December 2019

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m also willing to bet that March is a freezer. It’s become a yearly tradition. May be climate change related in the Pacific tropical forcing, with the wavelengths shortening at that time but there is a huge tendency for both November and March to be cold/very cold months the last several years

The other tendency is for -NAO/-AO blocks to form in mid to late March and lock in through the end of April

[495weatherguy]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The other tendency is for -NAO/-AO blocks to form in mid to late March and lock in through the end of April

I hope on this that you are wrong----as for a warm, relatively snowless winter, bring it on

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I hope on this that you are wrong----as for a warm, relatively snowless winter, bring it on

Haven't you had your fill? I mean, much warmer than what we've had and we might as well be in S Carolina...and I don't just mean this year. Mild winters have been the norm in my lifetime, outside a few wild years in the 2000's and 2 years in the 90's...

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I hope on this that you are wrong----as for a warm, relatively snowless winter, bring it on

I do too but if I’m a betting man, March is colder than normal and most likely so is April. For whatever reason and I do believe climate change is playing some role, the -AO/-NAO shows up like clockwork around mid to late March and locks in. You can set your watch to it

[495weatherguy]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Haven't you had your fill? I mean, much warmer than what we've had and we might as well be in S Carolina...and I don't just mean this year. Mild winters have been the norm in my lifetime, outside a few wild years in the 2000's and 2 years in the 90's...

No, I have not had my fill--whatever that means.  Look, I love snowstorms as much as, if not more than any other.  What I don't like is the disruption they cause, the potential for damage, general disarray they cause during the week.  Let us get huge blizzards on Friday nights, and have it all melted away by Sunday night.  

The winters that we have had in the last 20 years are overall remarkable--but they are not average or sustainable.  Look at the long term averages---we have exceeded--no blown past-the normal snowfalls an inordinate amount in the last 20 years.

We don't live in Maine, we live near the ocean(not all, most)and that has an influence on our precipitation

The 70's and 80's were plenty cold, we seemed to get cold rain most of the time

And as someone who says he loves to fish, I would think you would want warmer weather where you can get outside and enjoy your hobby more

 

Finally, people are allowed to openly root for snow, but a divergent opinion is not allowed?

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I hope on this that you are wrong----as for a warm, relatively snowless winter, bring it on

Pattern progression has been almost identical to last season. 

I'd be shocked if March/April were warm.

[495weatherguy]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Pattern progression has been almost identical to last season. 

I'd be shocked if March/April were warm.

I hope we have a nice spring

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The other tendency is for -NAO/-AO blocks to form in mid to late March and lock in through the end of April

I like early April snowfalls, so bring it on!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I’m also willing to bet that March is a freezer. It’s become a yearly tradition. May be climate change related in the Pacific tropical forcing, with the wavelengths shortening at that time but there is a huge tendency for both November and March to be cold/very cold months the last several years

Some of the long range forecasts had a cold/snowy February.  How do you feel about that?

 

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Some of the long range forecasts had a cold/snowy February.  How do you feel about that?

 

They had a cold/snowy January and we’re headed for warmth and cutters just like last year.  So much for that. 

[Brian5671]

54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Pattern progression has been almost identical to last season. 

I'd be shocked if March/April were warm.

Yep.  Despite analogs that showed a different pattern. Analogs becoming less reliable as base state is warmer as well as oceans warmer...

[CIK62]

The EURO WEEKLIES put winter on a train and then send it flying off the next trestle into a gorge.

It divides the country into seemingly equal halves and you already know which halve we are going to be in.         There are two short breaks, though the length of the second one at the end of the run, can not be known.      These 'breaks' allow for a short normal period to exist.        Snow totals look OK considering all the warmth.  

Meanwhile the experts have the Christmas vacation period to think up some excuses and keep their paying customers happy with new ideas on StratWarmings, QBO, MJO, ENSO,IOD, TeleCons., warm blobs, cold blobs, FBI, CIA, Military Intelligence-----(only kidding the last three) and processes yet to be discovered!

Besides I read all this in the entrails of a donkey.      <<<Got that from some Biblical movie line.

[bluewave]

We really need to lose that Niña-like ridge north of Hawaii for an improved storm track. All the storms since last winter have been cutting or hugging. Each storm kicks up the SE ridge out ahead of it. This is probably related to the warmest SST departures west of the date line and cooler near South America. The warm SST departures in the WPAC also lead to more MJO phase 4-6 forcing.

This winter so far

Last winter

La Niña 500 mb composite

Current SST departures

 

 

 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We really need to lose that Niña-like ridge north of Hawaii for an improved storm track. All the storms since last winter have been cutting or hugging. Each storm kicks up the SE ridge out ahead of it. This is probably related to the warmest SST departures west of the date line and cooler near South America. The warm SST departures in the WPAC also lead to more MJO phase 4-6 forcing.

This winter so far

Last winter

La Niña 500 mb composite

Current SST departures

 

 

 

 

 

 

For the la Nina years we scored big i.e. 96 and 2011, was our success due to blocking alone with the bad pac?

[Isotherm]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We really need to lose that Niña-like ridge north of Hawaii for an improved storm track. All the storms since last winter have been cutting or hugging. Each storm kicks up the SE ridge out ahead of it. This is probably related to the warmest SST departures west of the date line and cooler near South America. The warm SST departures in the WPAC also lead to more MJO phase 4-6 forcing.

This winter so far

Last winter

La Niña 500 mb composite

Current SST departures

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chris: nice post. In my post mortem analysis last winter, I noted that the z50 negative QBO in concert with robust BDC and protracted SSW length, likely enhanced the intraseasonal-MJO signal, aiding in deceleration, and thus the resultant anomalous warmth across the East [Dec 2018]. 2018 arose quite a bit in my 'differential diagnosis' of this present winter's factors. One difference is the z50 QBO state, which I think, via that indirect pathway, allowed the MJO to remain a bit less coherent this month versus December 2018, and thus, not as warm on the East Coast. However, many of the precursor variables extant last winter are once again present this year, and so, these largely unfavorable storm tracks are concordant with those variables.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

No, I have not had my fill--whatever that means.  Look, I love snowstorms as much as, if not more than any other.  What I don't like is the disruption they cause, the potential for damage, general disarray they cause during the week.  Let us get huge blizzards on Friday nights, and have it all melted away by Sunday night.  

The winters that we have had in the last 20 years are overall remarkable--but they are not average or sustainable.  Look at the long term averages---we have exceeded--no blown past-the normal snowfalls an inordinate amount in the last 20 years.

We don't live in Maine, we live near the ocean(not all, most)and that has an influence on our precipitation

The 70's and 80's were plenty cold, we seemed to get cold rain most of the time

And as someone who says he loves to fish, I would think you would want warmer weather where you can get outside and enjoy your hobby more

 

Finally, people are allowed to openly root for snow, but a divergent opinion is not allowed?

You are right about fishing, and yes i am looking to go where the weather is more amenable to that at some point. I believe we have not exceeded our averages by much if at all in terms of snowfall, not in my region. Mild winters around here DO NOT mean better fishing; the ocean is still cold enough, and rough enough ( as "mild" warmups are often accompanied by strong southerly winds ) that it has no real benefit. The fish are still offshore and cost lots of money to get to. And the limits on them hardly make it worthwhile. I don't care for frequent huge blizzards either, to be honest ( although they are cool once in awhile....and they only really happen once in awhile )but some 6-8 inch events every year would be nice to see. Instead, we are getting those cold rains in April and May, then more rainy weather in October. And don't forget the frequent tropical storms offshore in late summer; each one roils the ocean for a week. It has been really tough. 60 degree days in December and fresh herbs still coming out of my garden as of this morning, I find extremely disturbing. I have people in Maine, and i would not choose to live there, but not because of the snow ( which they handle very well ) but because there isn't enough going on unless you like chopping a lot of wood, and I can attest to that after going there yearly for 20 years. I've seen many, many winters that are a "warm" drizzly sulk. These kinds of winters are actually more depressing for most people than snow, which actually lifts peoples' moods. Frankly though, if it weren't for some snow, I wouldn't even choose to live in a place like this. Again, who needs a whole season of cool rain? I'd go where the weather is actually nice in the winter. Probably will. Cheers.

[PB-99]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

They had a cold/snowy January and we’re headed for warmth and cutters just like last year.  So much for that. 

This cuts across by day 8 

 

 

I am plus 1 for the month , but where is the "warmth"  in the L/R ? 

That would snow all the way to the M/D line. 

The reason the 2ms aren`t that cold N to s BN is because the source region is Meh.

 

But +1 / -1 in mid Jan would be - -8 / -10 in early December.

 

There`s no " warmth " in the L/R 

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

For the la Nina years we scored big i.e. 96 and 2011, was our success due to blocking alone with the bad pac?

95-96 was.  10-11 I think was the result somewhat of a lag in the atmosphere from the strong Niño the prior winter which led to blocking early.  Once past 1/20-1/25 or so that blocking was gone and the winter was over.  95-96 was also an extremely weak La Niña on the order of like a 2000-2001

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

They had a cold/snowy January and we’re headed for warmth and cutters just like last year.  So much for that. 

No offense dude, you wrote off Dec in late Nov

3 weeks of cold and 3 separate snow events

 

You really need to learn from your mistakes

 

You cant write off Jan on Dec 27.

 

Stop it for the integrity of the forum

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

95-96 was.  10-11 I think was the result somewhat of a lag in the atmosphere from the strong Niño the prior winter which led to blocking early.  Once past 1/20-1/25 or so that blocking was gone and the winter was over.  95-96 was also an extremely weak La Niña on the order of like a 2000-2001

I do remember experts saying that they did not expect such a parade of storms in 10-11, and had not called for it, but the -NAO overrode the conditions. That is how I recall the discussion anyway.

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Chris: nice post. In my post mortem analysis last winter, I noted that the z50 negative QBO in concert with robust BDC and protracted SSW length, likely enhanced the intraseasonal-MJO signal, aiding in deceleration, and thus the resultant anomalous warmth across the East [Dec 2018]. 2018 arose quite a bit in my 'differential diagnosis' of this present winter's factors. One difference is the z50 QBO state, which I think, via that indirect pathway, allowed the MJO to remain a bit less coherent this month versus December 2018, and thus, not as warm on the East Coast. However, many of the precursor variables extant last winter are once again present this year, and so, these largely unfavorable storm tracks are concordant with those variables.

Thanks, Tom. The ENSO blog summed up several of the points we mentioned here going back to the fall of 2018. They discuss the warmest SST departures over the WPAC relative to further east. Another recent paper showed how the rapid expansion of that  warm pool shifted the MJO to more frequent phase 4-6 episodes. 
 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

The following figure shows how sea surface temperatures in the fall of 2018 differed from those of a typical El Niño of similar strength (1). Compared with a typical El Niño, the fall of 2018 featured a warmer sea surface in the western Pacific and a cooler sea surface in the eastern Pacific. This signifies an enhancement of the east-west sea surface temperature gradient relative to typical El Niño conditions. In other words, we failed to see the eastward movement of the warmest surface waters that we usually see with El Niño. It looks like this suspect fits the profile!

The September–November difference in sea surface temperature between 2018 and a typical El Niño of similar strength. The typical El Niño sea surface temperature pattern was determined as a scaled average of all events since 1979 (13 total). In 2018, the sea surface temperature was warmer than typical over the western Pacific but cooler than typical over the eastern tropical Pacific, which indicates a stronger east-west temperature gradient than typically experienced during an El Niño fall. The white boxes indicate regions used to define a gradient index (west minus east) that measures the strength of the east-west temperature gradient. Climate.gov figure from ERSSTv5 data.

 

 

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

No offense dude, you wrote off Dec in late Nov

3 weeks of cold and 3 separate snow events

 

You really need to learn from your mistakes

 

You cant write off Jan on Dec 27.

 

Stop it for the integrity of the forum

Yeah we did better than expected but most of the storms had the s ones to our north and the 12/20 on warmth will more than wipe out the early month negative departures.   A big PV up north and a +AO and +NAO do not look good for cold for at least the first half of January if not longer. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

For the la Nina years we scored big i.e. 96 and 2011, was our success due to blocking alone with the bad pac?

Our successful La Niña snowfall seasons have the PAC ridge shifted closer to the West Coast and -NAO intervals. 

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Please just stop. 

Didn’t say there would be no cold. Sure we’ll get some cold but doesn’t look like anything long lasting if you look at the broader picture.   Your map is a snapshot in time. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, PB-99 said:

This cuts across by day 8 

 

 

I am plus 1 for the month , but where is the "warmth"  in the L/R ? 

That would snow all the way to the M/D line. 

The reason the 2ms aren`t that cold N to s BN is because the source region is Meh.

 

But +1 / -1 in mid Jan would be - -8 / -10 in early December.

 

There`s no " warmth " in the L/R 

 

 

My worry here is the MJO.  If we see it head to 4-5-6 the cold will be muted 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, PB-99 said:

This cuts across by day 8 

 

 

I am plus 1 for the month , but where is the "warmth"  in the L/R ? 

That would snow all the way to the M/D line. 

The reason the 2ms aren`t that cold N to s BN is because the source region is Meh.

 

But +1 / -1 in mid Jan would be - -8 / -10 in early December.

 

There`s no " warmth " in the L/R 

 

 

Gefs is also similar 

Seems like everyone gave up on JANUARY today

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

No offense dude, you wrote off Dec in late Nov

3 weeks of cold and 3 separate snow events

 

You really need to learn from your mistakes

 

You cant write off Jan on Dec 27.

 

Stop it for the integrity of the forum

Brian jumps the gun. Hes a good dude.

[bluewave]

Today was the warmest departure of the month in NYC at +16.

TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         54    359 PM  63    1949  40     14       44       
  MINIMUM         46    227 AM   6    1872  29     17       37       
  AVERAGE         50                        34     16       41      

[doncat]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Today was the warmest departure of the month in NYC at +16.

TEMPERATURE (F)                                                     
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         54    359 PM  63    1949  40     14       44       
  MINIMUM         46    227 AM   6    1872  29     17       37       
  AVERAGE         50                        34     16       41      

Have had a lot of good radiating nights outside of city...Yeah today was my first big +departure with a 54/43 temp split.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

January and February are the snowiest and coldest months. Giving up on winter now is the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. Let it play out!

 

again saw more geese head south, snow is coming!

No one is giving up just pointing out that major changes are needed for something decent to lock in.   Next few weeks don’t look good. Beyond that is a crap shoot 

[donsutherland1]

Despite mainly cloudy skies, unseasonably mild conditions continued to erase the cold anomalies that had built up through December 21 in the Middle Atlantic region.

The closing days of December will generally be warmer to occasionally much warmer than normal. Based on the latest guidance, the warmth will likely be sufficient to ensure that most of the Middle Atlantic region will wind up somewhat warmer to warmer than normal for December.

Through December 26, monthly anomalies for select cities were:

Baltimore: +1.0°, Boston: +0.7°, Islip: -0.3°, New York City: -0.9°, Newark: -0.8°, Philadelphia: -0.4°, and Washington, DC: +0.3°.

A short-duration cold shot is possible late in the first week of January into the second week of January. Nevertheless, there is a growing risk that New York City and Newark could have an average temperature near or even above 40° for the first week of January. Afterward, the predominant state of the EPO will likely be crucial to the persistence of any colder patterns.

Based on the forecast strongly positive AO to start January, the probability of a significant (6" or greater snowstorm) for the major cities of the Middle Atlantic region during the first week of January is low. Since 1950, the biggest snowfall for that region when the AO was +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period occurred during January 14-15, 1954 when Philadelphia received 3.0" snow and New York City picked up 2.0". Boston has had numerous 6" or greater snowstorms during such cases, including one 10" or greater snowstorm. Therefore, the risk of significant snow would likely be greatest over New England assuming this relationship holds (no significant offsetting variables).

Despite the development of a sustained colder than normal temperature regime, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is nearing the end of its warmest year on record. 2019 will likely conclude with a mean temperature of 20.8°. The existing record is 18.9°, which was set in 2016. Currently, 2017 ranks as the second warmest year and 2018 ranks as the fourth warmest year.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -17.49 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.389.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 5, but warming above 3 mb will likely commence in coming days. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively muted into the first week of January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold well into the first week of January on the EPS.

On December 26, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.577 (RMM). The December 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.524.

Since 1974, there were five cases when the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the December 20-31 period, as has been the case this year. The temperature anomalies were closely tied to how much time the MJO spent in Phase 8 during that timeframe. The mean temperature for cases with more than 5 such days was 29.0° in New York City. The mean temperature for those with 5 or fewer such days was 36.1°. The overall 1981-2019 mean temperature for January 1-15 is 33.8°.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that December will wind up warmer than normal in New York City with a monthly mean temperature near 38.7°.

At present, a warmer than normal January appears likely in the region.