December 2019

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this feels nino ish. enjoy feb and march

Yeah it’s nowhere near as bad as last year with a SOI of like -100 and there being zero periods of a NAO/AO at all.  It’s likely gonna flip at some point  

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Colts Neck has 6 in December as does PSV out on Long Island, and I believe UNC in Staten Island has 4.5 , all AN.  The city was jumped twice.

Not saying it was snowy by any means and my Dec departure is plus 1 as is my Jan departure. ( Feb was always my best month ).

But the main issue is the ridge is too far west, we don`t have a fast PAC like last year and the result is the same but how we are getting there is different. 

Snowfall totals from NYC out along the South Shore of Long Island were on the low side this month. The Pacific Jet has still been very fast with the record low pressure in California and rainfall in Seattle. The mean Pacific ridge position has been stuck north of Hawaii since last winter. Maybe we need a stronger El Niño development down the line to flip the Pacific out of this stagnant pattern. But it seems like all the warm PAC SSTs west of the DL are mismatched with the  El Niño development. Those same warm WPAC SSTs amp up the MJO in the unfavorable phases.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah March, given how eerily identical the pattern progression has been I'd be shocked if March/April weren't cold/wet.

Last spring was a disaster. We were having cold, seriously cold, rains in May. I didn't plant until June, and that's really late for me. As an aside it was the best year I've ever had for sweet banana peppers, my freezer is stuffed with them. Picked em right up until the first hard frost in Nov.

[Isotherm]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This week was another great example of the week 2 forecasts not being able  to see the SE ridge. But you knew this would happen with such an unfavorable Pacific. 

Forecast

Verification

 

 

 

In addition to your veracious comments above -- note ozone concentration propensity, which is highly reflective/comports with the mean z500 structure hemispherically. Increased ozone residence over the WPO/West EPO domains will continue to promote higher geopotential heights, whilst lower ozone concentrations in the means near the North Pole/Greenland will promote the overall +NAO paradigm maintenance, prospectively. When one considers the forthcoming AAM cycling, that too, comports with the NWP's modeled Nina-esque z500 structure in the medium term.

 

[PB-99]

12 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

 

In addition to your veracious comments above -- note ozone concentration propensity, which is highly reflective/comports with the mean z500 structure hemispherically. Increased ozone residence over the WPO/West EPO domains will continue to promote higher geopotential heights, whilst lower ozone concentrations in the means near the North Pole/Greenland will promote the overall +NAO paradigm maintenance, prospectively. When one considers the forthcoming AAM cycling, that too, comports with the NWP's modeled Nina-esque z500 structure in the medium term.

 

 

The problem is your not centering the Positive over the deepest concentration, if we did,  that Pos would be bleeding into W Canada and we would be fine.

 

The positive is setting up on the periphery out S of the Aleutians.

 

[frd]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

the mean Pacific ridge position has been stuck north of Hawaii since last winter. Maybe we need a stronger El Niño development down the line to flip the Pacific out of this stagnant pattern. But it seems like all the warm PAC SSTs west of the DL are mismatched with the  El Niño development. Those same warm WPAC SSTs amp up the MJO in the unfavorable phases.

Wondering the impacts of the declining +IOD for Feb and the first half of March.

The last update, from two days ago came in at +0.6 C. Pretty decent drop continues from October when it was 2.2 C. Hopefully this will impact the Pac forcing and eventually lead to a more traditional and assertive West Pac/date line event. 

I see you mentioned the warm WPAC SSTs and amp up of the unfavorable MJO phases. Do you feel the declining +IOD will effect this area of SSTs, or whether it might mute the effects ? 

Eric Webbs stated recently, as well as others, that we should begin to see a more favorable pattern for cold deliver into the East later in Jan.

As you know model error and forecast uncertainty reigns this early winter.  A continuation from December really.  If we can achieve a more coherent MJO progression maybe more faith can be given to the models beyond day 6. And truth be told there is more to the global drivers than just the MJO, but here I am focusing on MJO behavior. 

              

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, frd said:

Wondering the impacts of the declining +IOD for Feb and the first half of March.

The last update, from two days ago came in at +0.6 C. Pretty decent drop continues from October when it was 2.2 C. Hopefully this will impact the Pac forcing and eventually lead to a more traditional and assertive West Pac/date line event. 

I see you mentioned the warm WPAC SSTs and amp up of the unfavorable MJO phases. Do you feel the declining +IOD will effect this area of SSTs, or whether it might mute the effects ? 

Eric Webbs stated recently, as well as others, that we should begin to see a more favorable pattern for cold deliver into the East later in Jan.

As you know model error and forecast uncertainty reigns this early winter.  A continuation from December really.  If we can achieve a more coherent MJO progression maybe more faith can be given to the models beyond day 6. And truth be told there is more to the global drivers than just the MJO, but here I am focusing on MJO behavior. 

              

Yeah, it was a steep +IOD decline over the last few weeks. This coincided with our late December warm up and mild MJO 4-6 forcing. Looks like the first few days of January have a lingering mild 6 pattern .By Jan 5h, models are producing more of a phase 7 look. This could mean a return to normal or below normal temperatures. Beyond the 5th, models are hinting at forcing returning to the Maritime Continent 4 -5 phases. Obviously, these day 11-15 forecasts have been very low skill. But my concern is that the weaker IOD influence may eventually lead to more amplified forcing in those unfavorable phases. 

 

 

 

 

[forkyfork]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it was a steep +IOD decline over the last few weeks. This coincided with our late December warm up and mild MJO 4-6 forcing. Looks like the first few days of January have a lingering mild 6 pattern .By Jan 5h, models are producing more of a phase 7 look. This could mean a return to normal or below normal temperatures. Beyond the 5th, models are hinting at forcing returning to the Maritime Continent 4 -5 phases. Obviously, these day 11-15 forecasts have been very low skill. But my concern is that the weaker IOD influence may eventually lead to more amplified forcing in those unfavorable phases. 

 

 

 

 

maybe as the wpac warm pool expands over the coming decades we can get it to reach into the favorable regions for forcing 

[frd]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But my concern is that the weaker IOD influence may eventually lead to more amplified forcing in those unfavorable phases. 

 

bluewave, that is an interesting concern. I have read, from a couple mets, that the desire for colder outcomes in the East eventually rested in part to a weakening of the record +IOD. 

I did not come across any mentions of weaker IOD influence leading to more amplified forcing in those unfavorable phases. 

Unless, I misunderstood what Webb posted, I thought that when the IOD weakened it would enable more traditional and assertive West Pac forcing to arise, and even the possibility of increased -NAO phases. 

I would appreciate why you feel the weakening + IOD might be a concern.  Honestly, I was happy to see the + IOD weaken, now you have me concerned.   

For reference, here is one of Webb's posts regarding the weakening IOD. Please take note, this is from back on December 10th, simply inserting it here so you can get a better idea of what I was referring to .  

 

  

 

 

[MJO812]

2nd week of January looks really cold on the gfs, gets and eps.

[donsutherland1]

Just before sunrise today:

[the_other_guy]

Just drove from Westchester to Cleveland.

Real warmth starts in western 1/3 of Penn.

64 in Youngstown, 62 in Cleveland...With the sun down on December 26

Long story short, It could be worse for us in the Northeast...

[bluewave]

bluewave, that is an interesting concern. I have read, from a couple mets, that the desire for colder outcomes in the East eventually rested in part to a weakening of the record +IOD. 

I did not come across any mentions of weaker IOD influence leading to more amplified forcing in those unfavorable phases. 

Unless, I misunderstood what Webb posted, I thought that when the IOD weakened it would enable more traditional and assertive West Pac forcing to arise, and even the possibility of increased -NAO phases. 

I would appreciate why you feel the weakening + IOD might be a concern.  Honestly, I was happy to see the + IOD weaken, now you have me concerned.   

The +IOD was associated with subsidence near the Maritime Continent during the first half of December. As the +IOD weakened, forcing returned there the last 10 days. It coincided with all the record warmth across the US this week. Now the Euro has forcing returning to phases 4-5 in early January. But there is a lag with the MJO. So the first few days of of January will have a lingering mild phase 5-6 influence. Then a colder pattern following the phase 7 passage. Finally, that cool down may be followed by a phase 4-5 warm up. The pertinent forcing changes are all within the more reliable day 1-10 period.

 

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, PB-99 said:

 

The + AO regime portrayed now is due to the TPV sitting in W Canada, so the heights underneath are higher but not warm.

The 9 - 13 is BN for good reason, you are getting pieces of the trough to break off with short wavelengths.

 

 

Is it transient ( 4 - 5 days ) possible , the ridge out near the Aleutians is  a little too far west and doesn`t eject the low heights out of W Canada.

Any softening there will allow the negative to drain down along the Rockies and that`s what kicks the SE ridge up.

I am not even looking at day 15, I am looking closer in by day 10. 

 

Here`s your problem the ridge is too far S and not far enough E , so as it releases the trough does not drive S/E it drives due S.

 

That`s what causes the SE ridge to pop back up.

 

And it should until the MJO reaches p8 and pushes this along. 

 

 

 

We agree about the possible day 9-13 cold shot. I believe the modeled idea is legitimate. I am concerned how things might evolve should Atlantic and Pacific blocking fail to develop: namely the risk of a multi-week warm regime. I think we'll get some opportunities for snowfall, but am less certain about the monthly anomaly. I'm looking at a lot of data, but the forecast teleconnections argue that a mild January is not implausible. 

[donsutherland1]

Record high temperatures were recorded in parts of the Great Lakes region today. Record highs included:

Chicago: 61° (old record: 55°, 1971); Detroit: 58° (old record: 57°, 2016); Milwaukee: 58° (old record: 51°, 1936 and 2018); and, Toledo: 63° (old record: 62°, 1888).

The closing days of December will generally be warmer to occasionally much warmer than normal. Based on the latest guidance, the warmth will likely be sufficient to ensure that much of the Middle Atlantic region will wind up somewhat warmer to warmer than normal for December.

Through today, New York City's highest temperature this December is 58°, which occurred on December 10. The last December to have a monthly maximum temperature below 60° was December 2005 when the temperature peaked at 55° on December 24. However, the potential exists for the temperature to approach or reach 60° in New York City during the December 29-30 period.

Through December 25, monthly anomalies for select cities were:

Baltimore: +0.8°, Boston: +0.5°, Islip: -0.5°, New York City: -1.2°, Newark: -1.0°, Philadelphia: -0.5°, and Washington, DC: +0.1°.

Colder air could return during the first week of January. The progression of the MJO in concert with the teleconnections could be crucial in determining whether most of North America's cold air stays bottled up north of the Canada-U.S. border beyond the first week of January or it comes southward into the region shortly after the start of 2020. Transient shots of cold would be possible under the former scenario, which currently appears to be somewhat more likely than not through the first week of January. Afterward, the predominant state of the EPO will likely be crucial to the persistence of the cold.

Based on the forecast strongly positive AO to start January, the probability of a significant (6" or greater snowstorm) for the major cities of the Middle Atlantic region during the first week of January is low. Since 1950, the biggest snowfall for that region when the AO was +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period occurred during January 14-15, 1954 when Philadephia received 3.0" snow and New York City picked up 2.0". Boston has had numerous 6" or greater snowstorms during such cases, including one 10" or greater snowstorm. Therefore, the risk of significant snow would likely be greatest over New England assuming this relationship holds (no significant offsetting variables).

Despite the development of a sustained colder than normal temperature regime, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is nearing the end of its warmest year on record. 2019 will likely conclude with a mean temperature of 20.8°. The existing record is 18.9°, which was set in 2016. Currently, 2017 ranks as the second warmest year and 2018 ranks as the fourth warmest year.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -28.39 today. That is the lowest SOI value since November 5 when the SOI was -34.49.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.748.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 4, but some warming above 3 mb will likely commence in coming days. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively muted into the first week of January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold into the start of January on the EPS.

On December 25, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.528 (RMM). The December 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.121.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that December will wind up warmer than normal in New York City with a monthly mean temperature near 38.5°.

[Rjay]

56 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

We agree about the possible day 9-13 cold shot. I believe the modeled idea is legitimate. I am concerned how things might evolve should Atlantic and Pacific blocking fail to develop: namely the risk of a multi-week warm regime. I think we'll get some opportunities for snowfall, but am less certain about the monthly anomaly. I'm looking at a lot of data, but the forecast teleconnections argue that a mild January is not implausible. 

It's likely (unfortunately)

[CIK62]

And for this we have to wait till Jan. 06.      This probably resembles what we currently have as much as you resemble your brother or sister.

The top analog  shown of  a Jan 21 2002 setup---would of course mean curtain time.     That winter after 9/11 did not exist.    Low for the season was 19*, if my memory is accurate.

[203whiteout]

Unfortunately we are currently in the “mild/snowless” period. I believe everything in life is cyclical including weather and I believe things flipped sometime in 2016/2017 and ever since winters are basically non existent in the east with the exception on NNE and green and white mountains. It’s happened before. We will still have stretches of mild winter like in the past and we will also occasionally have very snowy winters and that’s part of the reason it’s so fun to track storms. I’ll tell ya what though the next big storm for the tri state area and coastal NE will be a very welcomed sight, it’s been too long. Hope we can squeeze a big storm out of a crappy pattern/season. I’ve seen it happen plenty of times, 2006 (30”) and  2013 (37”) come to mind, especially over last 15 years. You never know...fingers crossed 

[doncat]

Gonna go 11 straight days with no precip  and still finish the month with over 8"  here if current  guidance holds. Also current temp departure for month is -1.7°.

[WarrenCtyWx]

A lot of those 80s winters were actually pretty cold as well, namely 80-81, 81-82, 83-84, January 1985 and 85-86. Some of the arctic outbreaks during those years were historic, in fact. Yet snowfall was consistently poor to mediocre regardless.

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of December are averaging 47.5degs., or about 13.5degs. AN(a touch of or should I say a torch of Dec. '15).

Month to date is  -0.9[37.3].         December should end near  +1.5[39.0].

48* here at 6am.      50* by 9am.       53* by Noon.       Stayed at 53*+ till after 5pm.       51* at 9pm.

Before the putative change Jan. 06(which is certain to do the El Fado and become Jan. 16 while we wait---or prove not worth the wait) figure on +7 and no snow.

 

[SnoSki14]

51 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

A lot of those 80s winters were actually pretty cold as well, namely 80-81, 81-82, 83-84, January 1985 and 85-86. Some of the arctic outbreaks during those years were historic, in fact. Yet snowfall was consistently poor to mediocre regardless.

I'm hoping we can avoid the cold if it's gonna be snowless. 

So far that looks to be the case. There's a chance some cold gets in 2nd week of January but that's a long ways out and the GFS has consistently been too cold in the LR.

[bluewave]

You know it’s warm when the NYC low of 46 is 6 degrees warmer than the normal high of 40.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

8 hours ago, 203whiteout said:

Unfortunately we are currently in the “mild/snowless” period. I believe everything in life is cyclical including weather and I believe things flipped sometime in 2016/2017 and ever since winters are basically non existent in the east with the exception on NNE and green and white mountains. It’s happened before. We will still have stretches of mild winter like in the past and we will also occasionally have very snowy winters and that’s part of the reason it’s so fun to track storms. I’ll tell ya what though the next big storm for the tri state area and coastal NE will be a very welcomed sight, it’s been too long. Hope we can squeeze a big storm out of a crappy pattern/season. I’ve seen it happen plenty of times, 2006 (30”) and  2013 (37”) come to mind, especially over last 15 years. You never know...fingers crossed 

2017 2018 was well above average for most of this forum with a historic March and April.

[weatherpruf]

9 hours ago, 203whiteout said:

Unfortunately we are currently in the “mild/snowless” period. I believe everything in life is cyclical including weather and I believe things flipped sometime in 2016/2017 and ever since winters are basically non existent in the east with the exception on NNE and green and white mountains. It’s happened before. We will still have stretches of mild winter like in the past and we will also occasionally have very snowy winters and that’s part of the reason it’s so fun to track storms. I’ll tell ya what though the next big storm for the tri state area and coastal NE will be a very welcomed sight, it’s been too long. Hope we can squeeze a big storm out of a crappy pattern/season. I’ve seen it happen plenty of times, 2006 (30”) and  2013 (37”) come to mind, especially over last 15 years. You never know...fingers crossed 

Jan 2016 around here....other than that its been some March storms where I broke the snowblower out just to get it running, as there really is no need to to clean a few inches of snow in March. With rare exceptions ( IMBY ) like March 93, it's going to be gone in a day or two. Sometimes the same day!

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

2017 2018 was well above average for most of this forum with a historic March and April.

It was not for many, many people here as well. One storm delivered 6-8 in March for us, the last one. Even the Jan storm struggled to get above 6 here. It has been years since we've seen more than around 6-8 for even a really good storm here. Now that's fine with me, if they happen a few times. If you're at elevation, different story. But I gotta say, I'm not missing the cold that much. It'll be back.

[Sn0waddict]

36 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Just saw a flock of geese head south that usually results in snow in two weeks. Let’s see if that’s just a myth or not. That means we would get a snow event around January 10th or so! 

Currently 50 degrees and cloudy!

Probably more accurate than looking at the GFS at the very least.

[hudsonvalley21]

8 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Probably more accurate than looking at the GFS at the very least.

Geese For Sure = GFS 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm hoping we can avoid the cold if it's gonna be snowless. 

So far that looks to be the case. There's a chance some cold gets in 2nd week of January but that's a long ways out and the GFS has consistently been too cold in the LR.

The GFS long range phantom cold and blocking bias is glaring, like really bad and has been for several years

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, Rjay said:

It's likely (unfortunately)

I’m also willing to bet that March is a freezer. It’s become a yearly tradition. May be climate change related in the Pacific tropical forcing, with the wavelengths shortening at that time but there is a huge tendency for both November and March to be cold/very cold months the last several years