Brasiluvsnow Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 3 hours ago, psv88 said: We do change the course of rivers, by things called dams...we can bend steel when it is heated to a certain temperature and steel is a human creation, so that makes no sense bud.... For you younger ladies and gents,,,and then back to the weather models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Da fuq 88 ,,,,that is literally NEXT year lol. I hate all theses damn long range models as you know what they are showing now won't be remotely close to what happens on Jan 6th although I would take that in a heartbeat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 You guys gotta be ****ing kidding me. 2 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 As I said yesterday the cold air keeps getting kicked further into the future meaning you are looking at model BS Next 10 days look mild...as could be said for last several days. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 7 hours ago, nycwinter said: we have a politics page keep your political ramblings to that page ... I dont see why this subject has to be political though. Anyway, I hope you all had a nice Christmas 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 20 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: As I said yesterday the cold air keeps getting kicked further into the future meaning you are looking at model BS Next 10 days look mild...as could be said for last several days. Yeah, I saw that The Post had that too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 After a frosty start, much of the region saw temperatures recover to the 40s. The closing days of December will generally be warmer to occasionally much warmer than normal. Based on the latest guidance, the warmth will likely be sufficient to ensure that much of the Middle Atlantic region will wind up somewhat warmer to warmer than normal for December. Through today, New York City's highest temperature this December is 58°, which occurred on December 10. The last December to have a monthly maximum temperature below 60° was December 2005 when the temperature peaked at 55° on December 24. However, the potential exists for the temperature to approach or reach 60° in New York City during the December 28-29 period. Through December 24, monthly anomalies for select cities were: Baltimore: +0.7°, Boston: +0.2°, Islip: -0.6°, New York City: -1.5°, Newark: -1.2°, Philadelphia: -0.6°, and Washington, DC: 0.0°. Colder air could return during the first week of January. The progression of the MJO in concert with the teleconnections could be crucial in determining whether most of North America's cold air stays bottled up north of the Canada-U.S. border beyond the first week of January or it comes southward into the region shortly after the start of 2020. Transient shots of cold would be possible under the former scenario, which currently appears to be somewhat more likely than not through the first week of January. Afterward, the predominant state of the EPO will likely be crucial to the persistence of the cold. Despite the development of a sustained colder than normal temperature regime, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is nearing the end of its warmest year on record. 2019 will likely conclude with a mean temperature of 20.8°. The existing record is 18.9°, which was set in 2016. Currently, 2017 ranks as the second warmest year and 2018 ranks as the fourth warmest year. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -27.97 today. That is the lowest SOI value since November 5 when the SOI was -34.49. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.097. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 3, but some warming above 3 mb is possible near the end of December. Wave 2 activity will be muted as December concludes and January begins. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold into the start of January on the EPS. On December 24, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.124 (RMM). The December 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.923. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that December will wind up warmer than normal in New York City with a monthly mean temperature near 38.5°. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 The last 6 days of December are averaging 46.5degs., or about 12.5degs. AN. Month to date is -1.2[37.1]. December should end near +1.4[38.9]. 41* here at 6am. 40* by 8am. 47* by Noon. All the models look like horror shows for their durations. Let's start a contest to see which one has the fewest under 32* days or the most over 50* ones. Time to admit the SW Event not in our favor. The first 5-Day period with a BN average T is centered on Jan. 08, and looks more like the PV sticking its tongue out at us, as the core of it flies by to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 29° currently...Above normal high temps last few days but near average night time lows. Been dry for over a week now....still at 6.80" for month and with rain coming by Sunday late, should still finish as high as 8" for month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 16 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Science absolutely helps drive public policy, and in a big way. From anti-smoking campaigns to the food pyramid to exercise recommendations and the dangers of mercury and lead paint, science drives public policy. Problem is, public policy is often too slow to implement changes in a timely fashion. For example, we know teenagers need more sleep than others, and have known this for a long time. Yet schools are only now realizing they should be starting the school day later. We also know that feeding children in school improves outcomes. Yet policy makers argue about this....absolutely no disrespect intended here, you are highly regarded for good reason in these parts. We still haven’t solved the scaling up problem. That why I agree we need much more research. Even in countries like Germany where they take the subject seriously, their energy transition has stalled out. This is a much more challenging issue than any of the topics that you mentioned. Those are simple compared to climate change. That’s why it looks like our default position will be business as usual and doing the best we can to adapt. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/ https://e360.yale.edu/features/carbon-crossroads-can-germany-revive-its-stalled-energy-transition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 27F at 600 am Even with the warm air, continue to rack up the nights below freezing count outside the concrete jungle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Pretty big cold departure shrink in the last 4 days. ............25th...21st EWR....-1.0....-2.1 NYC....-1.2.....-2.7 LGA....-1.2.....-2.5 JFK.....-1.4.....-2.5 ISP......-0.5....-1.4 BDR....-0.9....-2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Soi : -28.39 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: The last 6 days of December are averaging 46.5degs., or about 12.5degs. AN. Month to date is -1.2[37.1]. December should end near +1.4[38.9]. 41* here at 6am. 40* by 8am. All the models look like horror shows for their durations. Let's start a contest to see which one has the fewest under 32* days or the most over 50* ones. Time to admit the SW Event not in our favor. The first 5-Day period with a BN average T is centered on Jan. 08, and looks more like the PV sticking its tongue out at us, as the core of it flies by to the north. The warm weather is not a horror show, I just wish it didn't rain. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Chicago went from record snow on Halloween to record warmth around Christmas. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 Very bleak for snow lovers like myself. Hopefully the second half of January brings us some heavy snow! Currently humid with a temperature of 39 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 20 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Very bleak for snow lovers like myself. Hopefully the second half of January brings us some heavy snow! Currently humid with a temperature of 39 degrees. Models dont look bad moving forward 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: We still haven’t solved the scaling up problem. That why I agree we need much more research. Even in countries like Germany where they take the subject seriously, their energy transition has stalled out. This is a much more challenging issue than any of the topics that you mentioned. Those are simple compared to climate change. That’s why it looks like our default position will be business as usual and doing the best we can to adapt. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/ https://e360.yale.edu/features/carbon-crossroads-can-germany-revive-its-stalled-energy-transition Hard to disagree, but in truth rather depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 45 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Very bleak for snow lovers like myself. Hopefully the second half of January brings us some heavy snow! Currently humid with a temperature of 39 degrees. I'm sure something will pop up, just hope it isn't a nearly 3 month wait between snows like last year. Overall in terms of snow last year was close to a stinker IMBY, as was the year before. However, a blockbuster winter is probably not likely. We'll know more in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Models dont look bad moving forward How much forward Anthony? I've come to suspect any models that keep pushing the cold 6-10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: How much forward Anthony? I've come to suspect any models that keep pushing the cold 6-10 days away. The 1st week will be mild. The 2nd week and forward are still in question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: How much forward Anthony? I've come to suspect any models that keep pushing the cold 6-10 days away. The pattern is more of a bad 70s/80s pattern than a 90s/2000s shutout all out torch. Something may pop at anytime in the next 15 days that produces snow where as we were totally hopeless for large portions of winters the last 20-25 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Day 11-15 models have been underestimating the influence of the SE ridge and WAR the last few years. Like we saw this week, the ridge verified much stronger than the old long range forecasts. This has created the week 2 favorable looking pattern that keeps getting pushed back. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 I hope all of you had a very nice Holiday , I just wanted to recap where we have been , where we are and where we may go. 1st Nov 1 - Dec 20 was well BN in the east. The 1 to 2 week warmup has been one the models have seen for a while now and AN December based on a back end warm up was seen back on Nov 10th. The question is does the MJO get into 7/8 in Jan , I believe it does. I would be careful using the RIMM plots as they like to chase convection. We look to be getting into p7/8 by week 2 with the TPV spreading out of the Canadian Prairies into the N/E How long does that last ? It will depend on how much ridging can force itself into Alaska and attempt to displace the TPV to the east of the Rockies. I like a BN regime to return some time during the 1st week in Jan. The question is will it hold or is it in and out after 5 days ? Does the trough just settle down the Rockies once again ? That part is up for debate. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, PB-99 said: I hope all of you had a very nice Holiday , I just wanted to recap where we have been , where we are and where we may go. 1st Nov 1 - Dec 20 was well BN in the east. The 1 to 2 week warmup has been one the models have seen for a while now and AN December based on a back end warm up was seen back on Nov 10th. The question is does the MJO get into 7/8 in Jan , I believe it does. I would be careful using the RIMM plots as they like to chase convection. We look to be getting into p7/8 by week 2 with the TPV spreading out of the Canadian Prairies into the N/E It will depend on how much ridging can force itself into Alaska and attempt to displace the TPV to the east of the Rockies. I like a BN regime to return some time during the 1st week in Jan. The question is will it hold ? or is it in and out after 5 days, settling the trough down the Rockies once again. That part is up for debate. Thanks for the breakdown. Always appreciated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 A fitting end to the year of feast or famine precip in the interior: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 CFSv2 is flipping to AN as Dec. ends: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 What a beautiful next few days to take down my Christmas lawn decorations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Gfs is cold and active after next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 New GFS starting on Dec 31, 2-3 snow chances and generally near normal for 1st week and well below after the 6th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now