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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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Euro looked great.

Here is my blogpost.

 

This evening's heavy rainfall should be a distant memory by the time we sit down with our loved ones to indulge in a Thanksgiving day feast later today. Fair weather should prevail for Black Friday  and through the weekend, affording many of us an opportunity to partake in that exercise in procrastination that is Christmas shopping. And as fate would have it, mother nature may just decide to make it a bit more festive as the calendar flips to December.

Perhaps a snow shovel may be a suitable gift for some of us.

 Last Sunday, Eastern Mass Weather utilized teleconnector convergence to flag Monday December 2 as the first potential winter storm of the season.

Moduality.png

 

However a retreating ridge node in the vicinity of Greenland was cited as the reason why heavy amounts of snowfall may be reserved for areas of central and northern New England.

 

Storm.png

 

 

 

While that ridging still does appear as though it will cede ground, other subtle changes over southeast Canada may act to supply just enough cold air to the regions to begin to make it look much more like Christmas.

 

New%2BStorm.png

 

 

Note that the large low pressure area just to the north of New Foundland is slightly stonger in the latest guidance, which acts to hold more of the cold high pressure in place to the north of us over Quebec. This could potentially have important implications since a potent 500mb low is currently projected to traverse beneath the latitude of southern New England on Monday morning, which is a very ominous sign in terms of snowfall potential.

H5.png

 

 

There remains a significant chance that this system could track slightly further to the north, and the high pressure may retreat little faster, which would mean very little in the way of snow across the majority of southern New England. However current trends favor an abrupt beginning to winter this Monday, and commuters should remain mindful of the fact that boreal winter will be upon us this Sunday.

First Call will be issued on Friday night.

Here is the initial Snowfall Threat Assessment.

Monday%2BThreat%2BAssessment.png

 

 

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

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25 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:


I'm guessing the only place worse than New London/GON for snow is Fisher's Island.  At least you have the excuse that you're in NY.

 

I'm actually only a summer resident of FI, not that that invalidates your statement lol. I'm sure Stormsurge has woven a tapestry of obscenity with respect to winter rains which, as far as we know, is still floating in space over Fishers Island Sound. That said, being five miles from the water in KHVN isn't ideal either. We must often live vicariously through you countryfolk. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So basically it starts snowing Sunday morning and stops sometime Tuesday?

The start looks pretty straightforward (I woudn't expect anything in the morning, more likely noon or shortly after as it stands now).  It will be really interesting to see how this evolves with respect to the end-time.  Seems to be a lack of clarity on that at this juncture. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z EPS is getting on the weenie side now. That’s awfully close to nailing  Boston. 

The 6z control is....out of control as well as the snowfall mean, nice to see it continue to look better at this point and hopefully not start reverse course. It is nice to have this be the EURO and not the GFS

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I'm actually only a summer resident of FI, not that that invalidates your statement lol. I'm sure Stormsurge has woven a tapestry of obscenity with respect to winter rains which, as far as we know, is still floating in space over Fishers Island Sound. That said, being five miles from the water in KHVN isn't ideal either. We must often live vicariously through you countryfolk. 

I didn't realize you were a summer resident.  My brother and I used to take care of some guy's summer place (landscape) back when I was in high school or college.  Taking that first ferry from New London every morning really sucked for kids who really wanted to sleep.  On the plus side, the nanny who's job it seemed consisted of dropping the kids off at tennis camp was really hot, and she'd spend the time lounging at the pool in a really skimpy bathing suit.  Sounds like it a scene from a movie......

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