donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: The MJO moving close to phase 5-6 around the holidays will amp the Pacific Jet up even more. It's beginning to feel a lot like... spring? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 8 hours ago, bluewave said: Remarkably consistent storm track pattern since last winter. Plenty of cutters through the Great Lakes and storms that hug the coast. Occasionally we see a weak disturbance in the Great Lakes acting to suppress a southern stream low. Rapidly deepening benchmark snowstorms have been missing. This is in stark contrast to our last excellent benchmark season in 2017-2018 which featured a 950mb benchmark blizzard. In some ways, the snowfall gradient is s throwback to earlier times. The heaviest snowfall amounts are higher inland and lower along the immediate South Shore Coast. This is a reversal from 2013 to 2018 where the heaviest snow falls occurred along the coastal plain. How long the is this type of unfavorable dominant Pacific Jet pattern lasts is anyone’s guess. A weak Nina or cold neutral would do good for most of us especially after a +ENSO season. The strong +IOD is definitely playing a role in strengthening the Pacific Jet which is also correlated with +ENSO anomalies. It's been a mediocre month. Hoping for a turn around come January-February. On a side note, would be nice to experience a Nor'easter as the biggest storms up here are usually between 12-16". Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 The 40s before xmas have been in the forecast for days. Wasnt this board talking about a snowstorm this weekend 24 hours ago? :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Mr. Spock's commentary on atmospheric models: "They are mere illusions---they can not tell us the coming weather---they are to be ignored" paraphrased from the episode Spectre of the Gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Variability will likely continue to define to weather into the closing week of December. As a result, much of the region could see perhaps additional snowfall through December 26, along with periodic intrusions of cold air. A short but sharp shot of cold will follow the system that will impact the region tonight into tomorrow with snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. Parts of the region could experience the lowest temperatures so far this season. New York City will likely see the temperature fall below 20° with one day where the high temperature remains in the middle or upper 20s. Another window of opportunity snowfall could be available during the December 21-23 timeframe. During that time, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to be negative. However, some of the latest guidance now shows a weakly positive NAO in combination with a negative PNA. As a result, the synoptic pattern looks less promising than it did a few days ago. Since 1950, 33% of storms that brought 4" or more snow during December 16-31 to just one city from among Philadelphia, New York City, or Boston had an AO- and 19% had an AO-/NAO-. However, from among the storms that brought 4" or more snow to at least two of those cities, 77% occurred with an AO- and 54% occurred with an AO-/NAO-. For the December 20-27 period overall, the temperature in such cities as Washington, Philadelphia, and New York could average somewhat above normal despite the cold start to the period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -15.00 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.986. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through December 25. Wave 2 activity is forecast to remain relatively weak. Overall, the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold into the middle of the fourth week of December on the EPS. On December 15, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.130 (RMM). The December 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.292. Differences for the closing days of December between the EPS and GEFS are narrowing. Consistent with the colder idea having prevailed more often than not since late autumn, the EPS has begun to move toward a colder solution for the end of December. When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms during the second half of December, the AO is highly important. Since 1950, December 16-31 has seen 15 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 73% occurred with an AO-. Further, 80% of the 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the AO was negative. Even as the PNA and NAO had a lesser impact on the 4" or greater snowstorms, an NAO- was present in 70% of the 6" or greater snowstorms during that timeframe and a PNA+ was also present during 70% of the 6" or greater snowstorms. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that December will wind up colder than normal in New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Hmm certainly looks cold for several days starting wed...low temps thru Sat look to be mainly in the teens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 The next 8 days are averaging 34.5degs., or about 1deg. BN. Month to date is -0.9[38.8]. Should be about -0.9[37.4] by the 25th. 34* here at 6am. 9am- Has been 35* for most of the last 3 hours. 37* at 10am. 35* by 3pm. EURO lone hold out with 2" for today, and that will have to do for the next 10 to 15 days, as other models are zippo, with unremarkable T's, after the next 2 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Looks like a 2-3 day Arctic outbreak before the mild Pacific influence returns over the weekend. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/17/2019 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 TUE 17| WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24 CLIMO X/N 40| 29 37| 17 26| 18 35| 27 38| 34 47| 37 49| 37 48 28 41 TMP 35| 31 29| 19 24| 20 34| 29 36| 36 44| 39 45| 39 45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like a 2-3 day Arctic outbreak before the mild Pacific influence returns over the weekend. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/17/2019 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 TUE 17| WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24 CLIMO X/N 40| 29 37| 17 26| 18 35| 27 38| 34 47| 37 49| 37 48 28 41 TMP 35| 31 29| 19 24| 20 34| 29 36| 36 44| 39 45| 39 45 Problem I have is it's not mild enough. If it's not going to snow prefer 50s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 The 0.82" precip so far has put me over the 60" YTD mark for the 2nd year in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: The Euro and GFS MOS have potential 50’s early next week. Thanks that would be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 16 hours ago, jfklganyc said: The 40s before xmas have been in the forecast for days. Wasnt this board talking about a snowstorm this weekend 24 hours ago? :/ Everyone was The pattern looked good for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Snow chances are most likely done for this month. Hopefully the 2nd half is better for the coast. I have a weird feeling that the coast will see a huge blizzard and that's it. Hopefully I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 I mean, i guess thats an inferno for us? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, BxEngine said: I mean, i guess thats an inferno for us? Yeah those +2° departures will roast you in Dec 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Next few days should be our last Arctic air mass for a while. The MJO forecast to move near phase 6 means mostly a mild Pacific influence into the longer range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Well, the 500mb anomaly for Christmas Day here is +120m and no snow will be on the ground---so this is good for a +10deg. day w/o considering wind direction and cloud cover. Make it 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, BxEngine said: I mean, i guess thats an inferno for us? 12 minutes ago, doncat said: Yeah those +2° departures will roast you in Dec Clearly temps there to roast weenies. Winter's over. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Yeah it doesn’t look nearly as warm as people on this board are saying but 40s are a good bet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: Next few days should be our last Arctic air mass for a while. The MJO forecast to move near phase 6 means mostly a mild Pacific influence into the longer range. Good bring on the spring-like weather. Had enough of this cold rain and if it's clearly not gonna snow then bring on the warmth. Tho in reality im looking at the indices particularly the AO and it looks mostly negative. MJO isn't guaranteed to enter phase 6 either so maybe not a crazy torch like 2015. Signs of a -EPO to start January paired with a -NAO/AO and good climo should lead to better outcomes after the torch ends. MJO could head towards phase 7/8 as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Good bring on the spring-like weather. Had enough of this cold rain and if it's clearly not gonna snow then bring on the warmth. The high temperatures after this Arctic shot will be mostly dependent on wind direction. Days with more SE flow and a high pressure to our NE will mostly max out in the 40’s. But any SW flow days could reach the 50’s between the 23rd and 31st. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 this is not even cold weather .growing up as a kid cold weather in december in nyc felt like the weather in siberia then the so called cold weather in december we are having the last few years.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Next few days should be our last Arctic air mass for a while. The MJO forecast to move near phase 6 means mostly a mild Pacific influence into the longer range. That’s such a weak amplitude wave I’m not sure it would have any major impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The high temperatures after this Arctic shot will be mostly dependent on wind direction. Days with more SE flow and a high pressure to our NE will mostly max out in the 40’s. But any SW flow days could reach the 50’s between the 23rd and 31st. The mostly -AO & neutral to negative -NAO favor the former. Our corner of the CONUS will probably continue to be much cooler vs the rest of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: That’s such a weak amplitude wave I’m not sure it would have any major impact I agree It's not going to get really warm . Low amplitude. More like normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: this is not even cold weather .growing up as a kid cold weather in december in nyc felt like the weather in siberia then the so called cold weather in december we are having the last few years.. growing up in the 1960's spoiled me...Decembers were very cold and there was snow for Christmas...1960 had four days in single digits...1968-69 had it's coldest temp in early Dec...1963-64 had its coldest week of the season the third week of Dec...they also had a few torch days and mild Christmas in 1964 and 1965...It snowed 3" on 12/20/64 but was gone by Christmas eve...It was 69 degrees Christmas day 1964...that was a shock to the system...today its becoming normal... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That’s such a weak amplitude wave I’m not sure it would have any major impact We don’t need very much amplitude in the MJO the to shift the CONUS back to a mild Pacific air mass. Look how much influence the low frequency WP forcing regime has had on the pattern going back to November. We Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 If the NAM verifies, conditions will become favorable late tomorrow afternoon and evening for scattered snow squalls ahead of our Arctic frontal passage. 8C/km lapse rates and best lift in the DGZ. This suggests some brief whiteout conditions are possible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 53 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Yeah it doesn’t look nearly as warm as people on this board are saying but 40s are a good bet Yea, normal temps are usually a good bet... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Yea, normal temps are usually a good bet... I didnt say normal. But low to mid 40s and scattered days of upper 40s in late Dec is hardly a “torch” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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