bishbish777 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 00Z NAM significantly farther west than 18Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 I like everything IMBY on the NAM lol 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: I like everything IMBY on the NAM lol I concur bigtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 NAm is pretty good here and through CT for round 2. Good dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 45 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The real thump is with that stuff moving in now. I do have some questions as to how far north it makes it, but our warning area looks pretty solid. Actually...now the northern edge just 20 miles south of me seems to be eroding. Oy... Measured 1.5" in like 5 spots at 8:30 fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: With a fairly wintry next 14 days. And one or two more threats next 10 days.. will be a nice holiday vibe after countless awful December’s I'm confused, it looks fairly torchy in the LR after this week. I hope it is wrong, but that big AO spike does match with the timing. Let's hope it gets muted as my nephew would love to ice skate again on a pond at Christmas time when he comes up from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: NAm is pretty good here and through CT for round 2. Good dynamics. so close Scott to MUCH more. Nam has actually been pretty similiar for last 3 runs with E MA snows from round 2. IT has sort of increased CT's snow from round 2 and kept ours the same last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: NAm is pretty good here and through CT for round 2. Good dynamics. Wish the EPS had some of that. 18z run didn't have any big solutions like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Actually...now the northern edge just 20 miles south of me seems to be eroding. Oy... Measured 1.5" in like 5 spots at 8:30 fyi Yeah, models were forecasting that WAA punch to really slow down as the mid level lows start developing and the SW flow shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: NAm is pretty good here and through CT for round 2. Good dynamics. That is reassuring for many given that the NAM has a reputation for being pretty good in these kind of scenarios in the short term yes? And it has more recent data than the last EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: It actually ends totally at the 42 Hour mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Snowing angry in Lenox. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, models were forecasting that WAA punch to really slow down as the mid level lows start developing and the SW flow shuts off. sounds like somewhere around route 2 (out west from berks to east of ray's latitude ... may take a pounding next several hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 0z NAM maybe a slight tick east vs. 18z but still a good hit for eSNE, really nails outer Cape... and so close to a much bigger hit 24+ hours away... no further clarity or definite trend re: round 2 at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2019 Author Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, wxsniss said: 0z NAM maybe a slight tick east vs. 18z but still a good hit for eSNE, really nails outer Cape... and so close to a much bigger hit 24+ hours away... no further clarity or definite trend re: round 2 at this point Looks like its slipping away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: That is reassuring for many given that the NAM has a reputation for being pretty good in these kind of scenarios in the short term yes? And it has more recent data than the last EC. I never trust the NAM until I see the white's of its eyes lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, wxsniss said: 0z NAM maybe a slight tick east vs. 18z but still a good hit for eSNE, really nails outer Cape... and so close to a much bigger hit 24+ hours away... no further clarity or definite trend re: round 2 at this point Ya its better in CT and SE mass and actually a bit worse in my area over to say Ray but we are splitting hairs Bottom line is we want that MSLP Just east of CHH at 12z and not 150 miles east of Cape ann Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like its slipping away. Yes it does look that way. But i'm not done with it. The solutions that truly rock and that would lead to the higher end of your forecast had the LOW parked a hair east of CHH at 12z to 18z . We need at least a compromise between the relative garbage showing now (yes it still hits SE areas and PSM to downeast maine but its a scraper) and what we saw at 12z ... to do warning snows midnite Monday to noon tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2019 Author Share Posted December 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya its better in CT and SE mass and actually a bit worse in my area over to say Ray but we are splitting hairs Bottom line is we want that MSLP Just east of CHH at 12z and not 150 miles east of Cape ann I knew I should have waited for 18z suite to do final call...can't trust a 36 hr forecast from guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2019 Author Share Posted December 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Yes it does look that way. But i'm not done with it. The solutions that truly rock and that would lead to the higher end of your forecast had the LOW parked a hair east of CHH at 12z to 18z . We need at least a compromise between the relative garbage showing now (yes it still hits SE areas and PSM to downeast maine but its a scraper) and what we saw at 12z ... to do warning snows midnite Monday to noon tuesday Eh....10" over 3 days blows. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Eh....10" over 3 days blows. I'm taking over on 10 inches I do not believe we are shut out at all after 15z manana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Nice depolarization streak rolled through ORH right before the thundersnow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2019 Author Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I'm taking over on 10 inches I do not believe we are shut out at all after 15z manana Yea, me too. Just annoyed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Those snow algorithm weenie maps are all trash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Those snow algorithm weenie maps are all trash. Yup. Fun to watch and look at but toss em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Well, this is my first snowstorm since moving to New England, and now that I'm here, met winter is off to an amazing start, regardless of whether this storm has a part 2 around here. It was coming down very hard around 8pm. 3.8" and counting. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Yup. Fun to watch and look at but toss em I mean everyone likes posting them but they seldom verify with so may run to run changes or at all, Everyone sees those big totals and just goes all weenie over them, Folks need to step back, This is the first event of the season for many, And many years this date has produced nothing, Take what you get and deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: I mean everyone likes posting them but they seldom verify with so may run to run changes or at all, Everyone sees those big totals and just goes all weenie over them, Folks need to step back, This is the first event of the season for many, And many years this date has produced nothing, Take what you get and deal with it. Agree, its only Dec 1st and I have 7+ inches, if there's no part two or its less I consider this a good start to winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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