40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: I want that NYC burst on Monday to come NE too. Connecticut is in sort of a hole here. My money says that it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: A knee to the groin for southern CT and RI to have NYC and BOS both do better if that verifies Those of us here in RI south of Providence are used to getting less snow than anyone else regardless of where the low sets up or what the model output is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Remember a couple of days ago when Portland, ME scrapped together like 6" from decaying dynamics? This is how miller b's work, folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Here's the NBM. LOL. That blend must take into account the JMA and the NAVGEM, not to mention the French and German models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 The NYC thing is like an inv trough type thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: ouch, no kidding.....just yesterday we were dancing with 12+ on the Euro, now we can't even crack 6 inches...We might need to enjoy our 2-4 tomorrow afternoon. The ULL snows continue to be under modeled. The entire N 2/3 of CT is a virtual lock 8-12”. How many times have we seen that over the years. Each run things keep coming south and east. Patience 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: Not liking the trends on the 12Z models for up here. No cliff jumping yet but definately don't feel confident on any big snow What do we consider big? I don't see one model with less than 12" in KALB. The Euro just came out with a 16" for ALB, based on 10-1. I think we have to consider this is the first few days of December also for comparison purposes as opposed to the prime period for big Nor'easters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The NYC thing is like an inv trough type thing. Seems like it's on the nose of the 850mb jet with some strong convergence there plus deformation on the NW side of h7 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Anything over 6-8” is big for me this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 24 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Here's the NBM. That would be awesome, the meltdowns would be gold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Consider the calendar. Then consider the audacity of being pissed off with under 10 inches. Human nature and I am as big a snow weenie as they come. But I’m a student of my climo. If I get 5-6 inches I’ll be happy, Of course if I get 18 I’ll be happier...lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The NYC thing is like an inv trough type thing. Euro is a realistic version of the RGEM there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Anything over 6-8” is big for me this time of year. Size does matter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: Seems like it's on the nose of the 850mb jet with some strong convergence there plus deformation on the NW side of h7 low. Yeah the dynamics focus in a narrow area. I’m mobile so can’t see the details other than H7. I buy it, but that could shift around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: That would be awesome, the meltdowns would be gold. Obviously not including any European data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 18 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: ouch, no kidding.....just yesterday we were dancing with 12+ on the Euro, now we can't even crack 6 inches...We might need to enjoy our 2-4 tomorrow afternoon. Im not sure I would trust this for CT. It showed a snow hole with not much precip through the state. All we need is a subtle placement change for the new low, and, we will get more snow in the state. Patience my friends. I do believe we will be getting more than modeled. The precip should be more robust once Monday comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Consider the calendar. Then consider the audacity of being pissed off with under 10 inches. Human nature and I am as big a snow weenie as they come. But I’m a student of my climo. If I get 5-6 inches I’ll be happy, Of course if I get 18 I’ll be happier...lol. Yep. If I wake up to everything covered Tuesday morning and can’t see grass, it’s a win. So hard to get a biggie on 12/1. AFN can have it this early. Congrats them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Euro is a realistic version of the RGEM there. Armonk is a good location for this vs the 5 boroughs particularly Brooklyn, Queens, and Staten Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Obviously not including any European data. Nor Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Remember a couple of days ago when Portland, ME scrapped together like 6" from decaying dynamics? This is how miller b's work, folks. Often like Jan 27 2015 Portland is the surprise to some but not really, as a 90 inch winter there is pretty common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 That was a good run another 20-30 Miles east and New York City snows 6-12. I think Boston pukes snow 8-14 in my opinion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Any Pope thoughts today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yep. If I wake up to everything covered Tuesday morning and can’t see grass, it’s a win. So hard to get a biggie on 12/1. AFN can have it this early. Congrats them. I totally agree. We're in the winners circle with even 1-3" at this point of the early season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Yeah it is easy to forget how damned early it is. Getting widespread 6" and a pretty decent area of 10" would be pretty amazing for this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it is easy to forget how damned early it is. Getting widespread 6" and a pretty decent area of 10" would be pretty amazing for this early in the season. Seems like we do it 6 out of 10 years. Think back to the last 10 years. Lots of them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 BOX bumping totals up a bit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Seems like we do it 6 out of 10 years. Think back to the last 10 years. Lots of them No not this early. You have last year and October 2011...that's it. Nov 2012 did have 6"+ for interior elevations but it wasn't that widespread. Nov 2014 was a smaller area in SNE over 6". (Basically just Berkshires and ORH hills) This is also a lot higher end too than last year or Nov 2012/2014. There's potential for some pretty big amounts of it goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Nor Canadian. It does incorporate the Euro just not 12z. It has a ton of sleet to the upper NH area . Seems too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 EPS looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: No not this early. You have last year and October 2011...that's it. Nov 2012 did have 6"+ for interior elevations but it wasn't that widespread. Nov 2014 was a smaller area in SNE over 6". (Basically just Berkshires and ORH hills) This is also a lot higher end too than last year or Nov 2012/2014. There's potential for some pretty big amounts of it goes well. Kev forgets how rare for this time period this really is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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