Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I see the NWS has us in the 8-12 inch range for both systems....more like half that if we are luck right looking at things right now, clearly a lot can change, I hope they are right and I am wrong

Knowledgable dudes here say to expect the se ticks to happen later today and tomorrow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The tucked in surface with a CT dry slot...yes it has.

Maybe it has on a more westward surface low, I don't even know, but again....nothing has trended towards the notion of a shredded system for New England....which is my apparently very elusive point.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, mostman said:

That little sliver of 8-12 along the MA/NH border is funny. 

I think the reason why the weather office did that is because they believe that the higher omega maybe a little south of what some of the hi res models may be showing but obviously this can change on the spin of a dime with future runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Greg said:

I think the reason why the weather office did that is because they believe that the high omega maybe a little south of what some of the hi res models may be showing but obviously this can change on the spin of a dime.

That would be a page out of last season...always a 7-10 split around here. Then the coastal nails dendrite to the north.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe it has on a more westward surface low, I don't even know, but again....nothing has trended towards the notion of a shredded system for New England....which is my apparently very elusive point.

A shredded system or not is not what I’m debating. We’ll just shake hands here and pray the later capture verifies, regardless of our points. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That would be a page out of last season...always a 7-10 split around here. Then the coastal nails dendrite to the north.

Exactly. I'm with you. Just hope that a slightly later capture/ southeast track of the coastal can keep us both in the heavier omega instead of punting it to the Albany to Concord, NH  to Portland, ME area. You want that last piece further south around Northeast, Ma to Jaffrey/Fitchburg to just south of Albany. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A shredded system or not is not what I’m debating. We’ll just shake hands here and pray the later capture verifies, regardless of our points. 

And I'm not debating a track too close for huge sne snows...in fact, I favor it. What we need most is simply further east track.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That would be a page out of last season...always a 7-10 split around here. Then the coastal nails dendrite to the north.

We get nailed a lot less than you think.  Rarely do we jackpot on coastals or even close to it.  We tend to pile up our 70 inches by adding small events that you don't get down there.  Every once in a while we do really well in a coastal, i.e. Jan 201 or Oct 2011 but usually it is you down there over to ORH that gets the best, and then the crazy deform that always ends up in VT and ENY.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well, heading out to soccer tourney in Lancaster. Ma. 8:00 game today and 8:00, 11:00 tomorow. Should be pleasant to stand in 20’s and wind . Enjoy the SE trends as they come in on 12z runs. 

Best of luck to the ladies. Then enjoy your foot. Siggy ice still on the table 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Dr. Dews said:

we are toast if the waa snow/ice underperforms

My point is, look at the RGEM and euro snow output...the heaviest now extends further ne into Maine. That was not the case yesterday. This is becausw the H7 low matures more slowly. However what we need at this point is simply a further east track, rather than a slower capture.

What has happened is that while the system has trended towards a slower maturation, which is good, it has also trended north, which is not. This is why NH  and ME are availing of the slower capture by way of heavier snows and we aren't.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

We get nailed a lot less than you think.  Rarely do we jackpot on coastals or even close to it.  We tend to pile up our 70 inches by adding small events that you don't get down there.  Every once in a while we do really well in a coastal, i.e. Jan 201 or Oct 2011 but usually it is you down there over to ORH that gets the best, and then the crazy deform that always ends up in VT and ENY.

We’ve gotten big hits. Both 2011 storms we were in the deform pivots. We got bombed Feb and Mar 01. Maybe 2021 will be our next big year. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...