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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Because it is a comparison of a particular time to prior runs, and it has the ggem at 0z and 12z

Yea i tried to do it again at 84 for both, GFS is every 6 and GEM every 12, that's all TT has. GEM does run 4 times a day but TT doesn't have it and i believe it only goes out to 84hrs, at least on MeteoCentre models.

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Just now, dendrite said:

That'll make Gene sleep easier.

Some run like 06z overnight or 12z tomorrow is going to give PF like 18"+ and then the messenger shuffle will kick in and we'll be back to today's consensus by Sunday 12z. 

But there will be a good 12 hour period of mass panic in SNE (esp south of pike) and a mass increase in NNE posts. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Some run like 06z overnight or 12z tomorrow is going to give PF like 18"+ and then the messenger shuffle will kick in and we'll be back to today's consensus by Sunday 12z. 

But there will be a good 12 hour period of mass panic in SNE (esp south of pike) and a mass increase in NNE posts. 

It’s all good.  If we get siggy snow on December 1st and 2nd...who cares if PF gets in on it too.  The more the merrier.  Have at it.   The congrats this and that can get a lil much after a while.  

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some run like 06z overnight or 12z tomorrow is going to give PF like 18"+ and then the messenger shuffle will kick in and we'll be back to today's consensus by Sunday 12z. 

But there will be a good 12 hour period of mass panic in SNE (esp south of pike) and a mass increase in NNE posts. 

I just want to steal some Advisory snow.  Looks like we might have a shot.  The EURO having that low sitting over Cape Cod instead of the Benchmark would help a lot, ha.

The panic though is just that everyone has been watching the storm for days and there's still time left.  Most have it in their heads the models aren't going to nail it down at Day 6, so it seems like everyone has been waiting for the shoe to drop or something.  Like maybe the QPF isn't that prolific or it becomes much more banded with localized high amounts that the models seem to be broad brushing.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The final outcome is still not known. The Monday night deal won’t be as widespread over such a vast area with big amounts. Just remember past East inflow storms. They always are big amounts and under modeled . 

Yeah and remember the standing snow hole, now imagine that displaced 30 miles west, sweet

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The final outcome is still not known. The Monday night deal won’t be as widespread over such a vast area with big amounts. Just remember past East inflow storms. They always are big amounts and under modeled . 

The ccb banding will outperform qpf so those that taint and ‘miss out’ on the waa mash potato dump will make up for it with a fluff bomb. Some are too clown map results driven.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The ccb banding will outperform qpf so those that taint and ‘miss out’ on the waa mash potato dump will make up for it with a fluff bomb. Some are too clown map results driven.

There will be some 18-24” amounts. But there’s no one here that can predict where that will be yet 

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19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That'll make Gene sleep easier.

I'll sleep okay but still would like everything pushed 25 miles further north.  That sharp qpf contour is still just barely north of me.  Like to see it through the S Whites.  I'll be up at 1am taking a quick look at the Euro.  Then I'll hopefully sleep tight

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Just now, JC-CT said:

I've been thinking of you all day, wishing you a painful death for stealing everyone's snow.

Your spot is a lock.

Rare setup where we rock the waa thump then get into the secondary area of good lift in the W zone.  Not measuring inches yet because best banding could set up a little further W of here. 

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some run like 06z overnight or 12z tomorrow is going to give PF like 18"+ and then the messenger shuffle will kick in and we'll be back to today's consensus by Sunday 12z. 

But there will be a good 12 hour period of mass panic in SNE (esp south of pike) and a mass increase in NNE posts. 

I doubt we will offset the masses

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Wow, been out all day, but Franklin Co. looking well situated for this one! 

Love your spot in this.  Hubbdave to you and RT 2 still looks like it's got the best shot at going nuts. 

If round 2 ends up being northwest, you guys back towards ALB area look to be in the best overlap between round 1 and 2.

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