Monday 12/2 Threat Disco

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Uncle

Is that a tick East of 0z?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I don't have it James, Waiting on the precip map, I can figure it out from there.

Ok thanks

[CoastalWx]

Uncle is  not too impressed.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Uncle is  not too impressed.

You can call me Uncle Mark

[Greg]

Crazy uncle against most other guidance.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Is that a tick East of 0z?

Didn't look like it, But i had to go look.

[weathafella]

Just now, Greg said:

Crazy uncle against most other guidance.

Well there’s his cousin....

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Greg said:

Crazy uncle against most other guidance.

It's easily possible. We are basically banking on retrogression of these lows with a baroclinic zone very far offshore as it is.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Uncle crapped itself 

not shocking 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Is that a tick East of 0z?

Not really about the same 

the next panel on 0z went back WSW

so let’s see 12z’s 30 hour panel !

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's easily possible. We are basically banking on retrogression of these lows with a baroclinic zone very far offshore as it is.

True, I agree with you 200%. Just looking at the latest loops and radar. We'll know in a few hours which model or models have this relatively correct. Where that swath/omega sets up, a few people will cash in nicely.

[Baroclinic Zone]

[CoastalWx]

You'd  want the low a little more S before it retros in. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You'd  want the low a little more S before it retros in. 

Exactly

is that a flutie miracle now or no

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You'd  want the low a little more S before it retros in. 

I agree Scott, I am watching to see if the meso models show this.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That’s a good look for Dryslut and friends though.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Scott N, I think the HRRR model is showing that occurring in the last few runs.  It was near Nova Scotia at hour 12z, and now it is almost at the same latitude as Provincetown

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Exactly

is that a flutie miracle now or no

It's difficult to resolve. Basically models have to nail where this secondary cyclogenesis occurs and then the complex interactions of the s/w rounding the trough will help dictate where it goes. At the same time as the midlevels start to close off and deform to the NW, the snow develops and spreads in. That's why guidance is all over the place. We have some favorable things going like good 850 inflow and WAA, mid levels closing off etc. But it may be a tight cutoff from the gentle 2-3" stuff that falls over hours, vs an uber band that will certainly be just offshore.

[dryslot]

I'll take it

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Box has 3-5” here tonight into tomorrow. Given current outputs... seems a bit bullish.

[TalcottWx]

That stuff south of LI and off NJ coast is really encouraging. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I'll take it

 

Not bad here either.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

That stuff south of LI and off NJ coast is really encouraging. 

I think we're also forgetting this has the chance of really dumping around the coastal front later on. We need to keep an eye on wherever that sets up. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

That stuff south of LI and off NJ coast is really encouraging. 

I agree, that tells me that there is plenty of energy present even with the baroclinic zone as far east as it is, we still have the western Atlantic moisture plume.

[weatherwiz]

Let's do something besides snow maps...

12z runs continuing to indicate potential for a pretty hefty band to rapidly develop and traverse the region...and maxing across extreme eastern MA and the Cape.

 

 

Also some definite potential for thunder/lightning

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Box has 3-5” here tonight into tomorrow. Given current outputs... seems a bit bullish.

I know when it rains that puts a depressing veil over everything but what Exact guidance are you looking at that makes 3-5 seem 2 bullish for Taunton...please.

[dryslot]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Let's do something besides snow maps...

12z runs continuing to indicate potential for a pretty hefty band to rapidly develop and traverse the region...and maxing across extreme eastern MA and the Cape.

 

 

Also some definite potential for thunder/lightning

Put up the Ukie

[CoastalWx]

Yep, nice post Wiz. That's what I'm keeping an eye on. N/M QPF stuff.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's do something besides snow maps...

12z runs continuing to indicate potential for a pretty hefty band to rapidly develop and traverse the region...and maxing across extreme eastern MA and the Cape.

 

 

Also some definite potential for thunder/lightning

What location?  Chatham?

[Typhoon Tip]

That's really neat looking on Rad and Sat this hour east of the Jersey coast.  

There's thunder there... and the expansion/cooling cloud shield over top immediately assumes a cylone curl, as though there is a tight internal cyclonic nucleus imploding there.  Which, that's may be confirmed in surface/buoy PP obs.... Or, it could be more mid level - hard to say. But that's cool... Meanwhile, fire hose in NYS -