalls on the Jersey shore, not sure it actually does that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Looked like a pelt fest on the reggie for most of CT even just over the border into MA if that is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Reggie with the CT hole for 2 runs in a row now....it thinks we "roast" while NJ gets buried, it also thinks that low stalls on the Jersey shore, not sure it actually does that I think CT is screwed. NYC Boston jack. Stalls too far west then jumps east. RGEM pounds NJ and Easter mass. Philly gets 6 on this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Amazing and Eastern mass getting hammered at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I think CT is screwed. NYC Boston jack. Stalls too far west then jumps east. RGEM pounds NJ and Easter mass. Philly gets 6 on this run! Lol, Boston, NYC, Philly, and eventually Baltimore will get more than we do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, Spanks45 said: Lol, Boston, NYC, Philly, and eventually Baltimore will get more than we do Amazing. Not even gonna get the snow thrower ready. Payback for 2013 and 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yup, Tips back. Yup! Now just waiting for Pope to chime in and drop the other shoe on how this can underperform weenie expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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