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December 2019


NYCweatherNOW
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20 minutes ago, ThatHurricane said:

Yep, snow had a second coming in Upper Manhattan. Approaching 0.5”. Sticking on roads and sidewalks, even parts of Broadway.

Yeah snow shower here now too and sticking to pavement, unlike the more dramatic snow squall

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An Arctic front moved across the region this afternoon triggering snow showers and even snow squalls that coated the ground in places.

Following the frontal passage, parts of the region will likely experience their lowest temperatures so far this season. New York City will likely see the temperature fall into the middle or upper teens tomorrow morning with a high temperature only in the middle and perhaps upper 20s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -7.94 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.376.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through December 27, but some warming above 3 mb could develop near the end of the forecast period. Moderate Wave 2 activity could occur after December 20, likely leading to some upper stratospheric warming. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold into the middle of the fourth week of December on the EPS.

On December 17, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.770 (RMM). The December 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.850.

For the December 20-27 period overall, the temperature in such cities as Washington, Philadelphia, and New York will likely average above normal despite the cold start to the period. There is a chance that colder air could return near the end of December or the beginning of January.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that December will wind up colder than normal in New York City.

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3 hours ago, Cfa said:

 

Nothing has been able to match the 12/24/13 snow squall for me. Dropped roughly 5 inches in about 40 minutes on the night before Christmas. Honestly my favorite snow event.

Maybe 10 miles from you (maybe) and we had 0.5" on 12/24/13.  It's hard to be in the bullseye for those "big" little mesoscale events.  </end oxymoron>

 

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