the_other_guy Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 4 hours ago, binbisso said: Today Scattered snow showers, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. West wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tonight Scattered snow showers, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 15. Wind chill values between zero and 10. Northwest wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 28. Wind chill values between zero and 10. Northwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 22. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 24. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Monday Sunny, with a high near 47. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. I would really love to know where you get your data from I have to assume that you pick the warmest guidance and post it here. If you take the average of the official National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 days it's slightly under 32 degrees which is about 4 degrees below normal which means we will be -1.9 through the 24th of December. Consequently we will have to finish the last 7 days averaging + 7 just to get to normal. The probability of that happening is highly unlikely. December will finish with a negative departure. You are not the first, nor the last to question these posts. The poster never responds. Enjoy your -0.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: You are not the first, nor the last to question these posts. The poster never responds. Enjoy your -0.5F Yeah I mean the next four days are averaging about -9. This is no in and out arctic cold snap. That's a 10 40 mb High sitting over us through Tuesday before the next cold front comes in obviously the air mass is going to modify but not make up those departures to make it close to normal for the next 8 days. It's just like the post up above that shows the GFS MOS for 6z showing 53° for Christmas Eve. that's irresponsible when the euro is 15 degrees colder for the same day.but everybody likes to Cherry pic so it's hard to get accurate information. The fact is we finally got December to be a winter month. By Saturday most of the subforum is -2 to -3 in departures and half the subforum is above normal in snowfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: EURO is colder on Christmas, but real fun starts later into Jan. GFS looks like it is climbing a ladder T-wise after tomorrow. Let's not forget the EURO did have a run last [Thurs. AM] week where it showed a low of 4 and a high of 7 for the 22nd, I believe. The next run was 30 degrees higher here and 50 degrees higher upstate, where the major negative anomaly was located. It is a mortal model like the others. CIK---> Mortal ??????? It should be logical and make sense but not this = “The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one.” “Computers make excellent and efficient servants, but I have no wish to serve under them.” “In critical moments, men sometimes see exactly what they wish to see.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 4 hours ago, binbisso said: Today Scattered snow showers, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. West wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tonight Scattered snow showers, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 15. Wind chill values between zero and 10. Northwest wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 28. Wind chill values between zero and 10. Northwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 22. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 24. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Monday Sunny, with a high near 47. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. I would really love to know where you get your data from I have to assume that you pick the warmest guidance and post it here. If you take the average of the official National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 days it's slightly under 32 degrees which is about 4 degrees below normal which means we will be -1.9 through the 24th of December. Consequently we will have to finish the last 7 days averaging + 7 just to get to normal. The probability of that happening is highly unlikely. December will finish with a negative departure. It's also worth remembering what the average high temperature is in December. Those terrifying +10 departures on some models are still in the mid-40s. That's relatively a torch, but it certainly doesn't feel unseasonably warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 2 hours ago, binbisso said: Yeah I mean the next four days are averaging about -9. This is no in and out arctic cold snap. That's a 10 40 mb High sitting over us through Tuesday before the next cold front comes in obviously the air mass is going to modify but not make up those departures to make it close to normal for the next 8 days. It's just like the post up above that shows the GFS MOS for 6z showing 53° for Christmas Eve. that's irresponsible when the euro is 15 degrees colder for the same day.but everybody likes to Cherry pic so it's hard to get accurate information. The fact is we finally got December to be a winter month. By Saturday most of the subforum is -2 to -3 in departures and half the subforum is above normal in snowfall At least get your facts straight if you are going to be posting comments like that. The Euro isn’t 15 degrees colder than the GFS MOS on Christmas Eve. The 23rd and 24th high temperatures are similar to the GFS MOS. We’ll just have to wait and see how close the forecasts come to the actual high temperatures on those days. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/18/2019 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25 CLIMO X/N 37| 17 25| 21 34| 26 36| 31 45| 36 51| 44 53| 38 46 28 41 TMP 29| 18 24| 23 32| 27 35| 33 43| 38 48| 45 48| 39 43 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Nam has some squalls for NYC later 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 oops got my days mixed up. Should have been xmas day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Why does it feel like the days leading up to Christmas are almost always mild lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: That’s a statement about how common +10 or higher departure days have become this time of year. I guess the departures need to be in the +15 to +30 range to be more memorable. NYC 2011-12-21 62 42 52.0 16.2 2012-12-21 56 36 46.0 10.2 2013-12-22 71 61 66.0 30.5 2014-12-25 62 44 53.0 18.2 2015-12-24 72 63 67.5 32.5 2016-12-27 60 40 50.0 15.7 2017-12-19 55 45 50.0 13.7 2018-12-21 61 47 54.0 18.2 Plus ten is memorable to me. The old bones that keep me going tell me so. As always .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Nam has some squalls for NYC later This has been showing up consistently for a few days with steep lapse rates progged for this afternoon/evening. PW isn't great, but these may make it to the coast. SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS BINGHAMTON NY 1239 PM EST WED DEC 18 2019 NYC105-PAC069-115-127-181812- /O.CON.KBGM.SQ.W.0018.000000T0000Z-191218T1800Z/ 1239 PM EST WED DEC 18 2019 Sullivan County NY-Lackawanna County PA-Susquehanna County PA-Wayne County PA- ...A SNOW SQUALL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST FOR NORTHWESTERN SULLIVAN...SOUTHEASTERN SUSQUEHANNA...NORTHEASTERN LACKAWANNA AND CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTIES... At 1239 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from near Roscoe to near Pleasant Mount to Lenoxville, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts up to 30 mph. SOURCE...Radar and webcams. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. This includes the following highway exits... Interstate 86/Route 17 between 94 and 101. Pennsylvania Interstate 81 between 201 and 206. Locations impacted include... Rockland, Carbondale, Archbald, Honesdale, Liberty, Bethel, Damascus, Neversink, Callicoon and Clifford. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Reduce your speed and turn on headlights! During snow squalls, the visibility may suddenly drop to near zero in whiteout conditions. Wet roadways will quickly freeze. Black ice will cause roads, bridges and overpasses to become slick and dangerous. Slow down and be prepared for sudden loss of traction. LAT...LON 4170 7479 4152 7556 4161 7574 4164 7572 4164 7580 4166 7582 4175 7537 4196 7492 4185 7458 4170 7479 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Light snow in Bridgeport. The entire landscape here was covered in ice this morning, very stark difference from NYC/Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Flurries invaded Linden NJ around noontime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 The models do show the squall over NEPA holding together down to the coast later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 18 minutes ago, Cfa said: Light snow in Bridgeport. The entire landscape here was covered in ice this morning, very stark difference from NYC/Long Island. There are cars here on the uws entombed in ice. Pretty cool to see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Alot of trees here still holding ice-winds later will be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 That squall line is bowed out! I fear I'm too far east for the brunt of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Alot of trees here still holding ice-winds later will be interesting... Yep anything not touched by the sun is still completely encased in ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: That squall line is bowed out! I fear I'm too far east for the brunt of it. That's dropping southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 If that line holds together it will hit nyc right around the beginning of rush hour. I bet there aren’t any salt trucks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Wow from nothing to 250 foot visibility in less than a minute! This is awesome These were some of the biggest snow pellets I've ever seen when it started, now it's mostly small grains and big flakes. Cool frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Visibility dropped to .2 of a mile at FWN when the squall came through. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KFWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, weathermedic said: If that line holds together it will hit nyc right around the beginning of rush hour. I bet there aren’t any salt trucks out. Not until the next rain event. As always..... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Darn it I'm too far south of this thing though did just get a snow squall warning alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Cfa said: Light snow in Bridgeport. The entire landscape here was covered in ice this morning, very stark difference from NYC/Long Island. We were getting flurries in Stamford before. Nothing too exciting, but nice nonetheless. If you think the coast is ice though, just ten miles inland everything looks like glass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 That’s one of the better squalls we have seen in a while, maybe not as strong as the one last winter, but solid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Looks like it'll hold together to the coast. Surprised NE jersey doesn't have the warning as well. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Woohoo a quick 1/4" that stuck to everything because this whole place is a block of ice already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Squall warning for the city now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 It's nuts outside right now in Mahwah.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, Barman49 said: Looks like it'll hold together to the coast. Surprised NE jersey doesn't have the warning as well. Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk Don't need one. It won't last more than 10-12 minutes. It didn't here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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