MJO812 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 21 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Seemed like that to me too, that’s why I had asked about these things moving north as you get closer in time There is a nice blocking high to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Both Miller Bs. This is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: There is a nice blocking high to the north The trend is nice to see but it could just as easily trend the other way though I personally think it'll go even further south. But the skepticism is definitely warranted especially for so early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yep. Sensitivity was suggesting the ridging had more of a hand in how far north it gets, while the upper low was both how far north and how far west. At least I can weenie out a bit working and looking at this storm....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Where the secondary development occurs I think is more important than the overall track...also how quickly the intensification of the secondary occurs. As the main s/w moves southeast through the Ohio Valley to south of New England the whole system strengthens and a pretty strong southeasterly LLJ should flood in some mild air ahead of it. The key then is going to be having secondary development far enough south to where dynamic cooling will quickly cool the column...down to or pretty close to the CT coast. There should be a few bands of some pretty heavy snow...this setup is prime for at least one really solid band. Outside of this band (depending on the thermal profile) could be problematic with p-type and perhaps some subsidence. I kinda like Pike area...perhaps as far south as extreme northern CT for some decent snows (getting into warning criteria type stuff). I would think the baroclinic zone here is still going to be a bit farther north then it would be in another month which could hurt things for most of CT...also watching where H7 tracks b/c verbatim there could be some drier air as far north as central CT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: At least I can weenie out a bit working and looking at this storm....lol. Might as well have a little fun if I have to work the holiday. It can't be all turkey, beers, and football at GYX (I'm kidding Louis). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Might as well have a little fun if I have to work the holiday. It can't be all turkey, beers, and football at GYX (I'm kidding Louis). Make sure you mark any leftovers in the fridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Make sure you mark any leftovers in the fridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Might as well have a little fun if I have to work the holiday. It can't be all turkey, beers, and football at GYX (I'm kidding Louis). Happy Thanksgiving and thank you for all you do. In all seriousness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Starting to hint at a Norlun like feature, which the GFS has too. Wouldn't be surprised with the closed H5 and the strong primary. Going to be a long multipart, confusing storm, kind of like the January mess we had in DC last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Actually that surge of WAA Sunday could be pretty decent...even here in CT. Could yield a several-hour period of some pretty heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 What did I miss ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Blockbuster 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: What did I miss ? Euro going South 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This is? This is a Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: I’m late to this but spot on in so many ways. Made my morning lol. 12z Euro looks like it’ll be a good hit for SNE. Stake has a 140 inches of forecasted and 200 of actual every year . Pickles and I track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Happy Thanksgiving and thank you for all you do. In all seriousness Thanks. My wife is not a huge fan of this particular shift in general, let alone on a holiday. Me, I'm thankful for the 90th percentile CIPS analog guidance: 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 38 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This is? Not an A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Not an A. It’s a B by definition but is nothing like Jan 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s a B by definition but is nothing like Jan 15. Few are. Nothing like a real Manitoba Mauler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Yuck, headed to Taiwan Sunday morning, will miss tjis.. boooSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: Yuck, headed to Taiwan Sunday morning, will miss tjis.. booo Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Been ripping them back today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s a B by definition but is nothing like Jan 15. No other definition, Doesn’t mean it’s a textbook one which this one has caveats attached in the evolution, Pretty complex actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s a B by definition but is nothing like Jan 15. So why shouldn't guidance close this off too quickly like so many other Miller Bs??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 MPM is now backing away from the ledge looking at the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Thanks. My wife is not a huge fan of this particular shift in general, let alone on a holiday. Me, I'm thankful for the 90th percentile CIPS analog guidance: CIPS analog going full KU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: So why shouldn't guidance close this off too quickly??? Jan 15 was in progressive flow. I never bought the early close off back then. It has more merit here in a compressed flow. Just my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Thanks. My wife is not a huge fan of this particular shift in general, let alone on a holiday. Me, I'm thankful for the 90th percentile CIPS analog guidance: What does this graphic mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Jan 15 was in progressive flow. I never bought the early close off back then. It has more merit here in a compressed flow. Just my thinking. There is some transient NAO ridging, but its not 8SD block like 2010. We'll see- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: MPM is now backing away from the ledge looking at the nam. She’s a beaut, Clark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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