Ericjcrash Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Usually when there’s blocking the tracks change less at day 3-4 but they still change. This whole evolution is going on early enough I think we might see things tick north in the next 24 hours for a few cycles then go back south again close to today’s ideas. I’m not sure this can really slide much more south True, but look how far its came over the past 2 days. Don't think the NW tick would surprise anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 EPS looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: North of the pike is already grasping for 11th hour north ticks. Pope’s early call says southward March will continue. Midstlantic forum starts to wonder. The Pope is levelheaded. And a terrific forecaster! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 I’d assume the OP is on the southern edge of the eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: EPS looks great. Aren’t the models notorious for redeveloping and occluding too soon/far south in these situations, then they adjust north significantly as you get closer? I remember a few years ago, I forget which year and month it was, but just that scenario happened, it showed a DC, Philly, NYC hit and it ended up crushing New England instead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 53 minutes ago, weathafella said: Long duration snow event go open met winter. Perfect On the rocks or neat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, snowman19 said: Aren’t the models notorious for redeveloping and occluding too soon/far south in these situations, then they adjust north significantly as you get closer? I remember a few years ago, I forget which year and month it was, but just that scenario happened, it showed a DC, Philly, NYC hit and it ended up crushing New England instead Jan 15. Completely different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: North of the pike is already grasping for 11th hour north ticks. Pope’s early call says southward March will continue. Midstlantic forum starts to wonder. Soon we will hear some say that this can only go so far south as the south trend continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Well, lock it—For another 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Lock that run up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Lock that run upStealing everyone's snow year after year is exhausting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Watches up tomorrow afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’d assume the OP is on the southern edge of the eps? My guess is no but we shall c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, ineedsnow said: Watches up tomorrow afternoon? Please no. That means everyone will upgrade tomorrow night and I'll be left rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic because I'm stuck with warnings. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’d assume the OP is on the southern edge of the eps? Seemed like that to me too, that’s why I had asked about these things moving north as you get closer in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 EPS is pretty perfect for the pike region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looks great. Does it now? I'll give you this one but let's not make it a habit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Gateway errors inbound, Got one already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Kind of a bummer that the ensemble sensitivity site seems to be down (hasn't run since 11/26). But this storm was day 6 by then so it does offer some insight. Lots of the uncertainty downstream related to the building ridge across AK and the cut off that meanders across the US (currently along the CA coastline). That relevant patterns were forecast to really blossom today, so this 12z suite was kind of an important run in the model evolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 That ridging at 500in sctrl Canada pushed south and folding over also has a say too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 So...EPS about same as OP or no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That ridging at 500in sctrl Canada pushed south and folding over also has a say too. This reminds me of a late season storm a few years ago... i think it ended up crushing ORH NW after a few inches of slop here. Similar outcomes?... maybe starts rain here and transitions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 4 to 8 looking like a good bet around here right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: So...EPS about same as OP or no I thought it looked a bit better in the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This reminds me of a late season storm a few years ago... i think it ended up crushing ORH NW after a few inches of slop here. Similar outcomes?... maybe starts rain here and transitions Too early to say. I think you and I struggle a bit with ptype for awhile regardless. I still favor interior areas into CNE, but the euro op as is would certainly get you into the game. Your longitude may benefit. It's what separates 33-34F struggling snow here and 32F wet snow there. Just being away from the conduction of oceanic heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That ridging at 500in sctrl Canada pushed south and folding over also has a say too. Yep. Sensitivity was suggesting the ridging had more of a hand in how far north it gets, while the upper low was both how far north and how far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 27 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Aren’t the models notorious for redeveloping and occluding too soon/far south in these situations, then they adjust north significantly as you get closer? I remember a few years ago, I forget which year and month it was, but just that scenario happened, it showed a DC, Philly, NYC hit and it ended up crushing New England instead Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Jan 15. Completely different setup. Both Miller Bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 30 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Aren’t the models notorious for redeveloping and occluding too soon/far south in these situations, then they adjust north significantly as you get closer? I remember a few years ago, I forget which year and month it was, but just that scenario happened, it showed a DC, Philly, NYC hit and it ended up crushing New England instead I don't think the blocking was the same in that scenario. NYC still got 10 inches although not the expected 24. I think the opposite happened 2009 2010 when it was always south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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