Monday 12/2 Threat Disco

[Ginx snewx]

Not feeling it. Great call Ryan. Has the feel of  basically non accumulating big flakes with an inch at most here.  Hope I am wrong.  We did flash freeze so its a skating rink 

[DFRI]

22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Lol at Boston schools already closing tomorrow. 
 

why don’t you actually see some accumulating snow first before calling it 

Providence did too.  Bunch of idiots.

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I knew from the very start the general public would be carrying pitchforks on this one because of the numbers on the map dont represent snow depth at the end. There are two parts and a lot will melt in between around the state. 

What was surprising here..nothing melted.  The Snow cover is intact.  Temp never went above freezing here.  I thought it would have gone up to 36-37 for sure. But it stayed cold all night and all day. 

[JustinRP37]

This one was a hard storm to get right, but yeah anytime you have a two part system and melting in-between people will get the pitchforks ready when the pretty colors do not line up to what is actually on the ground in-between. But it was definitely interesting to see how people down here in the NYC area expected something major when that really was never in the cards.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, DotRat_Wx said:

So are you out on this being eventful for the East? 

No ... not necessarily... Just that it's within the realm of possibilities so folks should be aware that if this pivots a tick more and spares everyone the ignominy of a good time, don't be shocked or emotive.

Tall order from this crew but -

It's entirely possible that both those models are just responding to convective sequencing/feedback, and since this situation is sort of got no room to f around with it's not helping confidence either way.  Euro's actually pretty good as an arbiter in this sort of situ - probably just go with that models and let the chips fall as they may at this point.  Or, nowcast too

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Winter Weather Advisory issued for Barnstable County.  Up to 5" of snow expected.  GFS is almost a foot of snow for Chatham.

There is a 50% It will pull the rug out from you at 0z or 6z lol enjoy the blue balls next 6-12 hours 

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Wx weenie kid just called me.  I told him it’s either minimal or big time.  No in between and  leaning minimal 

Told my friend working in the school dept. in Peabody the same thing, should probably be a 5am decision. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

18z RGEM is pretty consistent with a good event for Cape Cod, 6-8"

[WinterWolf]

Great discussion just now Ryan on the news. Well explained and comprehensive/understandable for the general public.  

I’d love to pick up a couple inches...so Hope it fills in.  Nice job as usual. 

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

18z RGEM is pretty consistent with a good event for Cape Cod, 6-8"

God, I wish I cared about Cape Cod

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

18z RGEM is pretty consistent with a good event for Cape Cod, 6-8"

You realize 18z shifted east right and moved that 6-8 from that the 12z has falling at the bridge and the 18z moved that east  close to the elbow ...

and where will it move it at 0z (out to sea )

[Thunderblizzard]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What was surprising here..nothing melted.  The Snow cover is intact.  Temp never went above freezing here.  I thought it would have gone up to 36-37 for sure. But it stayed cold all night and all day. 

I actually thought it would go up for a little while when it was rising a bit earlier... got to 32.8 and went back down.

[Hoth]

17 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The people skewering us saying the storm was a bust even though they got 2" of snow and going to get some more tonight is hilarious. 

We also had a 5"-10" band within 5 miles of the Mass border in N CT that worked out well and a 10"+ in far northern Litchfield Co. Overall... from timing to amounts it worked out fine. People are just nasty and miserable. 

I was more pissed that you said my snow was going to wash away, but as usual the forecast was spot on. Nice job handling this. Not a lay up.  

[BombsAway1288]

31 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Lol at Boston schools already closing tomorrow. 
 

why don’t you actually see some accumulating snow first before calling it 

Didn't they learn from what happened last year? Can't remember when but they closed Boston schools like a whole day ahead and just like clockwork the city got nothing but rain lol

[The 4 Seasons]

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I considered whether to do maps for Part I and Part II, but that probably would have clouded messaging even more.

i considered the same actually.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

24 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The people skewering us saying the storm was a bust even though they got 2" of snow and going to get some more tonight is hilarious. 

We also had a 5"-10" band within 5 miles of the Mass border in N CT that worked out well and a 10"+ in far northern Litchfield Co. Overall... from timing to amounts it worked out fine. People are just nasty and miserable. 

It’s just bad Monday morning QB’ing by ignorant people. Toss them and their opinions.

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

God, I wish I cared about Cape Cod

Ha you guys are brutal and in like the same general area (eastern Mass along ocean)...can’t imagine how little you care about a far away place like Worecester County.

[BombsAway1288]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha you guys are brutal and in like the same general area (eastern Mass along ocean)...can’t imagine how little you care about a far away place like Worecester County.

I think it's because it's a place we (at least myself) don't plan on living in at any point in the future.

I do plan on getting away from the coastal plain at some point (Middlesex/Worcester counties) so I do really care about what is happening out there and not CC.

Good luck though down there James. I fully expect you to do better there than mainland coastal areas with the East trends lol

[Spanks45]

Finally some light to moderate snow out there, temperature down to 31.6°/29.3°....lets go 1-5 inches!!!

[bishbish777]

22Z HRRR vastly different than previous runs. Bombs out the low to <970mb and shifts everything east. 

Edit: 22Z RAP does the same. Round 2 looking weak/unlikely at this point.

[CT Rain]

30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Great discussion just now Ryan on the news. Well explained and comprehensive/understandable for the general public.  

I’d love to pick up a couple inches...so Hope it fills in.  Nice job as usual. 

Thanks

[mahk_webstah]

33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No ... not necessarily... Just that it's within the realm of possibilities so folks should be aware that if this pivots a tick more and spares everyone the ignominy of a good time, don't be shocked or emotive.

Tall order from this crew but -

It's entirely possible that both those models are just responding to convective sequencing/feedback, and since this situation is sort of got no room to f around with it's not helping confidence either way.  Euro's actually pretty good as an arbiter in this sort of situ - probably just go with that models and let the chips fall as they may at this point.  Or, nowcast too

Is it my imagination or has modeling been bad last couple of years when it comes to snowstorms?  Or maybe I’m just paying more attention than I used to

[wxeyeNH]

52 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Lol at Boston schools already closing tomorrow. 
 

why don’t you actually see some accumulating snow first before calling it 

They did that last night up here.  We were never in a WSW all the heaviest stuff was to fall further south.  Most of the day the models had us in the 3-7" range through our school district.  They cancelled school early last evening.  We had light snow till about midnight then flurries.  3" fluff dry total snow in area.  Roads were bare this morning with no snow falling all day and some sunny breaks but no school for 7 NH towns here just south of Plymouth NH.  So stupid.  At least wait till 5am like they use to.  I posted something about this on our local Newfound Lake facebook page and got blasted.  Comments like,  you never know about Mother Nature blah blah blah.

[FXWX]

48 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The people skewering us saying the storm was a bust even though they got 2" of snow and going to get some more tonight is hilarious. 

We also had a 5"-10" band within 5 miles of the Mass border in N CT that worked out well and a 10"+ in far northern Litchfield Co. Overall... from timing to amounts it worked out fine. People are just nasty and miserable. 

This "People are just nasty and miserable!"   Been my philosophy for years; lol

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

They did that last night up here.  We were never in a WSW all the heaviest stuff was to fall further south.  Most of the day the models had us in the 3-7" range through our school district.  They cancelled school early last evening.  We had light snow till about midnight then flurries.  3" fluff dry total snow in area.  Roads were bare this morning with no snow falling all day and some sunny breaks but no school for 7 NH towns here just south of Plymouth NH.  So stupid.  At least wait till 5am like they use to.  I posted something about this on our local Newfound Lake facebook page and got blasted.  Comments like,  you never know about Mother Nature blah blah blah.

I remember plenty of snow days growing up in the Albany suburbs but I never remember going to bed already knowing school has been canceled.  And I’m not old, only a little more than 15 years out of high school.  

It boggles my mind now how everything is cancelled so far in advance.  I remember we’d always start with a 2-hour delay, then go to closing.  No way in hell would you be lucky enough to know about it the night before, even if March 2001 was coming.

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I remember plenty of snow days growing up in the Albany suburbs but I never remember going to bed already knowing school has been canceled.  And I’m not old, only a little more than 15 years out of high school.  

It boggles my mind now how everything is cancelled so far in advance.  I remember we’d always start with a 2-hour delay, then go to closing.  No way in hell would you be lucky enough to know about it the night before, even if March 2001 was coming.

We used to get up at six and put the radio on praying to hear our school was cancelled. Never the night before.

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I remember plenty of snow days growing up in the Albany suburbs but I never remember going to bed already knowing school has been canceled.  And I’m not old, only a little more than 15 years out of high school.  

It boggles my mind now how everything is cancelled so far in advance.  I remember we’d always start with a 2-hour delay, then go to closing.  No way in hell would you be lucky enough to know about it the night before, even if March 2001 was coming.

It happened once for me and that was Jan 96. I remember waking up the next morning early and it was still a virga storm. It started snowing soon after and we got a quick 10" in the mid morning. Other than that, the joke was that if the headmaster could walk outside and not slip, school was on.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

We used to get up at six and put the radio on praying to hear our school was cancelled. Never the night before.

Yes sir...and am radio at that.  I still listen to the same am station to this day in the morning.  

[tavwtby]

and it begins... filled in nicely last hour or so, let's hope it's the real deal

[dendrite]

I'll add that there's a lot more involved in the decision making now. Schools want to take no chances with bus accidents. Also, so many families have both parents working now so arrangements sometimes have to be made in advance for their kids getting watched. With internet now, kids just have their blizzard bags or online hw assignments anyway. They probably get more work done on snow days at home now versus what we used to get done going into school.