40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Euro looked great. Here is my blogpost. This evening's heavy rainfall should be a distant memory by the time we sit down with our loved ones to indulge in a Thanksgiving day feast later today. Fair weather should prevail for Black Friday and through the weekend, affording many of us an opportunity to partake in that exercise in procrastination that is Christmas shopping. And as fate would have it, mother nature may just decide to make it a bit more festive as the calendar flips to December. Perhaps a snow shovel may be a suitable gift for some of us. Last Sunday, Eastern Mass Weather utilized teleconnector convergence to flag Monday December 2 as the first potential winter storm of the season. However a retreating ridge node in the vicinity of Greenland was cited as the reason why heavy amounts of snowfall may be reserved for areas of central and northern New England. While that ridging still does appear as though it will cede ground, other subtle changes over southeast Canada may act to supply just enough cold air to the regions to begin to make it look much more like Christmas. Note that the large low pressure area just to the north of New Foundland is slightly stonger in the latest guidance, which acts to hold more of the cold high pressure in place to the north of us over Quebec. This could potentially have important implications since a potent 500mb low is currently projected to traverse beneath the latitude of southern New England on Monday morning, which is a very ominous sign in terms of snowfall potential. There remains a significant chance that this system could track slightly further to the north, and the high pressure may retreat little faster, which would mean very little in the way of snow across the majority of southern New England. However current trends favor an abrupt beginning to winter this Monday, and commuters should remain mindful of the fact that boreal winter will be upon us this Sunday. First Call will be issued on Friday night. Here is the initial Snowfall Threat Assessment. Happy Thanksgiving! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yup...no complaints. 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Eps looks good Several inches for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Not holding out much hope down here unless we get stronger HP, but could definitely be a solid event inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, Hoth said: Not holding out much hope down here unless we get stronger HP, but could definitely be a solid event inland. I'm guessing the only place worse than New London/GON for snow is Fisher's Island. At least you have the excuse that you're in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Ray the 06z euro prob ticked south 25 miles or so (06z on top) You can see how the Scooter high is more robust too 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 To respond to @CoastalWx in this thread, yeah.... I’m not expecting much here. It’s still very early for us. We usually wait until mid December and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Happy Thanksgiving everyone!! Hoping for good trends today! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ray the 06z euro prob ticked south 25 miles or so (06z on top) You can see how the Scooter high is more robust too Hopefully it stops right there- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 6z EPS is getting on the weenie side now. That’s awfully close to nailing Boston. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 So basically it starts snowing Sunday morning and stops sometime Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: So basically it starts snowing Sunday morning and stops sometime Tuesday? Probably lunchtime to early aftn for you when it starts. Sunday morning dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 25 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm guessing the only place worse than New London/GON for snow is Fisher's Island. At least you have the excuse that you're in NY. I'm actually only a summer resident of FI, not that that invalidates your statement lol. I'm sure Stormsurge has woven a tapestry of obscenity with respect to winter rains which, as far as we know, is still floating in space over Fishers Island Sound. That said, being five miles from the water in KHVN isn't ideal either. We must often live vicariously through you countryfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 I’m not a fan of the timing for personal reasons. I will be ferrying various family members too and fro late Sunday. Ugh. Early season storms typically have taint issues with notable exceptions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So basically it starts snowing Sunday morning and stops sometime Tuesday? The start looks pretty straightforward (I woudn't expect anything in the morning, more likely noon or shortly after as it stands now). It will be really interesting to see how this evolves with respect to the end-time. Seems to be a lack of clarity on that at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z EPS is getting on the weenie side now. That’s awfully close to nailing Boston. Yep. Tickled a little better again. Scooter high came in about 2mb better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z EPS is getting on the weenie side now. That’s awfully close to nailing Boston. The 6z control is....out of control as well as the snowfall mean, nice to see it continue to look better at this point and hopefully not start reverse course. It is nice to have this be the EURO and not the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 eps shift SE/colder 6z vs 0z. About 12hrs slower too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: I'm actually only a summer resident of FI, not that that invalidates your statement lol. I'm sure Stormsurge has woven a tapestry of obscenity with respect to winter rains which, as far as we know, is still floating in space over Fishers Island Sound. That said, being five miles from the water in KHVN isn't ideal either. We must often live vicariously through you countryfolk. I didn't realize you were a summer resident. My brother and I used to take care of some guy's summer place (landscape) back when I was in high school or college. Taking that first ferry from New London every morning really sucked for kids who really wanted to sleep. On the plus side, the nanny who's job it seemed consisted of dropping the kids off at tennis camp was really hot, and she'd spend the time lounging at the pool in a really skimpy bathing suit. Sounds like it a scene from a movie...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: eps shift SE/colder 6z vs 0z. About 12hrs slower too Enough of those graphics.....let's post some clown maps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Enough of those graphics.....let's post some clown maps. Bread and games for the people of Rome! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 You know what a great day to wake up to a positive vibe! First Happy Thanksgiving to all that are celebrating ., best to you and your families .I just don't want to see this potential OTS by late tonight! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 How’s the eps look for my backyard? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully it stops right there- Earlier posts from the Pope creeping into the collective consciousness of weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: How’s the eps look for my backyard? FYI this is a good way to get suspended from the site. Blatant IMBY questions are frowned upon. 2 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: FYI this is a good way to get suspended from the site. Blatant IMBY questions are frowned upon. Sorry I won’t say anything anymore. I apologize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Enough of those graphics.....let's post some clown maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I have a hard time believing that for my hood. At least based on modeled temps 850 on down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Sorry I won’t say anything anymore. I apologize It’s not that nobody wants to help, but it can get excessive if anyone asks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: FYI this is a good way to get suspended from the site. Blatant IMBY questions are frowned upon. So mean and on a day of thanks too 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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