Ralph Wiggum Posted December 2, 2019 Author Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, RedSky said: My forecast was cut and looking at radar trends and 18z runs the 3-6" warning is a bust although 3" is a remote chance. Welcome winter! Got that one epic fail out of the way early. Seems years where our first is a surprise or overperformer the rest of the season sucks. Let's hope the opposite rings true here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Got that one epic fail out of the way early. Seems years where our first is a surprise or overperformer the rest of the season sucks. Let's hope the opposite rings true here. Worst thing is i saw this setup as a snowball chance in hell of performing five days ago, then all the fantasy model outputs for days, only to end as a melted snowball in hell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 2, 2019 Author Share Posted December 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Worst thing is i saw this setup as a snowball chance in hell of performing five days ago, then all the fantasy model outputs for days, only to end as a melted snowball in hell. These occluding stalled systems almost always fail. Precip shield is never as expensive as modeled, radar usually ragged, and the jackpot zone is almost never where modeled and a relatively small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Wasn't there some groundskeeper guy promising a big storm a coming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Man this one hurts, Warned for 4-8” in Mercer county, NJ and we literally got nothing. Hoping to salvage an inch of scraps on the back end as the HRRR alludes to but at this point I’m thinking this one is game, set, set and match. We are really overdue for a nice cold Miller A to bury the whole sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Feels like we've done a lot of these busts lately. I am just glad I was never in the game down here in Delaware so there is no sting with this at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Man this one hurts, Warned for 4-8” in Mercer county, NJ and we literally got nothing. Hoping to salvage an inch of scraps on the back end as the HRRR alludes to but at this point I’m thinking this one is game, set, set and match. We are really overdue for a nice cold Miller A to bury the whole sub. Yeah, I was just thinking, Trenton area got this the worst. NWS: 4-8 inches Well actually 2-4 more even though nothing is on the ground. Well maybe 1-2.....well no actually the precip is done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 2, 2019 Author Share Posted December 2, 2019 43 minutes ago, RedSky said: Wasn't there some groundskeeper guy promising a big storm a coming At least we got the dust off the old tracking links and we are officially inside met winter now. Would rather be tracking than be in a complete shutout pattern like recent Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 The Pocono's and upstate PA got it the worst as far as expectations, has the ECM ever failed this bad. Dead in that forum too like they could care less lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 2, 2019 Author Share Posted December 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: The Pocono's and upstate PA got it the worst as far as expectations, has the ECM ever failed this bad. Dead in that forum too like they could care less lol. Was pretty much across the board on models for that area. Weird that all mesos failed within 18 hours of the event like this. But thus is the Miller B-hybrid occluded slp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Was under a winter storm warning for 8-12.” The end result was ~2.” I’m actually in remarkably good spirits considering the fail. It could be because I was never that enthusiastic about this storm to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Light snow has commenced again 32.9 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Actually, if you looked at the 'total positive snow-depth change' the models really weren't that far off in most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Not even a trace in my part of Berks County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 After hours of nothing we now have light rain with some flakes mixed in. This downgrade to winter weather advisory isn't even going to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Some heavier bands about to move in here. Maybe I’ll get some more accumulation here now that it is dark. 32.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Some heavier bands about to move in here. Maybe I’ll get some more accumulation here now that it is dark. 32.7 There is stuff pivoting around but it will probably mostly stay over Jersey (although there are some bands by you). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 latest HRRR sees up to an additional inch here. We’ll see about that LOL EDIT scratch that. That is t positive snow change. That graphic says nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Light to mod snow here now and temp dropping to 32.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 It has snowed very lightly much of the day with little on the radar. A couple hundred feet lower at my son's school it was just drizzle. That said with some of those pivot bands making it back in this direction the snow has picked up as you can see below - might get another coating like this AM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Getting some flurries/very light snow with that band rotating through. Temp's 35F, so nothing is accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 .5" so far been under moderate bands for about an hour. 32.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 11 hours ago, J.P. said: Should be an interesting day. Just started snowing in Exton. Temp 34 I was wrong, today was very uninteresting around these parts. It did snow lightly for much of the day though occasionally mixing in with or briefly changing to drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Looks like I made it under one of the pivoting bands and I now have some light snow (large flakes) and a renewed partial coating on the cold surfaces (mainly cars and grass). Current temp is 34. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furrawn Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 It’s currently 33 here. We’ve had snow this evening, but it’s soaking wet outside now. The snowfall isn’t heavy enough (It’s really flurries) to lay on the ground at all. Disappointing to be sure. Still. I rather like Wiggum’s words about having a disappointing early storm paving the way for a nice winter this year as opposed to the opposite that happened last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 .75" The almighty struggle to make 1" continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 More snow rotating towards my area and filling in even west towards Lancaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, hazwoper said: More snow rotating towards my area and filling in even west towards Lancaster Yep, I got my first flakes out this way since 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Still have light snow falling here, temp 31 Picked up around 1-2" of accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Coming down nicely again and starting to accumulate. 31.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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