jrodd321 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Reminds me of that January storm last year where Poconos north got annihilated while the forum got screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 WSW just north Berks not included yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 20 minutes ago, penndotguy said: WSW just north Berks not included yet There will be a real sharp cutoff somewhere with this one. Unfortunately Berks seems to be in the cross-hairs for the cutoff. The Ukie and Euro look good, the CMC, GFS, RGEM, NAM, etc. not the greatest for our area. I'm just trying to figure out when I want to drive back to school Sunday. Icy start to the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 This one really reminds me of Christmas 2002....except elevation will not be as big a factor as back then. However, firmly believe anyplace north of M/D line could see accumulating < 2" but likely not plowable snow by Monday night. Expect that WAA event on Sunday will be less than some folks think but as wrap around develops really think current NWS WSW area especially east of Northeast extension of Turnpike and NE bound will do well with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 19 minutes ago, Newman said: There will be a real sharp cutoff somewhere with this one. Unfortunately Berks seems to be in the cross-hairs for the cutoff. The Ukie and Euro look good, the CMC, GFS, RGEM, NAM, etc. not the greatest for our area. I'm just trying to figure out when I want to drive back to school Sunday. Icy start to the day. Wanna drive my Prevost tour bus to MetLife Stadium for me on Sunday? Gotta roll around 5:30 am, go up to Wilkes-Barre and Scranton, then come down through the Poconos on 380 to 80 and be there in time for them to tailgate... Not looking forward to it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Voyager said: Wanna drive my Prevost tour bus to MetLife Stadium for me on Sunday? Gotta roll around 5:30 am, go up to Wilkes-Barre and Scranton, then come down through the Poconos on 380 to 80 and be there in time for them to tailgate... Not looking forward to it at all. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 NAM spins and retrogrades like nothing before to pull this off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 19 minutes ago, RedSky said: NAM spins and retrogrades like nothing before to pull this off In like with the Ukie and GGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 So it’s not a true Miller b? Have we ever had this setup before? And seems like there could be some serious changes as it unfolds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Can tell how quiet this place got, where this threat went... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shu Suzuki Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 hour ago, anthonyweather said: Can tell how quiet this place got, where this threat went... lol This place always seems quiet anymore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furrawn Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 So there’s no chance of the temp dropping to help the storm? We’ve got snow in the forecast (Newtown) from 6 am to 11 pm. I see temps from 39 to 37 all day which goes against the snow actually happening much less sticking... but can’t the temp end up being cooler? it’s just so quiet here. I thought I’d see excitement about the possibilities... and discussion about what white whale changes need to happen for the storm to become a reality. Don’t give up on snow and winter already. You guys really make winter and the joy of weather come alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Ukie wraps a 3-6" backlash band down through Bucks and kisses Philly, ECM basically has the same thing displaced 50 miles ENE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 29 minutes ago, Furrawn said: So there’s no chance of the temp dropping to help the storm? We’ve got snow in the forecast (Newtown) from 6 am to 11 pm. I see temps from 39 to 37 all day which goes against the snow actually happening much less sticking... but can’t the temp end up being cooler? it’s just so quiet here. I thought I’d see excitement about the possibilities... and discussion about what white whale changes need to happen for the storm to become a reality. Don’t give up on snow and winter already. You guys really make winter and the joy of weather come alive. The areas like the LV and Poconos that may see accumulating snow are in a different sub forum. The Philly area will start as a mix N of the M/D line mid morning. Turning to plain rain South to North. Periods of rain/wet snow Monday as the coastal does the tighten up. Accumulation in extreme SE PA will be minimal at best imo. Northeast PA will do well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, RedSky said: Ukie wraps a 3-6" backlash band down through Bucks and kisses Philly, ECM basically has the same thing displaced 50 miles ENE. The Euro is like the grand-dad that is starting to lose it and the Ukie is like the drunk uncle that passes out before the holiday dinner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, RedSky said: Ukie wraps a 3-6" backlash band down through Bucks and kisses Philly, ECM basically has the same thing displaced 50 miles ENE. Looks like us out here in Berks are gonna be just out side that decent wrap around as Newman pointed out to me earlier. It’s early just having these threats is encouraging 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furrawn Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, RedSky said: Ukie wraps a 3-6" backlash band down through Bucks and kisses Philly, ECM basically has the same thing displaced 50 miles ENE. I’d be thrilled to get even an inch this early... especially when the 2019-2020 winter season is looking to be much nicer snow-wise than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The areas like the LV and Poconos that may see accumulating snow are in a different sub forum. The Philly area will start as a mix N of the M/D line mid morning. Turning to plain rain South to North. Periods of rain/wet snow Monday as the coastal does the tighten up. Accumulation in extreme SE PA will be minimal at best imo. Northeast PA will do well. The Meso's are not doing much for this region especially south of Qtown to far north Jersey, interesting split in the guidance on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 hour ago, RedSky said: The Meso's are not doing much for this region especially south of Qtown to far north Jersey, interesting split in the guidance on this one. NAM crept South with the meaningful snow fwiw. Gets the nearby burbs into the action with the ULL/CCB love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Mt. Holly lofted a WWA further south and converted the Leigh Valley Watch to a Warning... Quote Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 341 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 ...LONG DURATION WINTER STORM EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... PAZ070-071-102-104-011100- /O.EXB.KPHI.WW.Y.0019.191201T0800Z-191201T1800Z/ Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery- Including the cities of Media, Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, and Lansdale 341 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze to a few hundredths of an inch. * WHERE...Delaware, Philadelphia, Eastern Chester and Eastern Montgomery counties. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mixture of sleet and freezing rain during the morning is expected to change over to rain during the afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Mt. Holly lofted a WWA further south and converted the Leigh Valley Watch to a Warning... The only warnings I saw were Poconos and NW Jersey, I know Lv had watch last night but my alert said WWA for Allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Some icing tomorrow and perhaps a little snow on Monday...not a bad way to start met winter. I’ll be happy with an inch. Outside shot at 2-3 here in Exton. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, penndotguy said: The only warnings I saw were Poconos and NW Jersey, I know Lv had watch last night but my alert said WWA for Allentown You're right - that WSW was put up by Binghampton (the point and click is acting wacky) - Quote Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED National Weather Service Binghamton NY 349 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 NYZ018-044-056-062-PAZ039-040-044-048-072-011100- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0010.191201T1200Z-191203T0000Z/ /O.EXB.KBGM.WS.W.0011.191201T1200Z-191203T0000Z/ Onondaga-Cortland-Broome-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne- Lackawanna-Pike-Southern Wayne- Including the cities of Syracuse, Cortland, Binghamton, Monticello, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, Equinunk, Scranton, Milford, and Honesdale 349 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 15 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna, Northern Wayne, Lackawanna, Pike and Southern Wayne counties. In New York, Onondaga, Cortland, Broome and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain will overspread the area Sunday morning, and continue through the daytime hours. The wintry mix then changes to all snow after midnight Sunday night, and could be heavy at times through the day Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest period of snow is expected to occur later Sunday night into Monday. Snowfall rates up to 2 inches per hour are expected at times. Temperatures hover in the mid 20s to lower 30s through the event. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorist to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadways, and traffic conditions. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 RGEM gained the wrap around back lashing into central Jersey the MESO's may be joining the club. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Attached is my forecast....apologies for the sloppy graphics..I am dragging my 1" line down to 76 - my snow forecast includes the IP which I think will be more than current thinking....plus I bet the Norlun will be backing more SW than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Can someone explain how the NAM brings virtually zero precip to SE PA with the low placement it has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Can someone explain how the NAM brings virtually zero precip to SE PA with the low placement it has? Too much dry air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I think this is a catskills storm. Will see a few flakes. Church will be empty for the first week of advent. I'm sing a solo for the occasion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Ukie is 2-10" in Bucks and 2-6" tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 ECM is warning level snow for 2/3 of Bucks county with a 4" tongue stretching all the way to Ocean City, but still screws eastern Monmouth, wacky crazy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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