correnjim1 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well what are you expecting? They can’t get THat cute with watches in eastern Suffolk. At worst it’s an advisory. I wasn't expecting much....but as the picture becomes clearer it's not unrealistic that I will be down graded and possibly have no warnings,watches,or advisories...sorry my opinion isn't positive enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Here comes the arbiter....we should know in 10 minutes. You will see snow on your birthday so there's that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: You will see snow on your birthday so there's that Despite some half baked ideas it is indeed rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Final CMC total Seems reasonable, we’ll just adjust up if the nowcasts warrant... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Despite some half baked ideas it is indeed rare. Hopefully you get fully baked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: I wasn't expecting much....but as the picture becomes clearer it's not unrealistic that I will be down graded and possibly have no warnings,watches,or advisories...sorry my opinion isn't positive enough I will be surprised if you don’t get 3 inches minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: I will be surprised if you don’t get 3 inches minimum I agree...but I don't think what I said was unreasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Seems reasonable, we’ll just adjust up if the nowcasts warrant... Chris what is your best call for your area 12-18”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There he is! Hope all is well. I think when we mean dryslot, it’s the loss of moisture in the DGZ. That could push into NH for a time. It’s possible on Monday some areas in interior mass may get some snizzle or even FZDZ if it dries out aloft. When the storm drifts east and H7 starts to move East, we’ll see areas of snow regenerate. Perhaps even with decent ratios. Gotcha that makes sense I guess that's what I get for jumping right into the middle of this thread. I guess that would put Manch at a slight risk Monday morning then. You crazy snow weenies haven't changed! Thanks Scoots just enjoying my warm temperatures and severe here in the Big D heckling Cowboys fans with GOAT chants. Hope all is well up there too; glad you guys have your first snow event on the way. While I have ya'll here with Miller B events what are the typical QPF biases with models? I know SW quadrant typically is overdone due to dryslot risk but how about areas north and east? I guess if there was -NAO in place QPF would be underdone but open to any info you have to share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 The most anticipated 18z Euro run in history.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Upton not that impressed with part two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Thermals aren't really different through 36 but qpf is more meh on the front side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: I wasn't expecting much....but as the picture becomes clearer it's not unrealistic that I will be down graded and possibly have no warnings,watches,or advisories...sorry my opinion isn't positive enough I’m not saying you have to be like Kevin, but you’re a fart in an oxygen tank most of the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Gotcha that makes sense I guess that's what I get for jumping right into the middle of this thread. I guess that would put Manch at a slight risk Monday morning then. You crazy snow weenies haven't changed! Thanks Scoots just enjoying my warm temperatures and severe here in the Big D heckling Cowboys fans with GOAT chants. Hope all is well up there too; glad you guys have your first snow event on the way. While I have ya'll here with Miller B events what are the typical QPF biases with models? I know SW quadrant typically is overdone due to dryslot risk but how about areas north and east? I guess if there was -NAO in place QPF would be underdone but open to any info you have to share. Hope you're enjoying Dallas. I was just up in Plymouth yesterday killing my Christmas tree at Glove Hollow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 19 minutes ago, tavwtby said: like where I'm at for this one, with respect to both events, but weary of the trends and possible dryslotting... hopefully the first round holds snow longer in my area, Aly still weary as well, was expecting a wsw hoist last afd, but still at watch status, I'll stick with the 8-10 total, be happy with anything plowable honestly, ceiling is there for more... Aly has my area around a foot, I'm skeptical about that, we still have time before round 2 is locked in. I do think someone lollies 2' somewhere, possibly the Berks, nw ma? I would go with 6-12 for you, wide range to account for variability with round 2 but i think you're a lock for a half a foot at that latitude and elevation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Gotcha that makes sense I guess that's what I get for jumping right into the middle of this thread. I guess that would put Manch at a slight risk Monday morning then. You crazy snow weenies haven't changed! Thanks Scoots just enjoying my warm temperatures and severe here in the Big D heckling Cowboys fans with GOAT chants. Hope all is well up there too; glad you guys have your first snow event on the way. While I have ya'll here with Miller B events what are the typical QPF biases with models? I know SW quadrant typically is overdone due to dryslot risk but how about areas north and east? I guess if there was -NAO in place QPF would be underdone but open to any info you have to share. Let me get my Christmas tree up and then ready for work. I’ll get back to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Chris what is your best call for your area 12-18”? Pretty much, I like 14” as a happy target Which would be pretty amazing for early December. I’m not sold on the bigger numbers until I see what model say tomorrow for the coastal on Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Let me get my Christmas tree up and then ready for work. I’ll get back to you. Awesome, thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I’m not saying you have to be like Kevin, but you’re a fart in an oxygen tank most of the time. Lol I was going to say you want me to be like Kevin! Fair enough I'll try to be less of a fart in an oxygen tank..i like that one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m not saying you have to be like Kevin, but you’re a fart in an oxygen tank most of the time. I still like him more than the guy that always wishes rain on us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Euro looks a little better for part 2 on the 18Z run vs. 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: I still like him more than the guy that always wishes rain on us lol. LOL true. Nah Corrine is a good dude. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Round 2 is great on euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Yep. Much better than 12Z Just now, CoastalWx said: Round 2 is great on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Yep. Much better than 12Z Ok, now: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 We don't toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Round 2 is what interests me. The front end stuff is 2-3" and that's been pretty consistent here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Round 2 is what interests me. The front end stuff is 2-3" and that's been pretty consistent here Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Round 2 is great on euro. Details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Ok, now: tough for our area, anything from 2-12 wouldnt surprise me. It's not a huge change just better for CT esp W areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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