dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't endorse it per say, just interesting that its been very amped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: And it seems the maturing of the surface and ULLs has trended a bit faster today. No question we saw on yesterday's runs that process was getting delayed which led to some of the dud model runs I disagree....opposite, which is why the best dynamics have been extending further ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Correct me if I'm wrong, but overall, trends have been better for most folks today? Even those south of the Pike - yes it doesn't look favorable for much, BUT, we're talking about shifts of 25 miles on where the reforming low tracks that would make all the difference in getting the warmth out of the midlevels. I'm still expecting 2" of slop at my house but there's still a lot to be positive about for a snowstorm on 12/1. Definitely an entertaining first storm of the year for SNE, regardless of outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 It probably wont but there have been some W-E gradient storms, specifically the analog that i like the best...12-15-02.... where NYC got more than E and NE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 There is going to be a pork zone between forcing, bit it should be less pronounced with a later occlusion. Canadian suite places it over me, the ICON over Concord, NH...tough call. Stlil favor the northern scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Tidbits has the model derived snowfall for it. The numbers are way more pessimistic than that 10:1...more like that 3km NAM deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 21 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Where’s the sucker hole? Still TBD. Miller Bs always screw someone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Tidbits has the model derived snowfall for it. The numbers are way more pessimistic than that 10:1...more like that 3km NAM deal. I think that idea, along with the 3km NAM, is BS. No reason to go much less than 10:1to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Tidbits has the model derived snowfall for it. The numbers are way more pessimistic than that 10:1...more like that 3km NAM deal. Because it was mentioned i posted it, I find it super weenie on SV though all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that idea, along with the 3km NAM, are BS. No reason to go much less than 10:1to the north. Yeah I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I wanted to post this one earlier when i extended the 12z Reggie, It just looks evil............... 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that idea, along with the 3km NAM, is BS. No reason to go much less than 10:1to the north. It shouldn't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 That devil face East of the cape. Thats what youre talking about? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Yeah I agree. Ratios in any Monday night/Tuesday deal going bonkers would prob be really good (like the NAM scenario)...of course, believing a "bonkers" scenario actually happening is an entirely different debate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: That devil face East of the cape. Thats what youre talking about? yes lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 gotta save that one, ill remember that face when i end up with <1" of slop 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ratios in any Monday night/Tuesday deal going bonkers would prob be really good (like the NAM scenario)...of course, believing a "bonkers" scenario actually happening is an entirely different debate. It's actually a beautiful thing to watch the explicit modeled ratios blossom as the deformation band starts cranking after 12z Tue. The NAM goes from a general 8-10:1 to a nice stripe of 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: gotta save that one, ill remember that face when i end up with <1" of slop It kind of was looking your way.............. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Expecting to be downgraded to a WWA here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 It's laughing at the state of Connecticut for our high tax/low snowfall inverse relationship. Tought forecast for CT, def low confidence. Front end pretty straight forward, round 2 is a bit of a wild card. Looking to take a peak at 18Z King before map comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Expecting to be downgraded to a WWA here. Maybe, the southern 2/3 probably will be under Warning criteria but youre in the extreme north near the mass boarder. Think youre still good for warning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Maybe, the southern 2/3 probably will be under Warning criteria but youre in the extreme north near the mass boarder. Think youre still good for warning snows. It's the extend timeframe of the snowfall that might not meet WSW criteria. NWS mentioned that in the forecast discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: I wanted to post this one earlier when i extended the 12z Reggie, It just looks evil............... Demon really hates Essex, CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 yeah its 8" for 24hrs but 6" is still 6" regardless of the labels adv or warning. 6 is still a win for Dec 1-2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I’m staying fairly conservative around Boston. Too many wild cards imo. I still like those areas we spoke about yesterday. North of rt 2 into CNE and Albany area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Lots of bridge jumpers. Not sure why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I’m staying fairly conservative around Boston. Too many wild cards imo. I still like those areas we spoke about yesterday. North of rt 2 into CNE and Albany area. 2-4/3-6 for Boston seems safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Lots of bridge jumpers. Not sure why Looks like a nice base building snowfall. Hopefully there will be local skiing in about a week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: 2-4/3-6 for Boston seems safe. Yeah right near downtown Logan etc. Probably more in the western neighborhoods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Lots of bridge jumpers. Not sure why Lol, you're sitting pretty at least. Crack a couple double IPAs and take it all in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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