KoalaBeer Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Radars evolving nicely for this front end thump. Surprised I'm forecast to get 12 inches here starting in a few hours but am still under a WWA. Guess it's a duration thing but can't say I've ever seen that before. Got to run to the store though, moved this summer and realizing I have no idea were my snow brushes are for the cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, Amped said: Trying to figure out how this Boston deathband popped up out of nowhere the last 2 runs. There has been a gradual trend to close the 700mb low off further south near Atlantic City instead of NYC. Doesn't quite explain why it suddenly gave March 1997 death band suddenly appeared. Is it really out of nowhere though? It's been at least 24 hours of the Euro on board with a strong band, and I know I've been talking about the mid level banding signal for a couple days. I think it's key that you're tucking the deepening 700 mb low into Cape Cod and keeping that forcing pinned through the heart of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Here's BOX's current map (timestamp notwithstanding, it looks like they upped it since then). Meanwhile, they have no mention of changes of advisories in the 1:44 update, while they're forecasting a foot for Worcester. Twilight Zone. Boy, BOX has had greenfield pegged for days, nowhere to go but down from here. LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is a real tough setup. Given my mentions earlier about meso lows and vortmaxes wobbling around, the low for tomorrow night is in a precarious spot. Any minor shift and it changes things quite a bit. I’m sure most know, but I’d wait to confirm those exorbitant amounts. Agree, complex and precarious. Something in how the vortmaxes are handled and how the different lows consolidate made multiple members of 12z suite jump... we're now seeing SLP to 970s by 9z-12z Tues (deepest and closest we've seen yet) on NAM/RGEM/Euro, whereas in general prior guidance has shown a meandering occluded 980s low. The WAA tonight has gotten most of the attention, but real powder keg potential for eastern areas comes Mon night-Tues. It's precarious and guidance is just catching on. What regions benefit most, I'm still uncertain. eastern SNE / NH / ME I think have best shot. And for those who are considering now "just hours before go-time", the more relevant and distinct process of surface low consolidation and ULL capture is > 24 hours away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 42 minutes ago, radarman said: Not sure folks realize just how crushed NNE mts got in March 01. 3-4'. and the I-95 mets never lived that one down lol. After that storm all of our local outlets went extremely conservative with their snowfall forecasts. You never see a call of more than 6-12 inches on TV around here, regardless of what the models show, until we're right in the middle of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Is it really out of nowhere though? It's been at least 24 hours of the Euro on board with a strong band, and I know I've been talking about the mid level banding signal for a couple days. I think it's key that you're tucking the deepening 700 mb low into Cape Cod and keeping that forcing pinned through the heart of the region. How much does the convection influence where the low sets up? There's been some discussion of short term changes based on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: How much does the convection influence where the low sets up? There's been some discussion of short term changes based on that. It looks like NCEP guidance is sensitive to the ridging ahead of the kicker shortwave. If those heights are lower it gives more room for our storm to amplify. That's the biggest signal I see from the Stony Brook stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Twc is going with 5-8 inches for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Here's BOX's current map (timestamp notwithstanding, it looks like they upped it since then). Meanwhile, they have no mention of changes of advisories in the 1:44 update, while they're forecasting a foot for Worcester. Twilight Zone. They may be in advisory if they think ORH is just a lolli and everyone else will get less. I think they need at least half the zone (county) to be at or above the minimum criteria in order to issue the warning, so if the northern part of the county or highest elevations are getting a foot, and everyone else is getting 6-8 then it's just an advisory. Also, the minimum thresholds are 7 inches in 12 hours or 9 inches in 24 hours, so the long duration would mean it's just an advisory level storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 23 minutes ago, dryslot said: It blows actually. It’s been spot on up here this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It gave me 6+ last Sunday lol Gave me 0” and did pretty well when the others were crushing. Its all personal opinion ha. It was the first in multiple events to show red flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: It’s been spot on up here this year. We've had this discussion before, I find it highly unreliable, Might as well use the srefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdazed Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I'm deeply confused. The local stations here in RI are talking 1-3", but the maps I'm seeing suggest a much bigger storm. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, snowman21 said: They may be in advisory if they think ORH is just a lolli and everyone else will get less. I think they need at least half the zone (county) to be at or above the minimum criteria in order to issue the warning, so if the northern part of the county or highest elevations are getting a foot, and everyone else is getting 6-8 then it's just an advisory. Also, the minimum thresholds are 7 inches in 12 hours or 9 inches in 24 hours, so the long duration would mean it's just an advisory level storm. They've got the entire zone in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, snowdazed said: I'm deeply confused. The local stations here in RI are talking 1-3", but the maps I'm seeing suggest a much bigger storm. Am I missing something? Yes Dazed where in RI are you ...near coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: We've had this discussion before, I find it highly unreliable. Yeah gotta use the 6z/12z/18z/0z runs and ignore the others. Those are the extended version. I mean the normal models are all over the place too. Not surprising something sensitive and run every hour will be different. I think it’ll nail the WAA and SWFE stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Radar looks pretty far north with WAA snows just S of Saranac lake to Killington and Lebanon NH wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdazed Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Yes where in RI are you ...near coast Coventry, in the middle. But the forecast map at my usual news station is pretty much the same for the whole region: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Twc is going with 5-8 inches for Boston LOL. You probably won't see Cantore there then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Congrats @Fozz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah gotta use the 6z/12z/18z/0z runs and ignore the others. Those are the extended version. I mean the normal models are all over the place too. Not surprising something sensitive and run every hour will be different. I think it’ll nail the WAA and SWFE stuff. They are actually making real significant improvements to that model quarter over quarter. There's always an experimental version running testing out those new features. I know recent ones include improved cloud forecasts. The latest experimental improves ptype. It's replacing the NAM eventually, so wait until it goes out 60 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Were due for one of those zoinked Nam runs soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: They are actually making real significant improvements to that model quarter over quarter. There's always an experimental version running testing out those new features. I know recent ones include improved cloud forecasts. The latest experimental improves ptype. It's replacing the NAM eventually, so wait until it goes out 60 hours! I think most of the issues why people think it’s unstable is it runs every damn hour. If you ran the NAM or GFS every hour all day long you’d get some weird solutions from time to time, heck it happens even when run 4 times a day. I just think if you run any model out there right now every hour it’s going to seem to swing back and forth. I mainly look at the 4 primary runs a day and it’s no more unstable than any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 37 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: New HRRR looks much better for SNE! Enjoy this one guys. round one The fact there is that much discrepancy with in one hour of runs shows how useless it is at that range, unfortunately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Were due for one of those zoinked Nam runs soon. Well thru 6z tonite ...clown drops a foot in metro west BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 NAM looks colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well thru 6z tonite ...clown drops a foot in metro west BOS And there we have it........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I think most of the issues why people think it’s unstable is it runs every damn hour. If you ran the NAM or GFS every hour all day long you’d get some weird solutions from time to time, heck it happens even when run 4 times a day. I just think if you run any model out there right now every hour it’s going to seem to swing back and forth. I mainly look at the 4 primary runs a day and it’s no more unstable than any other model. Eventually it replaces the NAM, ARW, and NMM, and then the HREF is run with just HRRR members and you can get a true ensemble spread. It's going to be a pretty good system once we get there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: And there we have it........... I mean 15” spot just west of me and 13” in my hood thru 5am lmao ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Lol, It has WAA snow up here this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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