STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Long duration 8-13” limiting the impacts warrants the WWA and not a WSW? No common sense at all imo. ”if we have 5.67” snow in 24.2 hours then 3.9” in 7.2 hours that falls under our criteria “ just act like your going w bullish guidance if you need to satisfy some stone clad criteria for a common sense call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: Lets hear it for MET Winter. Right on que a storm. Expectation should be dictated by climo, this looking from afar. Personally I have no dog in the fight anymore which means my bias is gone. Good-luck to those who get the goods! Hey Don great seeing tyou pop in here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 KBOS behind with their snow maps. Nothing from this morning yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I wouldn’t take it verbatim but am leaning 70% toward it I just mean that output verbatim. I hope to get some of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Agree with DIT. Nice overnight trends reducing the CT sucker hole. Looking like a major multi model fake out from yesterday and back to being a fun storm regardless of precip type and amounts. ASOUT. I knew that sucker hole -for the whole state- was BS on the runs. That made zero sense. Sure they’ll be subsidence holes in areas, but not like that was showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Amazing we haven't figured out round 2 yet. Heck round 1 is hard enough to forecast right now. My gut says round 1 underperforms (relatively speaking) and round 2 overperforms. I think ORH is good for 8-14" but in the back of my mind I'm concerned they keep racking it up all day Monday on NE flow and they never ping or just briefly ping...BOS somewhere around 6-10". Jackpot zone is N ORH county over to Chris's 'hood and maybe monads and Mitch in S VT. And because Kevin will whine if I don't make a CT prediction. I'd go 6-10 there as well. Theres obviously some bigger than normal bust potential with this storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Agree with DIT. Nice overnight trends reducing the CT sucker hole. Looking like a major multi model fake out from yesterday and back to being a fun storm regardless of precip type and amounts. That was ugly for a while...If it was 6-12 hours out I would have been more worried, but there was no way that look was going to hold for 24+ hours....can we say 6-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Amazing we haven't figured out round 2 yet. Heck round 1 is hard enough to forecast right now. My gut says round 1 underperforms (relatively speaking) and round 2 overperforms. I think ORH is good for 8-14" but in the back of my mind I'm concerned they keep racking it up all day Monday on NE flow and they never ping or just briefly ping...BOS somewhere around 6-10". Jackpot zone is N ORH county over to Chris's 'hood and maybe monads and Mitch in S VT. And because Kevin will whine if I don't make a CT prediction. I'd go 6-10 there as well. Theres obviously some bigger than normal bust potential with this storm. Will, what would you compare this storm too? The three I was looking at were early December 2003 two day storm, December 2005 and last year's November 15th storm. Milder than December 2003, colder than December 2005...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 That’s one hell of a 06Z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: That’s one hell of a 06Z run. Boston gets crushed on the euro. Good luck up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yep 6 Z Euro brings it. Ray just smiled in his Oscar the Grouch footy Pjs with the velcro dumper opener in the back December 2005 had similar totals for NYC and less to the east (nothing on Long Island.) NAM might do better for marginal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Amazing we haven't figured out round 2 yet. Heck round 1 is hard enough to forecast right now. My gut says round 1 underperforms (relatively speaking) and round 2 overperforms. I think ORH is good for 8-14" but in the back of my mind I'm concerned they keep racking it up all day Monday on NE flow and they never ping or just briefly ping...BOS somewhere around 6-10". Jackpot zone is N ORH county over to Chris's 'hood and maybe monads and Mitch in S VT. And because Kevin will whine if I don't make a CT prediction. I'd go 6-10 there as well. Theres obviously some bigger than normal bust potential with this storm. Sounds about right. How much for Natick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: Will, what would you compare this storm too? The three I was looking at were early December 2003 two day storm, December 2005 and last year's November 15th storm. Milder than December 2003, colder than December 2005...... Definitely not last year’s November storm in my opinion. That was purely a SWFE. It was pretty straight forward starting on Monday afternoon last year, and ramped up consistently On the modeling right up to go time. I picked up almost 9” from that November storm last year. That was a good storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: Definitely not last year’s November storm in my opinion. That was purely a SWFE. It was pretty straight forward starting on Monday afternoon last year, and ramped up consistently On the modeling right up to go time. I picked up almost 9” from that November storm last year. That was a good storm. It's crazy that this storm is more than two weeks later and yet the air is supposed to be not as cold as that one's was. I think they blew the call on that one too- it was supposed to change to rain but never did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Convection reeks havoc on modeling, I would rather be getting the WAA snow as that has a better chance of verifying with the air mass here but that's not happening, So now we take our chances that the models are correct with the placement of the SLP offshore and depending how west/east that ends up determines how far back to the coast the heavier bands get once its captured by the ULL, Still a good 24+ hrs out on that part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Agree with DIT. Nice overnight trends reducing the CT sucker hole. Looking like a major multi model fake out from yesterday and back to being a fun storm regardless of precip type and amounts. Ggem 6 z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Amazing we haven't figured out round 2 yet. Heck round 1 is hard enough to forecast right now. My gut says round 1 underperforms (relatively speaking) and round 2 overperforms. I think ORH is good for 8-14" but in the back of my mind I'm concerned they keep racking it up all day Monday on NE flow and they never ping or just briefly ping...BOS somewhere around 6-10". Jackpot zone is N ORH county over to Chris's 'hood and maybe monads and Mitch in S VT. And because Kevin will whine if I don't make a CT prediction. I'd go 6-10 there as well. Theres obviously some bigger than normal bust potential with this storm. Whine? I’d just ask. Jeez 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Convection reeks havoc on modeling, I would rather be getting the WAA snow as that has a better chance of verifying with the air mass here but that's not happening, So now we take our chances that the models are correct with the placement of the SLP offshore and depending how west/east that ends up determines how far back to the coast the heavier bands get once its captured by the ULL, Still a good 24+ hrs out on that part. If the Surface low ends up more tucked Monday day , would that make the ULL capture much closer to the coast ( instead of SE of ACK) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: It's crazy that this storm is more than two weeks later and yet the air is supposed to be not as cold as that one's was. I think they blew the call on that one too- it was supposed to change to rain but never did. Yup...last November had some serious cold. Yes..got very little sleet with that, right at the end for a bit, but then right back to snow mix to end it. It over performed here imo. Best storm of last winter for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Ggem 6 z Damn. That’s a lotta frozen here. 8-12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Dammit we lost the Canadian s Now rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Not much change here. Still looking at ~4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: ASOUT. I knew that sucker hole -for the whole state- was BS on the runs. That made zero sense. Sure they’ll be subsidence holes in areas, but not like that was showing. The dry slot subsidence is still there just not as extreme. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If the Surface low ends up more tucked Monday day , would that make the ULL capture much closer to the coast ( instead of SE of ACK) Well in theroy, The ULL would be further west as well, But i don't know if you want that either as it gets tugged back over head and i think taint would become a problem there and east of there but you would get a congrats PF out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Ggem 6 z My oh my this is confusing. I’ll take that 18-24 with lollies though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 To bad the RGEM has sucked since its couple of coups back in 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Total precip on icon is absurd. Jack over scooter of 100mm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Dammit we lost the Canadian s Now rgem Lol, can't catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 my call for both parts KBED. 8” KORH. 11” KPVD 3” KTAN 4” KBOS 6” mostly part 2 KBDL 7” KHUBB 12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 The canadians were on our side yesterday when no other model was. Now they’ve reversed. I know who I want in our corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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