Monday 12/2 Threat Disco

[HinghamBoss]

This entire evolution is fascinating.  I work on the Hingham/Rockland line and it is absolutely pouring.  Hard not to get excited about the potential of being in the thick of a 3-6 incher tomorrow tomorrow.  Not going to be the biggest storm, but beats a cold rain.  Especially when you consider it is 12/2-12/3.

[rimetree]

I liked that 12Z UK run...keeps snow in the air into tomorrow night.

[Damage In Tolland]

31 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This is for @weatherwiz  

 

Another 4-6”! 

[weatherwiz]

56 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its limited, But i can see H5

I like how I don't have to break my neck to see this!

31 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This is for @weatherwiz  

 

The torture 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I like how I don't have to break my neck to see this!

The torture 

Not as far to west a some of the other guidance has it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not as far to west a some of the other guidance has it.

Certainly better than last 3 runs

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I think one large factor we haven't taken into account is the potential intensifying evolution of the H5 low as it passes due east of ACK and CHH.  An intensifying 525dm upper level H5 low, and a surface low that is as low as 975mb could deliver a death band of epic proportions.  I think whoever is able to get inside this band, will see amounts off  the charts.

[Baroclinic Zone]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What a weenie run...but I'm skeptical as of now.

I'm skeptical off all modeling now.  But that was a  run

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Certainly better than last 3 runs

I'm liking the way the moisture is rotating into the coast off the Atlantic.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, dryslot said:

I'm liking the way the moisture is rotating into the coast off the Atlantic.

I am liking that some observations from Plymouth State Weather Center is showing the surface low much further southeast at around 987mb.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not as far to west a some of the other guidance has it.

At this point though we can probably put the models on the back burner and just focus on mesoanalysis. The models are hinting extremely well at what will transpire...just some differences into where those results are

You can see where the 850 fronto is beginning to develop and how this will probably orientate and eventually pivot:

 

 

Now 700 will probably start becoming further developed as the system strengthens but you can also start to see where this will be

 

There are some pretty dang steep mlvl lapse rates too with the H5 low and some pockets of instability so convective elements and convection should continue to fire off the coast...something that's also going to play a big roll. 

Also setting up some great sfc fronto. Once we have all this fronto aligned we'll see a sick band transpire

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

At this point though we can probably put the models on the back burner and just focus on mesoanalysis. The models are hinting extremely well at what will transpire...just some differences into where those results are

You can see where the 850 fronto is beginning to develop and how this will probably orientate and eventually pivot:

 

 

Now 700 will probably start becoming further developed as the system strengthens but you can also start to see where this will be

 

There are some pretty dang steep mlvl lapse rates too with the H5 low and some pockets of instability so convective elements and convection should continue to fire off the coast...something that's also going to play a big roll. 

Also setting up some great sfc fronto. Once we have all this fronto aligned we'll see a sick band transpire

Great analysis Wiz, what are you thinking for the Cape area?  I think the Outer Cape from HYA to Provincetown will likely see 4", but I am confident we could see up to 10" in spots, especially on the outer arm.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

At this point though we can probably put the models on the back burner and just focus on mesoanalysis. The models are hinting extremely well at what will transpire...just some differences into where those results are

You can see where the 850 fronto is beginning to develop and how this will probably orientate and eventually pivot:

 

 

Now 700 will probably start becoming further developed as the system strengthens but you can also start to see where this will be

 

There are some pretty dang steep mlvl lapse rates too with the H5 low and some pockets of instability so convective elements and convection should continue to fire off the coast...something that's also going to play a big roll. 

Also setting up some great sfc fronto. Once we have all this fronto aligned we'll see a sick band transpire

 

I have had the SPC site open all morning, I want to see where the H5 low tracks from there will have a good idea where H7 is going to be plus H85..............

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Great analysis Wiz. What are you thinking for Southbury CT USA?

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

At this point though we can probably put the models on the back burner and just focus on mesoanalysis. The models are hinting extremely well at what will transpire...just some differences into where those results are

You can see where the 850 fronto is beginning to develop and how this will probably orientate and eventually pivot:

 

...

Now 700 will probably start becoming further developed as the system strengthens but you can also start to see where this will be

 

...

There are some pretty dang steep mlvl lapse rates too with the H5 low and some pockets of instability so convective elements and convection should continue to fire off the coast...something that's also going to play a big roll. 

Also setting up some great sfc fronto. Once we have all this fronto aligned we'll see a sick band transpire

 

Nice effort but you'll get more replies and sense of it actually being read if you include the 'snowcane' drug ...  So like all that, then say ... " ....means x-y-z snow for a-b-c location" 

Suddenly your analysis is brilliant!

[dryslot]

Yeah, Fuk the analysis, Is it going to snow at 44.09/-70.16?  

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nice effort but you'll get more replies and sense of it actually being read if you include the 'snowcane' drug ...  So like all that, then say ... " ....means x-y-z snow for a-b-c location" 

Suddenly your analysis is brilliant!

.....more reads when its under 20 paragraphs, too..

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

.....more reads when its under 20 paragraphs, too..

I didn’t need the dictionary on my lap to read Wiz’s post either .

[Typhoon Tip]

Or intelligence to read anything else

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Great analysis Wiz, what are you thinking for the Cape area?  I think the Outer Cape from HYA to Provincetown will likely see 4", but I am confident we could see up to 10" in spots, especially on the outer arm.

I could certainly potential for 4-8'' on the Cape if this thing materializes. Should it materialize there is going to be some serious lift to work with. 

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I have had the SPC site open all morning, I want to see where the H5 low tracks from there will have a good idea where H7 is going to be plus H85..............

Yeah...what makes it difficult now is it is still rather broad 

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Great analysis Wiz. What are you thinking for Southbury CT USA?

Accidents all over 84

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I could certainly potential for 4-8'' on the Cape if this thing materializes. Should it materialize there is going to be some serious lift to work with. 

Yeah...what makes it difficult now is it is still rather broad 

Accidents all over 84

My interest is where it closes off before it starts to pivot, Where that happens, Is it later/sooner, That's key.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dryslot said:

My interest is where it closes off before it starts to pivot, That happens later.

That is huge and the biggest question. Seems like this may happen in just enough time to produce the good in E MA up through coastal ME 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Our catalyst is moving off the Delmarva Peninsula and is pivoting north, northeastward up the East Coast.  We had a recent lightning strike observed just east of Atlantic City, NJ

[TheBudMan]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is huge and the biggest question. Seems like this may happen in just enough time to produce the good in E MA up through coastal ME 

 

right over my  while Ray smokes cirrus ! 

 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 Decent band setting up along Rt 2 right now.  Starting to accumulate again.

[dendrite]

Actually the low off of NJ redevelops SE of the Cape and then bombs out in the GOM before getting "hooked" back in by the ULL. That sfc low/reflection off of NJ is actually progged to drift E/SE and then it gets slingshotted OTS as it almost fujiwaras with the newly developing low.

[CoastalWx]

Come on HRRR

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Come on HRRR

Shows a nice band over us this evening 

[DomNH]

HRRR is really hammering the Rt 2 region and S NH with a weenie deformation band that pivots over the area for a while.later tonight. We'll see if that starts to take shape over the next couple of hours.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Or intelligence to read anything else

I know for me its an issue of time-