Ralph Wiggum Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Looks like the potential is there across guidance for an event Dec 1-2. Going to come down to HL ridging/blocking as the ULL bowls East. Strong enough ridging to the N from S Central Canada across SE Greenland (bridge) could force far enough S to redevelop in a favorable spot. Ens and ops are starting to key on decent ridging with mslp developing off of VA Beach. WAA band could provide snow to begin then need to see how things evolve irt how the coastal will play out. Looks rather dynamic. More later gotta run: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 12 z keeping positive trends going with better ridging up top. GFS op surface for kicks and stuff: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 GFS all alone makes me weary about this threat right now. Still good trends today across all models. Think the most likely solution though is a brief period of WAA snow followed by a cold rain at this time save for Northern areas. Marginal events in early december just don't usually work out in our favor. Give me this pattern from mid dec- Feb though and we'll score more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 The primary into the lakes in early December is always going to be majority rain for us. Why people are falling for errant runs of the snow happy GFS I don't know. Those GFS runs showing a secondary forming and moving southeast were lol. Now later in the season you get a mixed bad situation that is better further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 23 minutes ago, RedSky said: The primary into the lakes in early December is always going to be majority rain for us. Why people are falling for errant runs of the snow happy GFS I don't know. @RedSky is out on this potential....noted Euro came south with the ULL pass in a beautiful spot much like the GEFS. EPS should be interesting. Looks like a 13-14 situation where models are playing catchup irt surface as things progress along. Again, if the ULL trends and H5 height adjustments continue at HL the surface will catch up to the upper levels. Really good trends today and wouldnt be surprised to start seeing some weenie runs over the next few days. If this were winter climo I would be all in. Going to be interesting tho with a dynamic energetic ull situation so anything could happen. Would be foolish to just assume this will be one particular precip type at this point. Potential is there for some surprises. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 Not many changes, still a marginal situation and a bit early irt prime climo. Low should track towards the GL then redevelop off the S NJ coast thanks to ridging in the N Atl. WAA could yield some frozen to start in spots then over to rain for most outside of higher elevations especially well N and W. Coastal gets cranking but probably too late to help with much accumulating snow outside of elevated areas again far N (and W pending track). Seems the general consensus at this point anyway. Good to dust off the tracking links early anyway. Pattern certainly looks active moving into early December and as we head farther into December and winter climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Watch where upper low moves....right now just south of m/d line....north of there will see some accumulation (1" to 3") - not all snow and not a blockbuster but for this early in the season....any snow would be a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwhiteout Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not many changes, still a marginal situation and a bit early irt prime climo. Low should track towards the GL then redevelop off the S NJ coast thanks to ridging in the N Atl. WAA could yield some frozen to start in spots then over to rain for most outside of higher elevations especially well N and W. Coastal gets cranking but probably too late to help with much accumulating snow outside of elevated areas again far N (and W pending track). Seems the general consensus at this point anyway. Good to dust off the tracking links early anyway. Pattern certainly looks active moving into early December and as we head farther into December and winter climo. Ralph - Wasn't this supposed to develop off the Virginia Capes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 People are better off if they pretend the new GFS doesn't exist 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 1 hour ago, LVwhiteout said: Ralph - Wasn't this supposed to develop off the Virginia Capes? Looked like it for several runs then overnight trended off S NJ/ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Still looking good to at least get a little bit of frozen stuff with the WAA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 Old EE rule in effect? NAM looks similar to the EPS....stronger hp, colder, develops slp farther S. Verbatim would be a brief snow to rain then back over. N zones look solid for a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Everything suppressing just far enough south to tease this region before New England gets a post Turkey blast from yore. Miller B's are from the devil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 12z Euro looks juicy. CCB right over I-95 from Philly to NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Gone be a decent winter if this kinda storm track repeats but sagged south a few hundred miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Drastic shift south on the ULL low on the 12z ECM and you get a look like the ridiculous GFS fantasy maps two days ago lol. Now i have seen everything gonna call this a phantom run cannot trust a miller B we almost always get burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 The ECM CMC today all of a sudden have a building arctic high forcing everything south thus the miracle solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: The ECM CMC today all of a sudden have a building arctic high forcing everything south thus the miracle solution. You back in bruh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 Hard NOT to be surprised at the last few euro/eps/ggem/ukie runs tbh. It isnt very often that we get systems to trend in our favor.....which is why I am still on the fence irt Philly proper. If this continues thru 12z fri, it is probably time to jump all-in. The euro showing 6-10" up here is certainly something to be thankful for on this Thanksgiving. We take for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 EPS was a nice tick S as well. Warning criteria snow up here. My gut wants to say we are seeing the windshield wiper effect. But my brain says the S trend may be legit as there is now a banana high appearing across most guidance. If that feature is real and continues to appear on future runs, we may be in business. Interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Gfs going wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Didn't like the setup last system and still don't like this setup. I've got my doubts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 32 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said: Didn't like the setup last system and still don't like this setup. I've got my doubts It is a bad setup too many things can go wrong. Real skeptical about the ECM too last year it had a number of fails in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Ukie crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Ukie makes up for all the years Monmouth county was jack potting in one storm yes it's that absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 29, 2019 Author Share Posted November 29, 2019 12z NAM looks like a slightly scaled back QPF version of he UKIE fwiw. I dont trust either tbh but it is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 29, 2019 Author Share Posted November 29, 2019 12z meso guidance showing some pingers on Sunday. Definitely trending a little more WAA frozen than the globals which can be expected as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Euro brings a little hope back to the forum. Wow is the Hudson Valley plastered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Fwiw the Ukie still wraps a band of heavy snow through the heart of the region only moved a little NE with it(still screws the eastern crowd but manages to hit central S Jersey, hello last winter lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Personally I find this map a hilarious beginning for winter it's like 2019 was re initiated if it went down like this. 1 to 9" in Monmouth County east to west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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