December 2019

[bluewave]

CWG did a nice story on this a few weeks back.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/12/16/winter-holidays-are-warming-rapidly-mid-atlantic-northeast/

The winter holidays are warming rapidly in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

 

The week leading up to Christmas is warming twice as fast as the rest of the winter in many East Coast cities.

 

[CIK62]

Beware of model output for the next two months because I think that we have entered that "Mondo Bizzarro" period where late in a computer run the full realm of winter weather around here might be shown.       Like the previous GFS output  having a day in the 50's, a single digit day, and possible big snows, crammed together.

I got a kick out of that  -28C 850mb on Jan 06, which if real, must be in the Top Ten such around here.

Prior to the above mayhem, all three models seem to have a potential 60-degree day, before the year ends.

[donsutherland1]

Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures across the region have reached the upper 40s and even lower 50s as of 1 pm. High temperatures through 1 pm include:

Bridgeport: 50°
Islip: 47°
New York City: 47°
Newark: 49°
Philadelphia: 51°

[doncat]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

CWG did a nice story on this a few weeks back.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/12/16/winter-holidays-are-warming-rapidly-mid-atlantic-northeast/

The winter holidays are warming rapidly in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

 

The week leading up to Christmas is warming twice as fast as the rest of the winter in many East Coast cities.

 

What a non story....The headline above says it all...Are  they saying that the Christmas  week is warming  more because of a meteorological reason? Just a fluke...Consider the source.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, doncat said:

What a non story....The headline above says it all...Are  they saying that the Christmas  week is warming  more because of a meteorological reason? Just a fluke...Consider the source.

What does consider the source mean? This holiday week warming is a widespread story. It’s not just localized to a small area. 

[the_other_guy]

That one week warming faster than the rest?

That’s a great data point but there can’t be any scientific reason behind it beyond overall Climate Change

There does seem to be something to Sept and Dec warmth though.

 

 

 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

That one week warming faster than the rest?

That’s a great data point but there can’t be any scientific reason behind it beyond overall Climate Change

There does seem to be something to Sept and Dec warmth though.

We know that warming can be an uneven process. But this late month warmth is an interesting feature. You would think that the warmest temperatures for NYC would occur earlier in the month. The average NYC high on 12-1 is 48 and 39 on 12-31. NYC had 5 years from 2011 to 2018 with the monthly highest temperature occurring between the 21st and 31st. It used to be uncommon for NYC to have its warmest December temperature beyond the middle of the month.

NYC highest December temperature dates after the 20th

12-21-18....61

12-27-16....60

12-24-15....72

12-22-13.....71

12-21-11.....62    tie with earlier dates
 

 

 

 

 

 

[uncle W]

the heat islands have expanded everywhere...especially airports...I was ten degrees colder than Central Park...I'm closer to the water and only 45ft above sea level...

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

the heat islands have expanded everywhere...especially airports...I was ten degrees colder than Central Park...I'm closer to the water and only 45ft above sea level...

But the rural, suburban, and urban temperature departures are similar. 

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But the rural, suburban, and urban temperature departures are similar. 

Over the last few years, regardless of ENSO state, there is been a strong tendency for both November and March to be colder to much colder than normal on the east coast, maybe just coincidence?

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Over the last few years, regardless of ENSO state, there is been a strong tendency for both November and March to be colder to much colder than normal on the east coast, maybe just coincidence?

November and March have been our only reliable cold departure months in a sea of annual warmth. Notice how they have had a similar departure relationship. Maybe some aspect of the background forcing state  is behind this unusual pairing? The only year this decade the relationship didn’t work was 16-17. The years that they were both warm like 09-10, 11-12, and 15-16 were among the warmest on record.

NYC

Season...Nov....Mar

19-20.....-3.8

18-19.....-3.3.....-0.9

17-18.....-1.1.....-2.4

16-17.....+2.1....-3.3

15-16.....+5.1....+6.4

14-15.....-2.4.....-4.4

13-14.....-2.4......-4.8

12-13.....-3.8......-2.4

 11-12....+4.2.....+8.4

10-11.....+0.2.....-0.2

 09-10....+3.4.....+5.7

[sussexcountyobs]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

the heat islands have expanded everywhere...especially airports...I was ten degrees colder than Central Park...I'm closer to the water and only 45ft above sea level...

Hmm? Why would airports register warmer than surrounding areas? Could it be all the paved and concrete surfaces were the thermometers are? And rural areas are not seeing warmer temperatures out of the norm. Kids were playing hockey on the lake Saturday. The snow cover didn't melt till today. There's still some left in shady areas. Seems pretty normal to me.

[weatherpruf]

4 hours ago, doncat said:

What a non story....The headline above says it all...Are  they saying that the Christmas  week is warming  more because of a meteorological reason? Just a fluke...Consider the source.

No, the writer says they can't be sure without more study. And that's the case. But I think we all suspect climate change has a lot to do with it. It would have been nice for the reporter to ask a few climatologists to weigh in. But they probably would have said the same thing, we can't know for sure etc. Still, you quote the experts....that's what I learned in journalism.

[sussexcountyobs]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

No, the writer says they can't be sure without more study. And that's the case. But I think we all suspect climate change has a lot to do with it. It would have been nice for the reporter to ask a few climatologists to weigh in. But they probably would have said the same thing, we can't know for sure etc. Still, you quote the experts....that's what I learned in journalism.

Ahh. Climate change. Historically there is on about an 11-12% chance of a white Christmas in NYC at Central Park. That's every 10 -12 years. Must be my pickup truck and lawnmower causing this warming? Can you tell me what the temps in late December in our area were 5,297 years ago?

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Hmm? Why would airports register warmer than surrounding areas? Could it be all the paved and concrete surfaces were the thermometers are? And rural areas are not seeing warmer temperatures out of the norm. Kids were playing hockey on the lake Saturday. The snow cover didn't melt till today. There's still some left in shady areas. Seems pretty normal to me.

Temperatures in rural NJ are rising at the same rate as NYC.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-america/

New Jersey may seem an unlikely place to measure climate change, but it is one of the fastest-warming states in the nation. Its average temperature has climbed by close to 2 degrees Celsius since 1895 — double the average for the Lower 48 states.

[sussexcountyobs]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Temperatures in rural NJ are rising at the same rate as NYC.

If those temperatures are right? And I'll say say for sake of arguement they are. Temps over a 113 yr time spand mean nothing over the age of the Earth. It's a blip in time. Its meaningless if anyone is going to talk about MAN made climate change. Man made climate change is a hoax. Again, what was the temperature here in the NYC area 5,000 years ago? No one answers, and no one knows? Even if you did, 5,000 yrs is still just a blip in time compared to how old the Earth  is. Earth has been fried and frozen many times over, and our extremely short life spans in the scheme of things make it almost impossible to realize that.

[donsutherland1]

Another day of abundant sunshine saw temperatures reach the upper 40s and even lower 50s across the region. Tomorrow will likely be a little cooler, but readings should still be above seasonal norms.

The closing days of December will generally be warmer to occasionally much warmer than normal. Based on the latest guidance, the warmth will likely be sufficient to ensure that much of the Middle Atlantic region will wind up somewhat warmer to warmer than normal for December.

Through today, New York City's highest temperature this December is 58°, which occurred on December 10. The last December to have a monthly maximum temperature below 60° was December 2005 when the temperature peaked at 55° on December 24. However, the potential exists for the temperature to approach or reach 60° in New York City during the December 28-29 period.

Through December 23, monthly anomalies for select cities were:

Baltimore: +0.5°, Boston: +0.1°, Islip: -0.8°, New York City: -1.8°, Newark: -1.5°, Philadelphia: -1.0°, and Washington, DC: -0.2°.

Colder air could return during the first week of January. The progression of the MJO in concert with the teleconnections could be crucial in determining whether most of North America's cold air stays bottled up north of the Canada-U.S. border beyond the first week of January or it comes southward into the region shortly after the start of 2020. Transient shots of cold would be possible under the former scenario, which currently appears to be somewhat more likely than not through the first week of January. Afterward, the predominant state of the EPO will likely be crucial to the persistence of the cold.

Despite the development of a sustained colder than normal temperature regime, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is nearing the end of its warmest year on record. 2019 will likely conclude with a mean temperature of 20.8°. The existing record is 18.9°, which was set in 2016. Currently, 2017 ranks as the second warmest year and 2018 ranks as the fourth warmest year.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -21.64 today. That was the lowest figure since November 19 when the SOI was -27.36.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.799.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 1, but some warming above 3 mb is possible near the end of December. Wave 2 activity will be muted as December nears an end. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold into the start of January on the EPS.

On December 23, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.928 (RMM). The December 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.568.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that December will wind up warmer than normal in New York City with a monthly mean temperature near 38.3°.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

If those temperatures are right? And I'll say say for sake of arguement they are. Temps over a 113 yr time spand mean nothing over the age of the Earth. It's a blip in time. Its meaningless if anyone is going to talk about MAN made climate change. Man made climate change is a hoax. Again, what was the temperature here in the NYC area 5,000 years ago? No one answers, and no one knows? Even if you did, 5,000 yrs is still just a blip in time compared to how old the Earth  is. Earth has been fried and frozen many times over, and our extremely short life spans in the scheme of things make it almost impossible to realize that.

The  temperature rise is extremely rapid for such a short period of time. Calling science a hoax is never a good idea. That kind of world outlook is straight out of the dark ages.

[etudiant]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

If those temperatures are right? And I'll say say for sake of arguement they are. Temps over a 113 yr time spand mean nothing over the age of the Earth. It's a blip in time. Its meaningless if anyone is going to talk about MAN made climate change. Man made climate change is a hoax. 

Man has surely changed the climate, it is just not plausible that the massive changes we have implemented on the earth's surface and the associated biosphere would not impact the heat flows. There is argument about how much change,  whether that change is reversible and what are the relevant time frames, but just calling it a hoax is unlikely to convince anyone.

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, bluewave said:

That temperature rise is extremely rapid for such a short period of time. Calling science a hoax is never a good idea.

I do not call science a hoax. Don't twist words. I called man made climate change a hoax. And again, 113 yrs is a very , very short time period to talk about global temperatures. 100, or 1,000 yrs is a blip on the Earth's clock.

[bluewave]

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

I do not call science a hoax. Don't twist words. I called man made climate change a hoax. And again, 113 yrs is a very , very short time period to talk about global temperatures. 100, or 1,000 yrs is a blip on the Earth's clock.

Yes you did. Go back and see how life was before the scientific revolution. 

[sussexcountyobs]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yes you did. Go back and see how life was before the scientific revolution. 

Really? I read my post again. I said man made climate change is a hoax.

What did you read? Again .What was the temperature around NYC area 1,2,3,4 thousand years ago? The silence is defeaning. 

[bluewave]

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

Really? I read my post again. I said man made climate change is a hoax.

What did you read? Again .What was the temperature around NYC area 1,2,3,4 thousand years ago? The silence is defeaning. 

You don’t get to pick and choose which scientific fields you think are hoax. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, bluewave said:

You don’t get to pick and choose which scientific fields you think are hoax. 

Again. Not saying any science is a hoax. And AGAIN. What were the global temps around here 200, 300, 400, 500, 800, years ago?

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Again. Not saying any science is a hoax. And AGAIN. What were the global temps around here 200, 300, 400, 500, 800, years ago?

All that information has been posted in the climate change forum. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, bluewave said:

All that information has been posted in the climate change forum. 

Really???? So in 1712, what was the average Temperature in NYC for December?

[sussexcountyobs]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All that information has been posted in the climate change forum. 

No hard feelings bro. Want to wish you, and all your family a very Merry Christmas. 

[wishcast_hater]

14 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Really???? So in 1712, what was the average Temperature in NYC for December?

Your not gonna win against those who believe the hoax is real. Science doesn’t lie but scientists do and people can’t understand that they will cherry pick and bend the results to fit the agenda. Provide government money to show climate change is a hoax and watch how fast people change  there tune. 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said:

Your not gonna win against those who believe the hoax is real. Science doesn’t lie but scientists do and people can’t understand that they will cherry pick and bend the results to fit the agenda. Provide government money to show climate change is a hoax and watch how fast people change  there tune. 

MERRY CHRISTMAS brother.

[donsutherland1]

Some global climate data (though this really should be in the climate change forum):

10 Warmest Years (1880-Present) on GISS (ranked):

1. 2016
2. 2019 (all but certain)
3. 2017
4. 2015
5. 2018
6. 2014
7. 2010
8. 2013
9. 2005
10. 2007

5 Warmest Decades on GISS (ranked):

1. 2010-19 +0.8°C anomaly (December 2019 data is not yet in)
2. 2000-09 +0.6°C anomaly
3. 1990-99
4. 1980-89
5. 1940-49

This data clearly bears the marks of a warming climate. Absent warming, such outcomes would be all but improbable. Yet, natural forcings have not changed sufficiently to explain such warming.

Total Solar Irradiance:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/atmospheric/total-solar-irradiance

Global Temperature Trend (when solar, ENSO, and volcanic influence have been removed):

Paper: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022

Additional information from NASA: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/