December 2019

[BxEngine]

On 12/29/2019 at 6:37 AM, CIK62 said:

The last 3 days of December are averaging 45degs., or about 12degs. AN.

Month to date is now  +0.2[38.3].       At this train wreck pace, December should end near +1.4[38.9].

The first 5 days of January are already averaging 43degs.

44* here at 6am      48* by 9am.         Back to 47* at Noon.  (variable and going nowhere today.)

All models have cold and some sort of snow event, but that is near Jan. 07.     "Give me Snow or give me the Hottest January ever"

 

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

The last day of December is averaging 42degs., or about 8degs. AN.

Month to date is  +0.6[38.2_].         December should end at  +0.8[38.3].

The first week of January is averaging 42degs., or about 9degs. AN.      With this start, remainder of January will have to be about -3 to finish near Normal.

GFS/GEM have a T of Snow near the 7th.    GFS goes  on to have days in the 60's.     Both models have just a Trace of a Brain between them.

HAPPY 2020 TO ALL for now.

38* here at 6am.

.6 is quite a swing in 2 days. 

[binbisso]

3 hours ago, BxEngine said:

 

.6 is quite a swing in 2 days. 

Yeah he's off many times as it looks like he usually picks the warmest guidance. There was one point in mid-December where he was three degrees off his 8 day forecast. It's always best to go with a blend of what the models show. If we use the 1991 to 2020 averages this December would probably end up right around normal which would be more appropriate to use as we are in a warmer climate now.

[Isotherm]

35 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Yeah he's off many times as it looks like he usually picks the warmest guidance. There was one point in mid-December where he was three degrees off his 8 day forecast. It's always best to go with a blend of what the models show. If we use the 1991 to 2020 averages this December would probably end up right around normal which would be more appropriate to use as we are in a warmer climate now.

 

He utilizes the GFS guidance. The forecasts are not his own. The reason for the alteration from the prior day is b/c the GFS guidance prognosticated a high closer to 50F yesterday at NYC, but the resultant was closer to the ECMWF guidance in the lower 40s. Hence, the change. Regardless, most of NJ and the Northeast are finishing slightly warmer than normal for December. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[uncle W]

analog watch...

NYC monthly average temperature from Sept-Mar...59-60 still in play except for snowfall...

feel free to add any analogs used for this winters forecast...I will add them to the list...

year...…Sept.....OCT.....NOV.....DEC.....JAN.....FEB.....MAR.....snowfall...

2019...…70.4.....59.9.....43.9…..38.3……………………………………….

1959...…72.3.....59.8.....45.8.....38.4.....33.9.....36.3.....33.3...…..39.2"

1969...…69.0.....57.7.....46.4.....33.4.....25.1.....33.0.....38.7...…..25.6"

1977...…68.2.....54.9.....47.3.....35.7.....28.0.....27.2.....39.0...…..50.7"

1992.'.....67.2.....54.5.....46.5.....37.9.....36.3.....30.8.....39.7...…..24.5"

1995...…68.3.....61.6.....43.6.....32.4.....30.5.....33.9.....38.9...…..75.6"

2002...…70.2.....55.2.....46.0.....36.0.....27.5.....30.1.....43.1...…..49.8"

2003...…67.9.....55.1.....50.0.....37.6.....24.7.....35.0.....43.5...…..42.6"

2004......69.3.....56.0.....48.2.....38.4.....31.3.....36.5.....39.4...…..41.0"

2013...…67.9.....60.2.....45.3.....38.5.....28.6.....31.6.....37.7...…..57.4"

…...………...…...…...………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

late entry...

1951......68.2.....58.6.....43.5.....38.6.....36.2.....36.2.....40.2...…..19.7"

 

[donsutherland1]

During the afternoon, clouds broke for sunshine on occasion. The temperature topped out at a mild 44°. Three photos, one of which shows the aftermath of yesterday’s pounding waves. At the end, winds gusted past 50 mph yesterday.

[gravitylover]

Yay 36 and drizzling 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Poughkeepsie area finished the month .42 degrees above normal and with 13 inches of snow. Not a bad month really. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Snow / rain mix falling right now. Changing to all snow when it comes down "harder". All just light precip though.

[bluewave]

This was the first time that we experienced 9 consecutive +NAO Decembers. Something flipped in the atmosphere following the record snows in December 2010.That was the last time NYC finished the month with 10+ inches of snow and  strong -NAO. The Boxing Day Blizzard was the most recent high end KU event for the month. 
 

December NAO and NYC snowfall

2019.....+.............2.5

2018.....+0.61......T

2017.....+0.88.....7.7

2016.....+0.48.....3.2

2015.....+2.24......T

2014.....+1.86....1.0

2013.....+0.95.....8.6

2012....+0.17....+0.4

2011....+2.52.....0.0

2010.....-1.85....20.1

 

 

[doncat]

Actually will finish here with a negative  departure,  -0.1°. Had a light shower with 0.01" so record breaking Dec total of 8.18". Happy new year everyone.

[doncat]

9 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

He utilizes the GFS guidance. The forecasts are not his own. The reason for the alteration from the prior day is b/c the GFS guidance prognosticated a high closer to 50F yesterday at NYC, but the resultant was closer to the ECMWF guidance in the lower 40s. Hence, the change. Regardless, most of NJ and the Northeast are finishing slightly warmer than normal for December. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The zoomed in map above is incorrect...unless my eyes deceive me.

[CIK62]

December finished at  +0.8[38.3] with 10 straight AN days, with an +8.3 average anomaly.

[bluewave]

The 2010’s finish with 8 out of 10 warmer than average Decembers.

2010’s December temperature departures
 

.............EWR....NYC....LGA

2019....+1.1....+0.8....+0.7

2018....+2.9....+2.6....+2.3

2017....-1.9......-2.5.....-2.0

2016....+1.2....+0.8....+2.1

2015...+13.3..+13.3...+12.6

2014....+3.6....+3.0....+2.4

2013...+0.4....+1.0......0.0

2012...+4.6....+4.0....+4.5

2011...+6.0....+5.8.....+5.1

2010...-3.6......-4.7......-3.2

[PB-99]

On 12/26/2019 at 2:02 PM, PB-99 said:

 

Don, the trough is in for 5 days before that and then the ridge axis backs up.

 

The trough drills in by the 5th 

 

 

 

And the last piece exits around the 9th 

 

You may have snowed by then. 

 

The d15 ridge is likely if the trough pulls back , but then the trough will come east again if the MJO can fade into 8.

 

There`s no S/E ridge in the 8 - 12. 

 

You have a - SOI burst, you will likely see a response on the E/C in 10 days. 

 

 

 

 

 

This still looks to be on target. Then the break is a full 15 days. Even if a piece of the W trough does come out like the 6z GEFS implies.

 

I keep hearing about the trough returning after the 20th, I think this is possible ( I guess it`s Jan and you could always snow in a bad pattern ) but for the meantime after this 5 day window which has been talked about for 2 weeks now is open.

I think it will take until the end of the month to get back near p8. 

 

Don`t be shocked if the Clipper behind the Sunday snow snows all the way to the coast.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

On 12/27/2019 at 4:41 PM, weatherpruf said:

You are right about fishing, and yes i am looking to go where the weather is more amenable to that at some point. I believe we have not exceeded our averages by much if at all in terms of snowfall, not in my region. Mild winters around here DO NOT mean better fishing; the ocean is still cold enough, and rough enough ( as "mild" warmups are often accompanied by strong southerly winds ) that it has no real benefit. The fish are still offshore and cost lots of money to get to. And the limits on them hardly make it worthwhile. I don't care for frequent huge blizzards either, to be honest ( although they are cool once in awhile....and they only really happen once in awhile )but some 6-8 inch events every year would be nice to see. Instead, we are getting those cold rains in April and May, then more rainy weather in October. And don't forget the frequent tropical storms offshore in late summer; each one roils the ocean for a week. It has been really tough. 60 degree days in December and fresh herbs still coming out of my garden as of this morning, I find extremely disturbing. I have people in Maine, and i would not choose to live there, but not because of the snow ( which they handle very well ) but because there isn't enough going on unless you like chopping a lot of wood, and I can attest to that after going there yearly for 20 years. I've seen many, many winters that are a "warm" drizzly sulk. These kinds of winters are actually more depressing for most people than snow, which actually lifts peoples' moods. Frankly though, if it weren't for some snow, I wouldn't even choose to live in a place like this. Again, who needs a whole season of cool rain? I'd go where the weather is actually nice in the winter. Probably will. Cheers.

the rain really sets off my allergies, I'd rather have dry and sunny weather or snow..... rain is the last thing I want.  We've already had way too much rain this month and this year.

I saw the weed pollen numbers were already high- for that to happen in early January must be pretty rare.

 

 

[JBG]

On 12/24/2019 at 9:41 PM, psv88 said:

We do have proof because its happening now. Each year is warmer than the last (essentially). 

I will be direct. Why deny? What is the motivation? Is it simply because it is a cause supported by liberals? Is there something else? I really dont understand why people deny, unless they work for the fossil fuel industry. 

If you believe averaged or adjusted worldwide figures seemingly made to order, yes.

[LibertyBell]

On 12/24/2019 at 9:04 PM, SHELEG said:

Climate change is a scientific theory. Not a proven fact.  denying climate does not = calling science a hoax.

Yes it is when over 90% of scientists agree

[LibertyBell]

On 12/24/2019 at 8:50 PM, JBG said:

Agreed. And their chosen remedy of a tax on affluent countries makes me suspicious of their agenda. Shake of the tin cup?

renewable fuels are not just cleaner they're also cheaper

 

[LibertyBell]

On 12/24/2019 at 6:49 PM, sussexcountyobs said:

I do not call science a hoax. Don't twist words. I called man made climate change a hoax. And again, 113 yrs is a very , very short time period to talk about global temperatures. 100, or 1,000 yrs is a blip on the Earth's clock.

and for most of Earth's history, the climate was inhospitable for humans

[LibertyBell]

On 12/24/2019 at 9:35 PM, SHELEG said:

This is incorrect. Yes we know greenhouse gases cause the earth to retain its heat in a controlled environment but we have no proof to how the atmosphere would respond on a global scale.In fact there have been centuries which had more CO2 in the environment than we have now with less warming

sure, because it's not just CO2, it's also methane.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 12/24/2019 at 9:24 PM, sussexcountyobs said:

I Do not wish that. You said once people like me, the deniers, die off. Pretty intolerant for a millennial liberal. Like I said, Karma is a bitch.

you'd be a lot happier and healthier on clean energy.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 12/24/2019 at 9:09 PM, psv88 said:

Yea. Agreed, climate change is simply poor countries trying to shake down rich countries. It's incredible how poor countries have managed to employ tens of thousands of scientists and alter data in their favor to try and squeeze a few bucks out of the rich countries. 

Unless...you are completely wrong and the chosen remedy is not a transfer of wealth. It is self-regulation by individual countries, closing coal power plants, etc. Just this week, a court in the netherlands (where my family is from) ordered the country to cut emissions, on the basis of human rights. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50864569

No transfer of wealth there. 

But, who needs facts when they have Tucker, am i right?

Denmark is also pretty progressive, they are going to be 100% fossil fuel free soon, they have one of the largest solar and wind farms in the world.  NY is headed in the same direction fortunately, we've banned new pipelines and there's a ban on fracking.  

[LibertyBell]

On 12/24/2019 at 9:04 PM, SHELEG said:

Climate change is a scientific theory. Not a proven fact.  denying climate does not = calling science a hoax.

Oh you mean like the theory of evolution?

In science "theory" doesn't mean what you think it means.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 12/24/2019 at 8:56 PM, sussexcountyobs said:

You must be joking?

dying is a natural thing- he's just quoting Max Planck.  Once people with old ideas die off they get replaced with people with new ideas- it's how nature works.

When that generation looks back they will laugh at the deniers of this one.  They already are.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 12/24/2019 at 9:02 PM, psv88 said:

Definitely not joking. I have no hard feelings, once deniers die off, the younger generations will do what needs to be done. Green parties around the world are swelling in numbers, massive gains in Europe, the younger generation cares about the environment because it is their inheritance. 

I dont blame you or others of your ilk. Just like i don't blame anti-vaxxers, or liberals who are crazy about GMOS, etc. People will believe what they want to believe. I believe that in the end, the truth always prevails. Maybe i am the moron, but i am willing to take that risk of action over inaction. 

we see that now already with the dairy and meat industries being replaced with plant-based dairy and plant-based meat.... and thats a GREAT thing.  The industries no longer have the influence they once did and only older people buy their products anymore because of their health effects and the impact they have on the environment.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Planck#Quantum_mechanics

 

 

Further work only cemented quantum theory, even against his and Einstein's philosophical revulsions. Planck experienced the truth of his own earlier observation from his struggle with the older views in his younger years: "A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it."^[30]

 

^{https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/06/business/borden-dairy-bankruptcy/index.html}

^{it's good to see the dairy industry go bankrupt}

[LibertyBell]

On 12/24/2019 at 9:02 PM, psv88 said:

Definitely not joking. I have no hard feelings, once deniers die off, the younger generations will do what needs to be done. Green parties around the world are swelling in numbers, massive gains in Europe, the younger generation cares about the environment because it is their inheritance. 

I dont blame you or others of your ilk. Just like i don't blame anti-vaxxers, or liberals who are crazy about GMOS, etc. People will believe what they want to believe. I believe that in the end, the truth always prevails. Maybe i am the moron, but i am willing to take that risk of action over inaction. 

The issues I and others have about GMOs is that we dont want large companies to be able to copyright nature and then to sue people whose lands they blow onto- but we now have new tech that replaces GMO that is far better and does not need any pesticides.  I also like universities and nonprofits developing tech far more than companies like the (former) Monsanto which has a pretty dark history and got sued into oblivion. Well now that's on Bayer's dirty hands lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

the sea level rises that have been occurring in SC, FL and LA are pretty undeniable at this point, we've even seen it here on the south shore of LI.