RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Josh Cingranelli on NBC 30 This morning said they’re thinking mostly snow In CT away from the coast Now as the latest guidance is showing colder air..at least that’s their take currently. I’m sure when the lull hits it goes to drizzle/or ZR drizzle if below 32 obviously. Last couple cycles have ticked a touch warmer in the mid levels so while surface is steady , it results in more pinging. imo only. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: I think the NAM would even smoke much of CT with round 2. that's some pretty impressive frontogenesis which traverses the state in association the the CBD. Mid levels are warm verbatim. The WAA with part 1 brings a healthy melting layer above H85 down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Last couple cycles have ticked a touch warmer in the mid levels so while surface is steady , it results in more pinging. imo only. Sleet getting to MA border for a bit wouldn’t be surprising, we know how that warm tongue often over performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: NAM is still a sleetfest s of the pike and def S of the CT MA border YEah my gut is the pellets tickle the pike region but probably after most of the meat of the WCB has fallen...CT is a tougher call. There's some runs that show a large portion of the WCB as being sleet...but some show a lot of snow first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Sleet getting to MA border for a bit wouldn’t be surprising, we know how that warm tongue often over performs. It’s always closer to penetrate then we think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Mid levels are warm verbatim. The WAA with part 1 brings a healthy melting layer above H85 down there. Wonder if there is an area of some good ice accretion around this area, just away from the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 That's a pretty weenie-ish ML look on the NAM for Monday and Monday night. Most guidance has actually been showing that but the placement is differing slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Mid levels are warm verbatim. The WAA with part 1 brings a healthy melting layer above H85 down there. ughhh yeah you're right. Introduces perhaps the possibility of some light (but maybe a tad prolonged) duration of FZDZ? What also has me worried here with part 1 and more robust totals is there really isn't much to keep the colder air locked in at the llvls...typically not a good signal for bigger thumps down in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Seems the fastest track to reduced posts would be a trend of having the coastal Monday evening trend significantly south Or significantly NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I'm glad the seemingly paltry round 2 (in MA) on the NAM is at the relatively useless range of its run. Congrats NYC as it shows though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not really a fire hose. I don’t see much banding either with the first part. It’s more of a WAA thump. After that’s over it goes to some lighter precip. That could be rain, sleet/freezing rain, or lighter snows depending on where you are. Then later Monday and Monday night and mix goes to snow. That’s when there may be some banded nature to the snow as the mid level lows track favorably. I’m wondering if Monday night is one of those deals where QPF is undermodeled. That’s a good erly flow with favorable mid levels. Yea I agree with this. Could be very meh for part 1. Little accums. All the goods Monday pm and on... Still thinking the best accums will be west and south —NNJ southern upstate NY NE PA. For our sub forum still thinking this is south of pike special. Highest amounts, south and west. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: I'm glad the seemingly paltry round 2 (in MA) on the NAM is at the relatively useless range of its run. Congrats NYC as it shows though. Trend not your friend? Again don’t lock anything until at least 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 The Pope hath spoken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: I'm glad the seemingly paltry round 2 (in MA) on the NAM is at the relatively useless range of its run. Congrats NYC as it shows though. It's just getting into SNE at 84. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: DGZ gets slotted a bit so keep that in mind. Initial Waa then like Will says east flow development. We have seen this movie. Some slots for sure but its still a -5/6 anomalous inflow slow mover. Unless we see a standing wave situation its hard to see anyone south of 1 inch qpf. Backside ratios look to be impressive. RH on the backside through the column is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I sense a Ginxy face melting graphic incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, jbenedet said: Yea I agree with this. Could be very meh for part 1. Little accums. All the goods Monday pm and on... Still thinking the best accums will be west and south —NNJ southern upstate NY NE PA. For our sub forum still thinking this is south of pike special. Highest amounts, south and west. Part 1 meh? I think it will do pretty well as long as you don’t expect 10”. I’m not sure pike south does as well as you think given mid level issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: NYC getting smoked in part 2. Don't feed the pigeons 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 38 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: He could be the best Boston TV met in his generation. Nice guy too Idk about the fanboy stuff but it was odd yesterday he said there was no cold high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm glad the seemingly paltry round 2 (in MA) on the NAM is at the relatively useless range of its run. Congrats NYC as it shows though. The NAM for the last couple of years has been much better beyond 60 but I’ve found you can only trust it’s solution in that range when it “drum beats” showing virtually the same idea over and over for 3-4 runs. If you see any sort of waffling it can be tossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 CT looks like the sweet spot. Especially NW of I84. still plenty of time, but that’s the way latest guidance appears to be trending IMO... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: CT looks like the sweet spot. Especially NW of I84. still plenty of time, but that’s the way latest guidance appears to be trending IMO... Pike man, the pike region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 This is a crusher from just north of philly to Boston in my opinion someone will get 16 inches at least if you get into the banding 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Idk about the fanboy stuff but it was odd yesterday he said there was no cold high Everyone else his Era rips and reads on TV, fan boy deeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Part 1 meh? I think it will do pretty well as long as you don’t expect 10”. I’m not sure pike south does as well as you think given mid level issues. I guess I mean in terms of how it stacks up. Much falls as frozen...little stacks up...much wasted. Seems like a 1-3” deal. And then a break, and part 2 is when it all comes together...and south and west looks best for the second half. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I’m not expecting much here until Monday and Monday night. Looks like that’s when SE Mass gets there’s for the most part 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pike man, the pike region. 84 is known as the Pike region of CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: 84 is known as the Pike region of CT? Like these probabilities 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Pope coming in handing out Hail Marys north of the pike 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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