SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 22 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Mid level warmth is usually under forecasted in these setups. Almost every single time, I start hearing pingers after initial snow much sooner than progged. It is almost a given. Not in this case. This thing is strung out and weak. I'm more concerned with QPF amounts than I am mid level WAA. This is one that if we had a stronger disturbance could have dropped solid snow amounts. But I am skeptical at the moment this may trend drier and drier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 It’s like a muddy swamp out there. I just saw a mosquito with temperatures near 60 degrees here on Long Island. Farmingdale FOG 55 54 96 S8 29.45S VSB 1/4 MacArthur/ISP FOG 57 57 100 S10 29.45S VSB 1/4 Stony Brook N/A 59 57 94 W2 N/A Shirley FOG 59 57 93 S9 29.45F VSB 1/2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Not in this case. This thing is strung out and weak. I'm more concerned with QPF amounts than I am mid level WAA. This is one that if we had a stronger disturbance could have dropped solid snow amounts. But I am skeptical at the moment this may trend drier and drier. Any possibility of models picking up greater enhancement as we get closer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Multiple cars stranded on the Cross Island right now due to flooding. That’s a bad road with no shoulders and bad drainage. That used to be a bypass for the van wyck...Now it has more traffic than the van wyck! Pretty dense for up here in westchester for 10am. I thought it would lift as the day went on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Any possibility of models picking up greater enhancement as we get closer? The question is if the overrunning aspect can produce when it bumps into the high. You can see on most guidance and ensembles there is a period where the disturbance produces less QPF over OH/PA then invigorates again. That is somewhat suspect unless we see that invigoration as a result of overrunning because the disturbance itself is not much to love. One thing to like is the Euro likes this system and has been running hot lately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The question is if the overrunning aspect can produce when it bumps into the high. You can see on most guidance and ensembles there is a period where the disturbance produces less QPF over OH/PA then invigorates again. That is somewhat suspect unless we see that invigoration as a result of overrunning because the disturbance itself is not much to love. One thing to like is the Euro likes this system and has been running hot lately. Thanks for the analysis. What factors would strengthen overrunning? Stronger HP to our northeast or different positioning of the HP? Greater magnitude of blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s like a muddy swamp out there. I just saw a mosquito with temperatures near 60 degrees here on Long Island. Farmingdale FOG 55 54 96 S8 29.45S VSB 1/4 MacArthur/ISP FOG 57 57 100 S10 29.45S VSB 1/4 Stony Brook N/A 59 57 94 W2 N/A Shirley FOG 59 57 93 S9 29.45F VSB 1/2 That mosquito had to survive many many subfreezing hours since early November. Let it bite you...it probably has tonic that will let you live a long life I do notice temps on LI seem exceptionally warm this morning. +9 or 10 from rest of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s like a muddy swamp out there. I just saw a mosquito with temperatures near 60 degrees here on Long Island. Farmingdale FOG 55 54 96 S8 29.45S VSB 1/4 MacArthur/ISP FOG 57 57 100 S10 29.45S VSB 1/4 Stony Brook N/A 59 57 94 W2 N/A Shirley FOG 59 57 93 S9 29.45F VSB 1/2 That mosquito had to survive many many subfreezing hours since early November. Let it bite you...it probably has tonic that will let you live a long life I do notice temps on LI seem exceptionally warm this morning. +9 or 10 from rest of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Nam snow map anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: That mosquito had to survive many many subfreezing hours since early November. Let it bite you...it probably has tonic that will let you live a long life I do notice temps on LI seem exceptionally warm this morning. +9 or 10 from rest of the region Haha. Long Island hasn’t been that cold this month. Islip should be close -1 after the warmth today. This was the 4th day above 50 degrees in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1.91" rain total...Currently 50 degrees and foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Jb likes 3-6 from NYC to Boston 6" would be nice. That would put me at 20" so far in December, with still two weeks in the month left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 The LOL GFS thinks this is all rain for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Shirley is currently 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Anything worth discussing around Christmas week or the weekend before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Anything worth discussing around Christmas week or the weekend before? If you looked at the setup at 156 you'd think a big storm was coming on the GFS but it does not pan out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If you looked at the setup at 156 you'd think a big storm was coming on the GFS but it does not pan out A lot of time to sort that one out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If you looked at the setup at 156 you'd think a big storm was coming on the GFS but it does not pan out Wouldn't the strong negative AO and negative NAO keep it south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Wouldn't the strong negative AO and negative NAO keep it south? Nao isnt going to be strong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Anything worth discussing around Christmas week or the weekend before? The models have a split flow looking pattern. A northern stream low through the GL and a southern stream disturbance. Not much in the way of cold air with a dominant Pacific flow. A really amped low would kick up the ridge ahead of it. Too weak and the southern stream could slide south. We would probably need some type of amazing thread the needle to make this set up work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: The models have a split flow looking pattern. A northern stream low through the GL and a southern stream disturbance. Not much in the way of cold air with a dominant Pacific flow. A really amped low would kick up the ridge ahead of it. Too weak and the southern stream could slide south. We would probably need some type of amazing thread the needle to make this set up work. I dont think it would be thread the needle with the AO crashing and the NAO going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 The average forecast high for Central Park on December 13th is 44° so 50° is not a big deal. What's a big deal is temperatures in the teens for lows and highs in the 20s for Thursday and Friday this coming week really going to knock down the departures and looks very unlikely we'll finish with a positive departure for December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, binbisso said: The average forecast high for Central Park on December 13th is 44° so 50° is not a big deal. What's a big deal is temperatures in the teens for lows and highs in the 20s for Thursday and Friday this coming week really going to knock down the departures and looks very unlikely we'll finish with a positive departure for December 58 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: 58 here. CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park CLOUDY 50 50 100 NW3 29.42F FOG Bronx Lehman C N/A 50 48 93 NW3 N/A LaGuardia Arpt DRZL/FOG 50 48 93 NW7 29.40F VSB 3/4 Queens College N/A 54 54 100 S5 N/A Kennedy Intl LGT RAIN 54 54 100 CALM 29.41F FOG Breezy Point N/A 50 N/A N/A N2 N/A Brooklyn Coll N/A 54 52 94 NW3 N/A Staten Island N/A 50 50 100 NE5 N/A Newark/Liberty FOG 51 51 100 N7 29.40F VSB 1 Teterboro CLOUDY 51 51 100 NE5 29.39F FOG $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Warmest day of the month so far on Long Island. Shirley LGT RAIN 60 58 92 S13 29.42F FOG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Looking over 2meter temperatures on today's 12z Global's so far it looks like we will be below freezing from about 21 Z Wednesday through 18z Sunday. This is not way out in Fantasyland either starting in about 4 days. that would be a pretty impressive cold for this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 15 minutes ago, binbisso said: Looking over 2meter temperatures on today's 12z Global's so far it looks like we will be below freezing from about 21 Z Wednesday through 18z Sunday. This is not way out in Fantasyland either starting in about 4 days. that would be a pretty impressive cold for this time of year Not impressive by any means. Below average. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, Enigma said: Not impressive by any means. Below average. Yes. 10 to 15 degrees below normal for 5 days in this warm climate is pretty impressive to me especially with all the warm calls for December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 My Footage from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: I dont think it would be thread the needle with the AO crashing and the NAO going negative. The -AO and -NAO won’t matter if the fast Pacific flow doesn’t relax. Notice how the record Pacific Jet keeps knocking down the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now