December 2019

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

With the 0.7 inches of snow in Central Park yesterday, NYC only needs 15.2 inches of snow between now and Dec 31 2020 for the new 30 year averages calculated in January 2021 to be 30 inches per season.

One MECS away, or several nickel and dime events, like for example this December in the city.

[SnowGoose69]

The next week is a good example of how even when the Pac sucks if the AO and NAO are negative it’s fairly hard to have an all out torch pattern in the East because you can’t set up a long term SE ridge unless your NAO is very east based 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The next week is a good example of how even when the Pac sucks if the AO and NAO are negative it’s fairly hard to have an all out torch pattern in the East because you can’t set up a long term SE ridge unless your NAO is very east based 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

With the 0.7 inches of snow in Central Park yesterday, NYC only needs 15.2 inches of snow between now and Dec 31 2020 for the new 30 year averages calculated in January 2021 to be 30 inches per season.

One MECS away, or several nickel and dime events, like for example this December in the city.

NYC also has a shot at March surpassing December for average snowfall. 
 

1991-2019 NYC average monthly snowfall.

December.....4.9

March............5.1

[NycStormChaser]

16 degrees this morning in Midtown Manhattan

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That’s definitely a wait and see type forecast. Phases 6 and 7 can be a borderline between mild and cold this time of year. A slight shift in the WP forcing can make a big difference.

 

 

BlueWave I am not sure if you want to  or if someone else can but speaking for myself ( and I am sure many others lurking have the same questions) but can someone explain the 500 hpa geographical heights that  I / we are looking at ? I get the MJO index and can follow what you guys are talking about with that but when you guys post the above I get lost as I do not know what exactly you guys are showing me / us novices ? Can someone explain it simply if thats possible ? Thanks in advance

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

57 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

With the 0.7 inches of snow in Central Park yesterday, NYC only needs 15.2 inches of snow between now and Dec 31 2020 for the new 30 year averages calculated in January 2021 to be 30 inches per season.

One MECS away, or several nickel and dime events, like for example this December in the city.

 

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC also has a shot at March surpassing December for average snowfall. 
 

1991-2019 NYC average monthly snowfall.

December.....4.9

March............5.1

Excellent point and driven in most part by the last 5  seasons where March has seen 51.2 inches of snow in Central Park, and December a paltry 11.9 inches.

[rgwp96]

14 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

@rgwp96 any idea what we got?  Been a very cold/windy evening with a couple squalls.  I think it's about .50" maybe.

Yea that’s what I had , thought it would be more since it snowed on and off all night but never added up to  much more than that lol. 

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Take some pix

That means going outside and it's cold out there man  Those pics rarely turn out good anyway so I don't bother.

44 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hmm, that PNA shot looks like a solid potential for a NYE storm.

[NYCweatherNOW]

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

That means going outside and it's cold out there man  Those pics rarely turn out good anyway so I don't bother.

Hmm, that PNA shot looks like a solid potential for a NYE storm.

It’s really brutal today!!!

[gravitylover]

1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

It’s really brutal today!!!

Yeah 17/9/SSE8 with gusts to 13 is pretty unpleasant.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

 

Excellent point and driven in most part by the last 5  seasons where March has seen 51.2 inches of snow in Central Park, and December a paltry 11.9 inches.

Yeah, 4 out of the last 5 years with March being the snowiest month was more like the Rockies and Plains. Welcome to the 2010’s.

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
2014-2015	0.0	0.2	1.0	16.9	13.6	18.6	0.0	50.3
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	27.9	4.0	0.9	T	32.8
2016-2017	0.0	T	3.2	7.9	9.4	9.7	0.0	30.2
2017-2018	0.0	T	7.7	11.2	4.9	11.6	5.5	40.9
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	1.1	2.6	10.4	0.0	20.5

 

[JerseyWx]

53 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

Yea that’s what I had , thought it would be more since it snowed on and off all night but never added up to  much more than that lol. 

Yeah yesterday was a lot "snowier" than I thought it would be, but not much out of it.  Next week looks to moderate.

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah yesterday was a lot "snowier" than I thought it would be, but not much out of it.  Next week looks to moderate.

Next week is going to be our Indian summer lol.

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah yesterday was a lot "snowier" than I thought it would be, but not much out of it.  Next week looks to moderate.

that was my best snow squall EVER, it snowed at varying rates for 7 hours, from 4 PM to 11 PM and all the roads here were snow covered multiple times!

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 4 out of the last 5 years with March being the snowiest month was more like the Rockies and Plains. Welcome to the 2010’s.

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
2014-2015	0.0	0.2	1.0	16.9	13.6	18.6	0.0	50.3
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	27.9	4.0	0.9	T	32.8
2016-2017	0.0	T	3.2	7.9	9.4	9.7	0.0	30.2
2017-2018	0.0	T	7.7	11.2	4.9	11.6	5.5	40.9
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	1.1	2.6	10.4	0.0	20.5

 

out of all those winters, the only one that was really good was 2014-15

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

With the 0.7 inches of snow in Central Park yesterday, NYC only needs 15.2 inches of snow between now and Dec 31 2020 for the new 30 year averages calculated in January 2021 to be 30 inches per season.

One MECS away, or several nickel and dime events, like for example this December in the city.

this is mostly accounting though, as I would include 2009-10 as part of the current decade.

and I would consider 15.2 inches an HECS lol, MECS is like 8-12 inches.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

February 9, 2017

There was 9.4 inches in the city most of which fell in a six hour period.

I thought it was in January, the one where we had like 6 hours of true blizzard conditions during the day?  A smaller version of the January 2016 blizzard.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Received .75 yesterday 

2 really nice squalls

 

Got about an inch here, the roads were snow covered several times and it snowed at varying rates between 4 PM and 11 PM.  Had lots of blowing snow too!

Wasn't there a local area spotter total posted?

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

The 1.0” of snow at EWR yesterday tied the record for the date. lol

Visible satellite is telling this morning. It’ll be interesting to see if the sun melts any of the snow streaks in the region later today. 

That was 7 hours of snow here!  Roads were snow covered, easily my best snow squall event ever!

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, lee59 said:

Wow, I guess you hit the jackpot.  About a 1/4 inch here with two squalls passing thru.

We had around an inch here in SW Nassau too, 7 hours of snow *4PM-11PM* and roads were snow-covered for most of the night!

 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, psv88 said:

this year we had 5 min of heavy snow and maybe 1/4", last year was 15 min of blitz and like an inch

lol it snowed for 7 hours here

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

Similar theme to late last January and early February. Snow squall followed by short Arctic outbreak and temperature rebound. But the squall this time was less intense. The temperatures won’t be as low or high.

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Snowfall
2019-01-30	35	6	0.4
2019-01-31	16	2	0.0
2019-02-01	21	11	0.0
2019-02-02	34	16	0.0
2019-02-03	53	33	0.0
2019-02-04	61	41	0.0
2019-02-05	65	44	0.0

 

I thought this one was a lot stronger, more widespread and definitely lasted MUCH longer.

No surprise- it's December, when the lakes are the warmest.

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Agree with the other LI locals.  This was nice but didn't hold a candle to the one last January 30:

 

 

I dont know Ed, this was my best snow squall event I've ever witnessed in the over 30 years that I remember them.

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

It got heavy here in SW Suffolk for a few minutes. Just enough to coat the ground. But it didn’t reach the intensity of the snow squall last January.

last year's was puny here, with this one all the roads were snow covered and it was snowing hard most of the evening!

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, jm1220 said:

And that’s that. Sun is already back out. Nice coating on the ground, about what last year’s had. 

you would have liked it in Long Beach ;-)

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Nice, looks like more then the uws. About .25-.5” here 

thats what it looked like here, except whenever a new snow squall pushed through those tracks got covered up again.  We had like half a dozen different snow squalls between 4 PM and 11 PM, each lasted about 20-30 minutes with a ton of wind and lots of blowing snow too.

 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

last year's was puny here, with this one all the roads were snow covered and it was snowing hard most of the evening!

These snow squalls are very location specific like summer thunderstorms. Last January for me was more extreme with stronger winds and lower visibility. So I guess you were in a better spot for this one than me. But it’s interesting how we got two such potent events this close together in time. Must be a product of the fast Pacific flow and rapid 500 mb wavelength changes. Notice how last year also had short the Arctic outbreak and temperature moderation a few days later. But the lows and highs over the next week will be less extreme. Another version of 2010’s repeating weather patterns.

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Snowfall
2019-01-30	35	6	0.4
2019-01-31	16	2	0.0
2019-02-01	21	11	0.0
2019-02-02	34	16	0.0
2019-02-03	53	33	0.0
2019-02-04	61	41	0.0
2019-02-05	65	44	0.0

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this is mostly accounting though, as I would include 2009-10 as part of the current decade.

and I would consider 15.2 inches an HECS lol, MECS is like 8-12 inches.

 

 

I would disagree with that.

A 15.2 inch storm would tie for 20th place on NYC's list of greatest snow storms. To me an HECS, with the emphasis on the H for historic,  would have to be a top 5 storm which in NYC's case would be 21.0 or more inches to break the top 5.

But hey to each his own.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I would disagree with that.

A 15.2 inch storm would tie for 20th place on NYC's list of greatest snow storms. To me an HECS, with the emphasis on the H for historic,  would have to be a top 5 storm which in NYC's case would be 21.0 or more inches to break the top 5.

But hey to each his own.

ah I understand where you're coming from, but that bar keeps moving because of the overabundance of big storms we've had in the last couple of decades.

The reason why I keep a lower bar for Central Park is because they typically undermeasure in these scenarios- as an example, Feb 1961 was only 15 inches at Central Park, but over 24 inches at JFK.

If you set the bar at 21.0 then Jan 1996 is no longer a HECS and neither is PD2; do you see what I mean?  Not to mention that Feb 1978 and Feb 1983 are also taken off the list.  And so is Boxing Day 2010!

If you want to change it to NYC or one of the local airports hitting 18 inches (including rounding up), that seems more reasonable.